As violent anti-government protests sweep across Iran, US President Donald Trump has dramatically escalated pressure on Tehran by announcing sweeping trade penalties. On Monday, Trump declared that any country continuing business with Iran would face a 25 percent tariff on all trade with the United States, a move that could have far-reaching global consequences.
The announcement comes as Iran witnesses one of its most intense periods of unrest in years. More than 600 protests have erupted across all 31 provinces, with activists reporting hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests. The growing violence has pushed Washington to consider tougher economic and even military responses.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump said, “Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any business being done with the United States of America. This Order is final and conclusive. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Trump Signals Military Options but Prioritises Diplomacy
Alongside the tariff threat, Trump warned that Iran may be crossing a dangerous line by allegedly using deadly force against protesters. He said the situation has forced his national security team to weigh “very strong options.”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt reinforced this stance, stating that airstrikes remain among the “many, many options” under review. However, she clarified, “Diplomacy is always the first option for the president”.
Will US Tariffs on Iran Trade Partners Impact India?
The short answer is yes. India is likely to feel the impact of Trump’s latest move.
Although China remains Iran’s largest trading partner, countries such as India, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey also maintain significant trade ties with Tehran. India and Iran share decades-old commercial and diplomatic relations, especially in food, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals.
In 2024–25, India’s exports to Iran stood at US$1.24 billion, while imports were valued at US$0.44 billion, bringing total bilateral trade to US$1.68 billion.
India mainly exports basmati rice, tea, sugar, fresh fruits, and medicines, while importing apples, pistachios, dates, kiwi, and chemicals from Iran. Cereals formed the largest chunk of Indian exports, while organic chemicals dominated imports.
With Washington already imposing tariffs of up to 50 per cent on certain Indian goods over New Delhi’s Russian oil purchases, the proposed Iran-linked tariffs could further strain India’s export sector and complicate ongoing India-US trade negotiations.
India-US Trade Deal Faces Fresh Uncertainty
The tariff threat arrives at a sensitive moment, as India and the US work to finalise a long-pending bilateral trade agreement. US ambassador-designate Sergio Gor recently stressed the importance of ties with New Delhi, saying there is “no partner more essential than India”.
However, fresh trade barriers could slow negotiations and raise costs for Indian exporters already dealing with higher duties.
Legal Trouble for Trump’s Tariff Strategy
Trump’s aggressive tariff policy also faces legal uncertainty at home. Several US states and small businesses have challenged the administration’s authority to impose sweeping import taxes. The matter now lies before the US Supreme Court.
Reacting to the legal challenge, Trump warned on Truth Social that if the court rules against him, “we’re screwed!” A ruling against the administration could force refunds worth billions of dollars already collected through tariffs.
Why Are Protests Erupting Across Iran?
Iran’s unrest stems from deep economic distress. The country’s economy has suffered severely since the reimposition of international sanctions over its nuclear programme. Inflation, job losses, and a collapsing currency have intensified public anger.
The Iranian rial has plunged dramatically, now trading at over 1.4 million to the US dollar, wiping out savings and purchasing power for ordinary citizens.
Activists estimate the death toll from the protests at 646, including 512 protesters and 132 security personnel, with over 10,700 people detained in recent weeks.
Authorities have imposed internet and phone shutdowns to control the unrest, further fuelling public frustration.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has accused external forces of exploiting the unrest, claiming the protests “turned violent and bloody to give an excuse” for US intervention. However, he offered no evidence to support the allegation.
