Union Home Minister Amit Shah made a very matter of fact statement on who the next Chief Minister of Bihar would be. Answering a query put forward by a TV journalist, Shah was candid when he admitted that the NDA in the present elections was being led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. However, he added that after the polls, the leadership issue in the event of an NDA victory, would be decided by the various alliance partners as also the newly elected legislators. In other words, the issue of who would be the next CM is open and has not been settled as yet. There has been speculation that the BJP, which is likely to once again emerge as the single largest party amongst its coalition partners at least, would take a call on the leadership question and if the Maharashtra formula was to be replicated, then there is every possibility that the next CM may be from the BJP itself. That is if the NDA is victorious. While there are hiccups in the alliance, with many partners not happy with the seat distribution formula, overall, the NDA is certainly in a better position than the Mahagathbandhan, which is in a state of confusion. The Congress and the RJD have not been able to resolve their dispute regarding some seats and with Rahul Gandhi not taking as much interest as he should in the Bihar elections, the grand old party appears to be slipping from a position of advantage, many thought it was in following the Leader of Opposition’s yatras. The NDA’s caste equations have been worked out very well and the key to the outcome is the way the women would vote. The state government’s schemes have had a resonance and various surveys have indicated that women hold the key as they did in Maharashtra. The surveys have also put Nitish Kumar as the favourite CM aspirant, but politics has its own way of unfolding when it matters. There have been doubts raised over Nitish Kumar’s well-being but despite all these factors, he is very popular. Nevertheless, his popularity would be measured only when the results come out on November 14th. Prashant Kishor, the poll strategist who is a favourite of the electronic media, has declared that he himself would not be contesting the polls, something which has surprised many and led to all kinds of stories of his being mixed up with one larger party or the other. Prashant, in his meetings, did get a very good response, and it has to be seen whether the attendance would be translated into votes when the polling takes place. The Jan Suraaj Party, has yet to acquire a proper organizational network and is completely dependent on the people’s support. The large attendance at Prashant Kishor’s meetings as also the huge turnout when Rahul Gandhi held his rallies and Yatra, does indicate that people of the state are looking for an alternative to both the Lalu Prasad Yadav family and the JDU. However, it is to be seen whether this alternative would actually materialize in the post poll scenario. Prashant has fielded candidates on all the seats but his keeping away from the electoral battle appears to be rather strange. He is being accused of letting the people down after taking them up the garden path and also there is a view that his opting out may help the BJP, since the upper caste votes, which were gravitating towards him, may now settle for the saffron brigade. Bihar polls have always been a very complex affair. Castes and various kinds of political combinations and permutations impact the outcome. The NDA has its arithmetic worked out but the RJD is banking both on the anti-incumbency factor as well as its own calculations. Tejashwi is leading the formation and has challenged the NDA in its own strongholds. Incidentally, Prashant Kishor’s most aggressive poll issues were all directed against Tejashwi and at one point, he had himself stated that he would be taking on the RJD leader in a head-on fight in his own constituency. This was before he backed out and claimed that his party had decided that he should not be in the fray. The question is how much would Tejashwi make up, with the Congress and other allies not being able to supplement his efforts. Rahul Gandhi’s indifference to the poll process is also inexplicable. After putting so much of effort, he was not on the ground when it would have helped. He was first abroad, and then in various other states, other than Bihar. His absence was conspicuous and is a talking point in political circles. The Congress has no organizational structure in the state and has too many factions. Those close to the former party chief, are often blamed for not doing enough, and it is in this context he should have been hands on. Overall, the Bihar contest is going to pave the way for the BJP in particular. The party has put everything on hold to get past this election. There is no doubt that the saffron brigade is far ahead of its rivals so far as its preparedness goes. It has everything worked out. While it is always risky to second guess the outcome but the way things are, and going by what Amit Shah stated, Bihar could spring some surprises. A BJP-led government could be one such surprise. Between us.
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