New Delhi: The NDA did not win Bihar because of any single wave, scheme or caste bloc. It won because five different streams of politics—women’s mobilisation, welfare saturation, caste recalibration, development optics and opposition disarray—aligned almost perfectly in its favour, transforming what began as a tight, uncertain contest into one of the most decisive mandates in the state’s recent political history. Until the mid-point of campaigning, both alliances privately believed the race could go either way. But as Nitish Kumar intensified his outreach, women voters began consolidating, welfare benefits visibly hit the ground, and the caste arithmetic stabilised with the return of Paswan, Kushwaha and Manjhi, the contest tilted and eventually broke open. By the end of polling, the NDA had built a broad, layered coalition that the Mahagathbandhan could not counter—neither in message, nor in organisation, nor in credibility.
What followed was a sweeping victory: the NDA won 202 of 243 seats. The JDU surged to 85 seats, nearly doubling its 2020 tally. The BJP rose to 89 seats. Chirag Paswan’s LJP(R), fielding candidates across a defined spread, captured 19 seats. HAM added five seats, and the RLM won four. Together, they stitched a durable bloc of OBCs, EBCs, Dalits, women voters and lower-middle-class households that proved unbeatable. A large part of this mandate was driven by an unprecedented mobilisation of women voters. Bihar has 3.51 crore women voters, and 1.34 crore of them are part of the Jeevika SHG (self-help group) network. The government’s transfer of Rs 10,000 each to 1.21 crore Jeevika Didis created a political shockwave on the ground. The benefit touched roughly 35% of all women voters and influenced more than 3.6 crore votes when measured at household level. The scheme became so widely recognised that it was popularly called the “10 hazariya” across rural Bihar. Women’s turnout soared to 71.6%, far ahead of the men’s turnout of 62.8%.
This surge—combined with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s launch of the Jeevika Nidhi Sahakari Sangh, a digital cooperative promising low-interest credit—created a perception of stability and continuity that heavily favoured the NDA. In addition, increased honorariums for ASHA and Mamta workers strengthened support among frontline female health workers. The NDA also secured a substantial advantage among economically vulnerable and lower-middle-class households. Its decision to provide 125 units of free electricity to 1.67 crore households directly affected millions of families. This translated into monthly savings of Rs 300 to Rs 700 depending on region and consumption. The Opposition promised 200 units of free electricity, but that offer failed to pierce the credibility that the NDA had already established with actual delivery. The alliance’s hold over elderly and dependent voters strengthened when the government raised pensions from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100 for 1.11 crore beneficiaries. The Opposition countered with a promise of Rs 1,500 and annual increments, but voters leaned toward visible, already-delivered gains rather than promises.
Youths also played a significant role. The Rs 1,000 per month unemployment allowance to graduates aged 20-25, already reaching 7.6 lakh beneficiaries at a cost of Rs 76 crore per month, gave the NDA a clear presence among first-time voters. The government’s promise to create employment or job support for one crore youths by 2030 added weight to its appeal. Students benefitted from interest waivers on education loans, with repayment periods extended from five to seven years for loans up to Rs 2 lakh and from seven to ten years for larger loans, influencing nearly four lakh students. Caste arithmetic was the second major pillar of the NDA’s structural advantage. The alliance fielded an extremely calibrated ticket set: 85 upper castes, 39 Dalits, 37 Kurmi-Koeris, 29 EBCs, 27 Vaishyas, 19 Yadavs, five Muslims and two Adivasis. The return of Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha proved decisive. Paswan voters, making up 5.32% of the state’s population, influence nearly 50 seats spread across Darbhanga, Samastipur, Saharsa, Khagaria, Begusarai and adjoining regions. Chirag’s presence helped the BJP but also unexpectedly boosted the JDU in several tight contests. Kushwaha voters, 4.27% of the population, influence nearly 70 seats across Shahabad, Magadh, Tirhut and parts of Mithila and Seemanchal; the RLM’s presence consolidated non-Yadav OBC votes.
Equally critical was the Musahar community, which at 3.08% of the population influences 35 seats across South Bihar. Constituencies such as Imamganj, Barachatti, Koershara, Tekari, Agiyaon, Alouli and Cheriya Bariyarpur come within this belt. Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM contested six of these seats and won five, giving the NDA a strong presence in Dalit-Mahadalit pockets where elections were closely contested. Beyond caste and welfare, infrastructure and development optics played a major role. The inauguration of the long-awaited Purnea airport by the Prime Minister—affecting 24 constituencies in Seemanchal—delivered a decisive regional boost. The opening of Begusarai’s six-lane cable-stayed bridge, one of Asia’s largest multi-span extradosed structures, influenced voters across 33 seats spanning North and South Bihar. The foundation for the Janaki Temple at Punora Dham in Sitamarhi, modelled on the Ram Temple, sent out a cultural message that the BJP believes will resonate in the long run. Analysts see this as a potential shift toward a more overt Hindutva layer in Bihar’s politics.
Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan struggled with disunity, organisational gaps and messaging failures. Seat-sharing battles persisted until the last days of nomination withdrawal, and candidates from Congress, RJD and the Left ended up competing against each other in at least nine constituencies—Bachhwara, Bihar Sharif, Rajapakar, Vaishali, Sikandra, Kahalgaon, Sultanganj, Karaghar and Chenpur. This led to substantial vote splitting and delivered easy victories to the NDA. The Opposition’s messaging was inconsistent. Its early focus on Special Investigation Reports, alleged vote theft and questions around Nitish Kumar’s health fell flat after the Chief Minister responded by addressing 181 rallies in 25 days—averaging seven public meetings daily—neutralising claims about his fitness. Rahul Gandhi stepped back after a few events, leaving Tejashwi Yadav to handle the bulk of campaigning. The Opposition’s sweeping manifesto promises—200 units of free power, a government job for one member of each family, Rs 30,000 Maai-Bahin scheme payouts, Rs 500 LPG cylinders, land for landless families and free medical insurance up to Rs 25 lakh—were widely seen as unrealistic. With Bihar home to 2.83 crore families and only about three lakh government vacancies, the promise of giving every family a job did not appear credible. Even insiders in the Mahagathbandhan admitted privately that these commitments were impractical.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj, once projected by some observers as a possible disruptor, contested around 240 seats but failed to win a single one. It secured around 3.3% of the statewide vote but could not influence any constituency to the extent of altering the two-way contests between NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. Ultimately, the NDA’s victory was the result of a rare alignment of welfare execution, women’s mobilisation, caste repositioning, development showcases and disciplined campaign coordination. The final tally underscored the scale of the shift: the Opposition side the RJD fell to 25, Congress to 6, CPI-ML to 2, CPI to 1 and CPM to 1. The 2025 elections mark not just a decisive mandate but a deeper structural realignment in Bihar’s politics with BJP now slated to emerge as the number one party in the state.
