LONDON: Classified war games are common in the Ministry of Defence, they are used to “stress-test” scenarios, strategies and various war-time challenges. “The Wargame” podcast was devised by Sky News and Tortoise Media; it imagines how a Russian attack on the UK could play out; real-life former ministers and war experts brainstorm how to defend UK, the scenario is unlikely but potentially catastrophic; it pinpoints Britain’s current weaknesses.
The Wargame was released before the launch of the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) commissioned by PM Keir Starmer and compiled by Lord George Robertson, General Sir Richard Barrons (who played the part of CDS in The Wargame), and Dr Fiona Hill; it recommends the biggest changes to the Army, Navy and Air Force in 150 years. In his statement Starmer refers to the failure of supply chains during the Pandemic as an example of why national resilience matters today, and how he wants to galvanize innovation and procurement at a “wartime pace”.
John Healey, Defence Secretary, expands the theme of managing a new era of state-level confrontation, with Russia foremost for UK today, and how technology is changing Defence organisation, equipment and method. The SDR identified the need to address a wide range of threats to domestic security – from terrorism, serious organised crime, and extremism to state threats.
The Wargame was an introduction to this new potential reality. General Sir Richard Barrons advises that the newly empowered National Armaments Director (NAD) is a core element of the MoD’s broader top-level reform process. The MoD has created a NAD responsible across innovation, streamlined acquisition, digital acquisition, logistics, support, and infrastructure. The Defence Secretary now has four senior people reporting to him: the Permanent Under-Secretary of State leading the Department of State, the Chief of Defence Staff leading the new Military Strategic HQ, the NAD and the Chief of Defence Nuclear.
Barrons said the name of the winning candidate for the NAD was on Starmer’s desk, with announcement expected as soon as possible. Barrons explains that the SDR and the Defence Reform process have created a new industrial partnership to enable the UK’s armed forces to evolve at the speed of Digital Age innovation, most of which comes from the Private Sector.
At the heart of the transformation of the Armed Forces into an ‘Integrated Force’ are two key concepts. First, the centrality of a Digital Targeting Web (DTW) that connects every sensor (wherever it is) through data in secure cloud that is managed by AI, to every weapons system (wherever it is). Second, Navies, Armies and Air Forces will evolve constantly and rapidly as a mix of crewed, uncrewed and (increasingly) autonomous systems.
The UK SDR has the creation of a DTW as one of its driving, early recommendations. It will give UK a decisive military advantage in identifying, prioritising and destroying targets through greater integration across all domains and with allies. A threat could be identified by a sensor on a ship or in space before being disabled by an F-35 aircraft, drone, or offensive cyber operation. Barrons reckons that DTW are now a universal concept, with NATO, China, US and no doubt India building these “Kill Webs” – eventually with the range to see and strike anywhere on the globe.
The opportunity for India now is in how it can find a leading role in developing the software that drives DWTs, and how it designs and builds especially the new autonomous platforms in the air, on land and at sea. India should be a leading player in this enduring global industrial competition, and that may include investigating how Indian innovation and competitive pricing leads to production under license in Europe. Based on the lessons of war in Ukraine the UK has adopted a new munitions strategy to deliver greater resilience and the ability to surge when necessary. It is based on making more in the UK, doing so on an “always on” basis so production can be significantly increased in times of crisis.
This too is creating new commercial opportunities. As part of the SDR the British Army under General Sir Roly Walker, Chief of the General Staff, is transforming to a completely new model known as ‘20/40/40’. It is based on 20% of the Army being survivable platforms like tanks and helicopters, 40% being ‘attritable’ uncrewed and autonomous platforms like drones that can survive for many missions, and 40% in consumable systems such as shells, missiles and cheap drones. This will drive the organisation of the British Army as it steps up to be one of the two new Strategic Reserve Corps for NATO.
The world is evolving ‘lethal autonomous weapons systems’, which means weapons capable of killing people without a ‘human in the loop’. The Samsungmanufactured machine gun used in the Demilitarised Zone between North and South Korea was cited as an early example. Robots in all military environments will continue this evolution: they will be cheaper to buy and operate, able to work faster, harder and longer and in conditions that people cannot.
This will bring very significant ethical and legal issues, for example facial recognition capability can be linked to databases of an entire population and acted on by machines able to kill without reference to a human master. Presently it is UK policy to have an operator in control of systems, partly because AI is not safe or reliable enough yet. What is in no doubt is there is now a global competition to develop these systems and they cannot be just wished away. It will take time and resources to achieve enough transformation for the UK military to maintain the right level of deterrence based on the clearly credible ability to fight. This transformation is made much harder because UK armed forces are in the condition created by transiting 35 years of relatively comfortable and risk free postCold War era.
The realisation that the US is going to do much less for European security significantly deepens the challenge. The SDR recognises the imperative for UK to engage in the collective security of allies and partners; this has led to a NATO-First but not a NATO-only plan, given the UK’s considerable global interests, relationships and responsibilities.
This is evident in the AUKUS agreement, based primarily on building nuclear submarines in Australia and the presence of the UK Carrier Group now in the Pacific for a few months. The future of Ukraine is the crucible of European security today. The US has made clear that Europe must take greater responsibility for Ukraine, this will mean an increased flow of weapons to Ukraine, paid for by the European taxpayer. Just as important is the likelihood of much harder sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas-based economy.
The key point for the UK is that securing an acceptable outcome for Ukraine is essential to setting the terms for the European relationship with Russia for years to come. General Sir Richard Barrons co-led the UK’s first independent Strategic Defence Review, Formerly, he served as Commander of the Joint Forces Command, now Sir Richard is co-Chairman of Universal Defence and Security Solutions Ltd.
