Congress, BJP prepare for Karnataka

Hopeful of a favourable outcome in Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur and Punjab, the Congress has commenced preparations for the Assembly polls in Karnataka next year. It has also put systems in place for the Gujarat and Himachal Assembly polls which are due in November/December.
Former president, Rahul Gandhi, apparently met senior leaders from the southern state on Thursday to take stock of the situation. Former Chief Minister, Siddaramaiah, who is likely to be the face of the party, PCC president, D.K. Shiva Kumar, Mallikarjun Kharge, B.K. Hari Prasad, M.B. Patil, Veerappa Moily, Dinesh Gundu Rao, B.V. Sriniwas, G. Parmeshwar, K.H. Muniyappa, K.J. George and H.K. Patil were amongst those who came to New Delhi for the meeting.
The prevailing opinion is that the BJP was in a vulnerable position, particularly after the removal of B.S. Yediyurappa and a change at the top was on cards. In fact, the current Chief Minister, Basavraj Bommai had in December itself triggered speculation about his imminent exit when he had stated that nothing in politics was permanent, not even positions.
Although state BJP chief Nalin Kumar Kateel has denied that Bommai was on his way out, party insiders believe that he may be replaced soon after the 10 March declaration of results of the five states. Unsubstantiated allegations doing the rounds of political circles suggest that the CM’s personal indulgences and the role of a close relative in a crypto currency scandal could be the reason of his being sacked.
The BJP central leadership is keen that before any major setback occurs for the party in the southern state, where it has considerable presence, it should get into damage control. Those who are likely to be in the reckoning are Jagdish Shettar, a Lingayat leader, who was the Chief Minister for 11 months after BSY had quit in 2012, Prahlad Joshi, a Brahmin face, Murugesh Nirani, also a Lingayat, and Aravind Limbavali, who is an OBC from the same caste as Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The challenge before the BJP is to either have a Lingayat as the head of the government since this dominant community has been the backbone of the saffron brigade or have an OBC to expand its base in the state. Either way, the BJP without Yediyurappa will find the going very tough.
The Congress meeting, on the other hand, was inconclusive and most of the leaders who were in the capital were part of a list drawn by D.K. Shiva Kumar. This list omitted some prominent seniors such as R.V. Deshpande, a Brahmin and Zameer Ahmed Khan, the most recognisable face of the Muslim community. In fact, Randeep Surjewala, general secretary in-charge, appeared upset by these exclusions.
Rahul Gandhi is understood to have spent some time with the leaders and later reportedly asked Siddaramaiah that he would wish to have a one-on-one meeting with him, sometime in April. This was viewed as a signal as to who would be the CM face. The high command does not seem visibly pleased with D.K. Shiva Kumar and may be contemplating a change at the top.
The thinking within the Congress is that it has to ready itself for both the 2023 Assembly elections and the 2024 Parliamentary polls. It is paramount that the party should woo the dominant Lingayat community in order to enhance its chances. In this connection, there are many in the Congress who would want former state Home Minister, M.B. Patil to assume charge of the organisation since he is the most popular Lingayat leader after BSY.
Calculation wise also, Lingayats constitute 17-18% of the state’s total population and have considerable presence in 21 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats and also can influence the outcome in four other constituencies. At present there are 12 Lingayat MPs in the Lok Sabha, which indicates their overall strength.
On the other hand, Vokkaligas, the community to which Shiva Kumar belongs, has presence in five seats; and in 20 Parliamentary constituencies, there is not even a single Vokkaliga household, according to knowledgeable sources. The Vokkaligas, by and large, support former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda, and thus their backing the Congress appears to be a distant option in the Assembly polls.
For the record, the last time the Congress got an absolute majority on its own in the state was in 1989 when Veerendra Patil, a Lingayat who had lost to Indira Gandhi from Chikmagalur in the late 1970s became the Chief Minister by securing 179 out of 224 seats. Therefore, the indications are that the Congress may enter the fray with Siddaramaiah as the CM face and a prominent Lingayat such as M.B. Patil as the state party chief.
In the BJP, the power struggle has already commenced and CM aspirants are lobbying hard through their proxies in Delhi. The final decision would rest on Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, who would certainly look at all the aspects before arriving at a decision. The BJP desperately needs to retain Karnataka in order to have a foothold in the South.
What most political observers agree is that Bommai, who was BSY’s nominee, is certainly going to be out. Amongst factors that go against him is the poor performance of the BJP in the Legislative Council polls where instead of 18, the party was able to get only 11 members elected, the same as the Congress. Besides, the BJP lost a byelection on the CM’s home turf.
It shall be a Congress versus BJP clash in Karnataka that would be eagerly awaited. Between us.