NEW DELHI: Concerns surrounding Assam’s demographic equilibrium and cultural identity have once again come to the forefront following renewed warnings by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma regarding the growing population of people of Bangladeshi origin in the state. Political leaders as well as sections of Assam’s indigenous population fear that any further rise could significantly reshape the state’s ethnic composition, social fabric, and cultural heritage.
The Chief Minister recently warned that Assam would cease to remain “the original Assam” if the population of people of Bangladeshi origin were to rise by another 10 percent. His remark is being interpreted as a strong indication of what he describes as a gradual but continuous demographic transformation over several decades, which, according to him, represents an existential challenge for the state’s indigenous communities.
Addressing reporters earlier this week, Sarma said he has been persistently flagging the issue for the last five years. “In Assam, 40 percent of the population consists of Bangladeshi origin people. If this increases by another 10 percent, we will automatically be included in Bangladesh,” he said, responding to reports of a comment made by a Bangladeshi leader about merging India’s northeastern region with the neighbouring country. “This is precisely why I have been raising this concern for the past five years,” he added.
Based on Sarma’s projections, Assam’s Muslim population, estimated at approximately 38 percent in 2021, could increase to nearly 40 percent by 2027, driven by a steady decadal growth rate of four to five percent recorded since 1961. Warning of serious consequences, he said, “If the Muslim population crosses the 50 percent mark, other communities will not survive,” framing the issue as a matter of demographic survival rather than a political preference.
The Chief Minister has repeatedly argued that identity-based politics in Assam is not a matter of choice but a “compulsion”. Referring to demographic statistics, he pointed out that Assam’s total population has grown from about 80 lakh in 1951 to nearly 3.1 crore at present, while the indigenous population has remained almost stagnant at around 70 lakh. According to him, the remaining 2.4 crore residents are largely migrants who have settled in the state over different periods.
An analyst with knowledge of the issue told The Sunday Guardian that Assam presently has an estimated Muslim population of around 13 to 14 million. Of this number, nearly nine to ten million are believed to be of Bangladeshi origin, based on figures cited by the Assam Minority Development Board. Such estimates are frequently referenced in debates aimed at distinguishing indigenous Muslim communities from those perceived to be of immigrant origin.
The analyst further explained that under the Assam Accord implementation process, authorities have identified approximately 1.65 lakh illegal immigrants through tribunal proceedings up to the end of 2024. He emphasised that this category applies strictly to individuals declared illegal residents under legal and judicial definitions, and should not be confused with broader ethnic, religious, or linguistic identities.
