LONDON: “Do you think Vladimir Putin will be going to the Miss Universe Pageant in Moscow this November,” tweeted the owner of the pageant, Donald Trump, in 2013. “If so, will he become my new best friend?”. So started a love affair between the property developerturned-politician, and the KGB spy-turned-politician, described by many as the most enduring and significant geopolitical bromance in recent years.
During the presidential election campaign three years later, Trump time and time again broke from political orthodoxy by showering praise on the Russian president. “Putin has become a big hero in Russia – a man so highly respected within his own country and beyond” he tweeted. Putin returned the praise, saying that Trump “is a very talented man and really a leader in many ways. He’s a bright and talented person, no doubt about that”.
This mutual admiration society continued throughout Trump’s first presidency, when he repeatedly praised Putin saying things like “I think he’s a strong leader”, even calling him a “genius” on multiple occasions. When Putin ordered the illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022 Trump, who was out of office at the time and facing numerous legal challenges, described Putin’s move as “pretty savvy!” Over the past nine years, officials on either side of the Atlantic have been frequently puzzled and even alarmed by how comfortably Trump engaged with Putin. His actions were often at odds with the US intelligence consensus and NATO positions, raising concerns that he might be allowing Russia to guide negotiations or delay meaningful resolutions.
The prime example was in July 2018 when the two leaders met during a high-profile summit in Helsinki. Saying that he wanted a more private and candid conversation with the Russian president, Trump insisted that none of the usual staff or note-takers should be present. Just himself, Putin and a translator. The optics of the occasion inevitably sparked controversy as the meeting deviated from standard diplomatic protocol. Was a highly vulnerable Donald Trump subject to manipulation or pressure from the canny Russian president? As there was no official record of the conversation, what was agreed upon behind closed doors? Did Donald Trump make any promises or concessions to Vladimir Putin, unrecorded because of the absence of staff? At the concluding press-conference, Trump infuriated his own aides and stunned Republicans when he decided not to side with US intelligence on Russian interference in the 2016 election. “President Putin says it’s not Russia”, Trump told the reporter when asked if he believed his own intelligence agencies or the Russian president. “I don’t see any reason why it would be”, he added, effectively defending Putin.
This prompted much internal debate, public criticism and suspicion. Throughout his time in office, during both Trump 1.0 and now 2.0, US advisers and NATO leaders have repeatedly expressed bewilderment at Trump’s messaging on Russia, particularly when he appeared more accommodating to Putin than aligned with Western allies. From his many years in the Soviet Union’s secret service and twentyfive continuous years at the top in Russia, Vladimir Putin has a huge tactical advantage over Donald Trump. Analysts see Putin as a cunning and consummate negotiator who can charm and unsettle people, Trump included, leveraging the US president’s ego and personality to gain the upper hand. Critics say that over the years Putin was frequently seen to be “stringing Trump along”, while the Donald was perceived as extending “unusual patience” in negotiations where Russia has shown little actual movement. Trump has consistently been overestimating his personal rapport with Putin, who continued to offer symbolic gestures without real concessions. But the penny has finally dropped with the US president. Donald Trump at last seems to have realised that Vladimir Putin has been playing him for a fool over Ukraine.
Throughout much of this year, Putin has been busy baiting and then switching Trump. Almost every day, the Kremlin has appeared to offer the White House some apparent peace gesture, yet for every olive branch Putin offers with his right hand, he continues to hammer Ukrainian civilians with his left. Despite ongoing US-led peace talks, June saw a new monthly record for the number of long-range drones and missiles launched by Russia into Ukraine – 5,438 drones and 239 missiles, according to figures published by the Ukrainian air force. The savage onslaught continues this month.
Overnight Wednesday, Russia launched a massive combined strike on Kyiv which lasted 10 hours and consisted of 397 drones of various types – among them nearly 200 Iranian-designed Shahed attack craft – and 18 missiles. At least 2 people were killed and 22 others injured, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday. Although Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed on Telegram that it “carried out a group strike using high-precision long-range weapons against military-industrial complex facilities”, copious visual evidence shows that the majority of targets were civilian homes. “I’m not happy with Putin. I can tell you that much right now”, said Donald Trump last Tuesday at a cabinet meeting, displaying his increasing frustration with the Russian president. “We get a lot of bull***t thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth. He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless”. “It may not have been Churchillian in oratorical flourish”, said Patrick Wintour in the Guardian on Wednesday, “and with Trump everything is capable of being reversed in hours, but possibly the rupture between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump has happened. If so, it is a transformatory moment”.
Exasperated by the Russian president’s reluctance to sign off on a ceasefire with Kyiv and with the new images of violence in Ukraine, Trump has expressed a rare public anger at Putin while privately mulling a series of sanctions designed to force Moscow to the negotiating table. Trump is clearly frustrated that Putin doesn’t seem to want to end the war and has started to feel humiliated that the Russian president is simply “tapping him along”. After the cabinet meeting last week, Trump suggested that he was open to imposing fresh sanctions on Moscow, following the US Senate’s Bill proposing additional penalties. When asked about it, Trump replied “I’m looking at the details very strongly”. Pundits are predicting that the Bill will be modified to give Trump complete discretion over whether or not to press ahead with sanctions. If he does decide to impose steeper sanctions on Russia, such as 500 percent tariffs on those countries buying Russian oil, gas, uranium and other key exports, it would have a major effect on the Russian economy. It would also be music to the ears of Ukraine’s President Zelensky.
The imposition of severe sanctions on Moscow, plus the resumption of US weapons to Ukraine, would be clear signs of the beginning of the end of the bromance between Trump and Putin. In his first term, Trump’s administration sanctioned Moscow for a variety of misdeeds, such as sponsoring election interference and cyber-hacking. But the American president has long been reluctant to punish Russia in any meaningful way. If he carries out the latest threat of sanctions, and it’s a big “if”, this would be a major change in relations between the two countries. Critics warn, however, that Donald Trump has the propensity to flip back and forth on issues – and on people – all the time. Will he really apply the kind of pressure that might, just might, cause Putin to pause the onslaught on Ukraine? With Trump you never know, and that’s part of the problem. His abrupt shifts in policy and tone, reversed decisions, extended deadlines and ultimatums, and whiplash diplomacy may have worked in the real-estate business deals in New York. But this is the big league, and Vladimir Putin knows that Trump’s bark is frequently worse than his bite.
America’s European allies appear to be far from convinced that Trump’s current mood will last. In an interview with NBC News on Thursday, Trump said “I’m disappointed in Russia, but we’ll see what happens in the next couple of weeks. I think I have a major statement to make on Russia on Monday.” He refused to elaborate further on what he will announce tomorrow. But then, Donald Trump loves to keep everyone guessing. Especially about his bromance with Vladimir Putin.
