Kolkata: The I.N.D.I.A bloc, once projected as a formidable challenge to the BJP-led NDA government, is now rapidly disintegrating. With the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) declaring its decision to contest the upcoming Bihar elections independently, the fragile unity of the opposition bloc has begun to unravel. Despite receiving open support from the RJD in the Delhi elections, AAP has announced it will contest all seats in Bihar, revealing a clear intent to damage the Congress electorally. AAP blames Congress for its defeat in Delhi and alleges that the party deliberately targeted Muslim-majority constituencies to undercut AAP’s performance. In retaliation, AAP’s new strategy is to ensure Congress’s defeat wherever possible — not necessarily to win, but to divide votes and weaken it strategically. While AAP has little electoral base in Bihar, its objective is to erode Congress’s support. Simultaneously, AAP has begun strengthening its presence in states like Uttarakhand, Gujarat, and Goa, signalling a broader shift away from a collective opposition strategy. Following suit, doubts are growing over the NCP (SP)’s long-term commitment to the I.N.D.I.A bloc. The party’s refusal to support the opposition’s demand for a Lok Sabha debate on ‘Operation Sindoor’ has raised clear signs of a possible future split. The very survival of the I.N.D.I.A bloc now hinges on the outcome of the upcoming Bihar elections. A defeat could prompt the Samajwadi Party and other regional players to chart their own course in Uttar Pradesh. In states like Kerala and West Bengal, Congress already faces existential challenges. In Bengal, the contest is now directly between the TMC and BJP — with Congress virtually absent. In Kerala, the traditional two-front politics is shifting. Congress has been out of power for a decade, lacks senior leadership, and Rahul Gandhi’s reliance on a completely new team has sidelined experienced politicians. The party’s internal dissent became glaring post-Operation Sindoor, especially with MP Shashi Tharoor openly criticising the party line and appearing to align with the ruling government. The BJP, on its part, is determined to block a Congress comeback in Kerala for the third consecutive term. All eyes are on the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a crucial Congress ally in the state. The IUML could reconsider its association, seeing the weakening position of Congress at the Centre — a potential move that would deal a heavy blow to the party. In Kerala’s Neelambur by-election, a constituency under Priyanka Gandhi’s Wayanad seat, the TMC’s entry has further muddied the waters for Congress. Former Congress MLA P.V. Anwar is now contesting under the TMC banner, turning the seat into a multi-cornered contest. If Congress loses the June 19 vote, it will be a major embarrassment and a further sign of the party’s shrinking ground. TMC is already preparing to contest aggressively in next year’s Kerala Assembly elections — another bad omen for Congress. In Bengal, the TMC has already sidelined Congress, leaving BJP as its primary opponent. The BJP’s previous success in winning over 70 seats in Bengal, and the active focus of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah on the state, signal a continued squeeze on Congress’s relevance there. Just a year ago, the I.N.D.I.A bloc appeared poised to destabilise the NDA government. But internal fractures became evident during the Speaker and Deputy Speaker elections, with the TMC defying Congress’s strategy. The alliance never managed to agree on a PM face for 2024. Despite high hopes, Congress’s missteps in state elections — losses in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi — pulled the alliance back into crisis mode. These setbacks shattered the alliance’s momentum. Within six months, meetings stopped, coordination failed, and enthusiasm vanished. Operation Sindoor further exposed the alliance’s vulnerabilities. Now, even the joint demand for a special Parliament session has failed to unite the bloc. Key allies like AAP, NCP (SP), the Left, TMC, and possibly the SP and Shiv Sena (UBT) are already drifting away. The National Conference has effectively exited. Most partners are disillusioned. A defeat in Bihar could collapse the Mahagathbandhan and put RJD’s survival at risk too. The I.N.D.I.A bloc, once full of promise, now teeters on the edge of collapse — its unity undermined, its leadership questioned, and its future bleak.
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