New Delhi: Avoidable delay in taking a firm decision on who should be appointed as Chief Ministers in the three states won by the Congress in the recent Assembly elections, has resulted in bitterness that could impact the party’s prospects in the 2019 Parliamentary polls. By sitting on the matter, in order to portray his democratic style of functioning, party president Rahul Gandhi has allowed acute factionalism to come to the fore. The differences between Kamal Nath, the eventual choice in Madhya Pradesh, and Jyotiraditya Scindia, as also among Ashok Gehlot, the Chief Minister designate in Rajasthan, and his deputy, Sachin Pilot could create problems in the foreseeable future.
In fact, Sachin Pilot and his supporters appeared to be in a challenging mode and were reluctant to accept the verdict if it was against them. Members of the Gurjar community, to which Pilot belongs, marched out on the streets with the purpose of mounting pressure on Rahul. The Gurjars have a large vote bank in Rajasthan and elsewhere, and the logic was apparent that if Pilot was not selected, the community could review its support for the Congress. Close associates of Pilot were adamant that if he did not stake his claim now, he would continue to be ignored in the future as well. Therefore, throwing the hat in the ring was mandatory. The high command bowed to their wishes and declared him to be the Deputy Chief Minister.
The dilemma before Rahul was evidently that of making a generational change in the Congress or wait till after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The expectations from the younger crop of leaders was obviously that the change has to come at some stage, and after winning the three states, it would send the right signals to the youth, in a country that has nearly 70% of its population under the age of 40.
On the flipside, the Congress has won by a wafer-thin margin in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and certainly requires an experienced hand to enhance and consolidate its chances in the Parliamentary confrontation. Therefore, the primary and sole objective of the party is to subtract as many numbers from the BJP’s 2014 tally as is possible. For instance, in Rajasthan, the BJP had secured all the 25 seats and if this number could be reduced by half or more, the saffron brigade would find it an arduous task to make up from any other place. The same script has to be replicated in other states, where the BJP had outperformed itself, thereby reaching a saturation point. The political goal is to deprive the BJP of as many seats as possible, so that it finds it extremely hard to claim another term in office.
At least in these three states, the party’s government has to prepare the ground by addressing contentious issues, such as farmer’s distress and unemployment, besides making both the bureaucracy and state machinery more responsive to its commitments. Pilot and Scindia are both promising leaders with a bright future ahead of them. However, Kamal Nath and Gehlot, for right now, were the horses for the courses, if views of the party veterans were to be taken into consideration. This opinion ultimately prevailed.
Rahul was in a Catch 22 predicament. His heart was with the younger leaders, but his mind favoured experience over youth. In the process, he was seized by indecision, which somehow did not present him as a leader who was in control of the scenario, and was thus ignoring the obvious pragmatic demands of realpolitik.
The infighting has virtually come out in the open, and egged on by TV channels, supporters of the principal contenders have not minced either their words or their views. This open exhibition of dissent and hesitation in accepting a clear decision has the ingredients of fuelling further factionalism in the party, which has been making attempts to come out of the resuscitation ward, after it was able to secure merely 44 seats in the 2014 polls, its lowest ever number.
Rahul may have passed the litmus test of spearheading his party to victory in the three states held by the BJP, but has been unable to assert his authority on his lieutenants. Questions are being asked on the offices which Scindia or Pilot would occupy, if the Chief Minister’s position eludes them. Scindia is already the Chief Whip in Lok Sabha and has been a Union Minister and Pilot is the president of the Rajasthan unit. In addition, he would be inducted into the Cabinet with the Deputy CM’s designation and a key portfolio so as to placate his supporters. However, behind the facade of unity, there are going to be latent resentments that would surface in due time.
Kamal Nath and Gehlot are both seasoned players. Nath has won nine times from Chhindwara after making his Parliamentary debut in 1980. A Doon School classmate of the late Sanjay Gandhi, he has repeatedly proven himself in politics. He has held key positions both in the party and the government, and is regarded by many as the most regulated and organised politician in the Congress. Many of his followers also view him as Prime Minister-material. Similarly, Gehlot has been the Chief Minister of Rajasthan two times over and is also an organisation man; rising gradually after getting his political spurs in the NSUI in the mid-1970s. He enjoys the support of many seniors, and has also advised Rahul Gandhi on crucial matters after Ahmed Patel took the back seat on being appointed the AICC treasurer.
In Chhatisgarh as well, the party needs to deftly carry Bhupesh Baghel, T.S. Singh Deo and Tamradhwaj Sahu, so as to enhance its prospects in the Lok Sabha polls. It is also an opportune time to draw lessons from these factional feuds, and accordingly put a check on dissenting leaders. In Punjab, Navjot Singh Sidhu is a classic case of indiscipline, and therefore needs to be reined in. In neighbouring Haryana, the party must take a firm decision on who to project as the leader. Former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda appears to be a safe bet.