TWO YEARS OF WAR
This week marks the second anniversary of the 7/10 attacks by Hamas on Israel. That heinous assault and the Israeli retaliation plunged the entire Middle East into turmoil. The past two years have seen the relentless pounding of Gaza, a state of near-war between Israel and Lebanon, and the decapitation of the Hezbollah leadership by ingenious use of explosive-laced pagers. It also saw a change in regime in Syria, with the Hayat Tahrir al Sham storming into power in Damascus, and the bombing of Syrian ports, airfields and military installations by Israel. Drone and missile exchanges between Israel and Iran eventually culminated in an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities by Israel and the USA in a tense 12-day exchange of fire. And finally came the Israeli strike in Qatar itself, striking at Hamas leaders sheltering in Doha. And to add to all this, the latest Israeli offensive towards Gaza City has just been launched, which will add considerably to the toll of over 65,000 dead and over 1.5 million Gazans displaced in the beleaguered enclave.
But the peace plan recently unveiled by President Donald Trump and endorsed by Netanyahu provides a faint glimmer. At face value, the 20-point “Comprehensive Plan to end the Gaza Conflict” seems like a fairly balanced proposition. It calls for a complete cessation of hostilities and the resumption of aid to Gaza. Israel is to cease all military action and within 72 hours Hamas is to return all hostages—or their remains—to Israel. Around 48 hostages are still held in Gaza, of which 20 are presumed to be still alive. Israel will release almost 2,000 prisoners held in Israeli jails and hand over the remains of 15 Gazans for every Israeli. The most critical part calls for Hamas to disarm and surrender their weapons. Those “Who decommission their weapons will be given amnesty and safe passage to go wherever they choose.” The feasibility of Hamas fighters surrendering their weapons and then leaving the enclave is one of the stumbling blocks of the deal. They would be fearing that once they hand over the hostages and surrender their weapons, they would have no guarantees, and Israel could simply re-start their actions.
THE PEACE PROPOSAL
The deal also calls for an Israeli withdrawal in a phased manner. But the loophole exists in which they would be permitted to maintain a “security perimeter presence.” This implies that they could create a “buffer zone”, which could extend to a kilometre or so inside the already narrow enclave, and in the worst case, include the occupation of all of northern Gaza. The absence of clear-cut maps and timelines leave scope for misinterpretation later.
An ambitious plan for the reconstruction and stabilisation of Gaza has also been laid out. “The Day after Plan” calls for an International Stabilisation Force made up of US, Arab and international nations to oversee the implementation of the peace process, and enable a transitional government to take over the restructuring of devastated Gaza. The Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas would presumably take over the governance of Gaza, but how capable would they be, and whether they would be allowed to function at all, is the moot question. The International Stabilisation Force will function under a grandly named “Board of Peace” headed by none other than Donald Trump himself, with former UK Prime Minister, Tony Blair as chairman. (The same Tony Blair, who lied about Iraq possessing weapons of mass destruction, and whose credibility in the Arab world is low). In other words, Trump and his companies will also get the lucrative contracts for the reconstruction of Gaza, which will be funded by Arab nations.
One of the major aspects of this plan is that it calls for, “A credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.” The inclusion of the long-term aim of Palestinian statehood is a major clause which has been repeatedly pushed under the carpet. But then, it is a demand which cannot be ignored any longer. Israel has crossed the line with its actions in Gaza and blatant strikes in other sovereign states like Iran, Syria and Qatar, and now more and more nations are veering towards the idea of an independent Palestinian state—something which had been envisaged since the creation of Israel itself. Australia, Canada, Britain, France and Portugal have recently recognised the state of Palestine and 13 nations, including India, voted in favour of the “two-state solution” in the UNGA meeting last month. Of course, US support to Israel and the exercise of its veto power, make these actions little more than symbolic gestures—but they are indicative of the international mood which is turning against Israel. Israel is now being isolated in every forum—even sports. The Union of European Football Association moved towards banning Israeli participation, and calls have been increasing to ban Israel from international sports—in much the same manner that Russia was banned after its attack on Ukraine. Even their blockade of Gaza is being challenged with an international aid flotilla sailing towards Gaza to deliver much needed aid there. All this has finally helped put the pressure on Netanyahu to put an end to the needless carnage.
While the creation of an independent Palestinian state is the crux of the issue, Israel has repeatedly ensured that it will not materialise. The Oslo accord of 1993 (which got Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat the Nobel Peace Prize) envisaged an independent state of Palestine encompassing the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza, co-existing with Israel. But the promised self-rule and autonomy has never materialised. The Palestinian Authority has been bottled up in the West Bank with little say or finances, and no control over Gaza. Israel has also authorised the construction of 3,600 new settlements in the West Bank, which will effectively cut it into two and divide it in a Northern and Southern pocket—with Gaza out on a limb on the other side. This would make the very territory required for an independent state unviable.
India has welcomed the initiative. After all, we are heavily dependent on peace in the Middle East for everything from our oil, our diaspora, investments and even the creation of the India-Middle East-Europe corridor. But what is worrying is the strategic shift that has come about in the region. Iran has been sidelined and our own Chahbahar port is hit hard by renewed US sanctions. Qatar, in spite of its bombing by Israel, has been mollified by an apology from Netanyahu, and has entered into a security pact with USA. Saudi Arabia too is eyeing a similar pact. All this will make US influence in the region overarching. And of course, Pakistan’s security pact with Saudi Arabia “where an attack on one, will be considered as an attack on the other” could also draw other Arab states in its ambit. All this could impact Indian influence and goodwill in this critically vital region.
Hamas has eventually agreed to the release of hostages, and Israel agreed to pause its grinding offensive towards Gaza City in the first phase of the deal. That in itself is a relief. After two years of war, it is unlikely that the peace deal—even if implemented fully—will resolve the issue completely. It would take many years of mature diplomacy and much give-and-take between all parties for a permanent solution to be finally found. But it may just offer a reprieve. And that reprieve itself could just be a blessing for the long-suffering citizens of Gaza. And of course, it could get Trump his much-coveted Nobel Peace Prize—along with lucrative contracts for the reconstruction of Gaza.
Ajay Singh is the international award-winning author of eight books and over 250 articles. He is a regular contributor to The Sunday Guardian.
