In what is both a deft political move and a well thought through strategy, the Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge reiterated in Bengaluru, that his party was not in the race for the Prime Ministerial position, and nor was it hankering after power. It was only wanting to uphold the Constitution and safeguard the principles of federalism and democracy.
The statement at the Bengaluru conclave of 26 Opposition parties may have surprised many of the participants, but it was not unexpected. Since 2014, the BJP has been targeting the Gandhis, particularly Rahul, and has always been keen on making the general elections a contest between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Rahul.
In the BJP’s assessment, if PM Modi and Rahul are the political adversaries on the national stage, it would immediately shift the advantage to the BJP, which with its robust organizational structure and ability to sway public opinion would seek to make it into a one-sided contest.
However, what needs to be understood is that Rahul has had a transformation of image, and has gained in political stature after his Bharat Jodo Yatra and the overwhelming victory of the Congress over the BJP in Karnataka. This repeat performance could happen in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where the grand old party is in the pole position. Even in Telangana, the Congress could leapfrog over the BJP and occupy the number two spot after the Bharat Rashtra Samithi of K. Chandrasekhar Rao.
Kharge is a seasoned politician who knows how to control the narrative and protect the interests of his party. His statement means that the Congress would not put anyone as the Prime Ministerial face, even if many in political circles may take it for granted that in the event of a BJP defeat, Rahul Gandhi would automatically be catapulted to that position.
What Kharge is seeking to achieve is to make things for the Opposition partners much easier, and his proclamation in Bengaluru would have given some hope to ambitious leaders, while simultaneously massaging their egos. He has also thrown a subtle hint to his alliance partners, that if the Congress were willing to withdraw its claim on the top position, despite being the largest party in the coalition, others should do likewise to eliminate any tussle during the pre-election phase.
Any neutral observer of the political scenario which is emerging would conclude that it would not be easy to beat the BJP, led by a dominant and strong leader like Narendra Modi. Therefore, it is also important not to expose potential leaders, thereby allowing the coalition to contest the next Lok Sabha election cohesively, leaving the leadership issue open. This issue could be resolved in the post-electoral set up since many more partners could join depending on the situation that emerges.
Kharge also knows that things have changed since 2003 when after the Shimla Congress conclave, Sonia Gandhi was unanimously accepted as the leader of the alliance, which subsequently remained in power for ten years, with Dr Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister. In what looks to be an unlikely event of the new alliance winning the polls, the Congress would continue to play a stellar role.
Politically it implies that if the next Prime Minister would not be from the Congress, the party would have a major say in determining who it would be from any other Opposition groups. Within the Congress there may be names which could crop up such as Kharge himself, former Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde or Kamal Nath. But much would depend on how the other partners react in the post-election situation.
In order to move forward, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.), has to be wary of certain political leaders who are at present a part of the proposed set-up but could rock the boat at any stage. These leaders are extremely unreliable and going by their past record, can make last minute turns, which could be both detrimental to the interests of the coalition and destructive.
For instance, Sharad Pawar is extremely unpredictable and known for playing on both sides of the chessboard. He can be deceptive and is capable of damaging the overall interests of any alliance which opposes the BJP. For him, his self-interest is paramount and he does not mind going to any length to achieve his objectives. In any case, despite his vast experience, he is no mass leader and in the electoral arithmetic, the numbers are never going to be on his side.
Arvind Kejriwal is equally undependable and can change his stance at any juncture. His stated objective has been to have a Congress-Mukt Bharat, but what arouses the suspicion of those following him closely is as to why he would allow Congress to play the most significant part.
Similarly, Nitish Kumar, who nurses the ambition of being Prime Minister, wants to repeat a Chandrashekar type of feat. With numerical equation not backing his claim, he will still throw his hat in the ring. Like the other two, he is capable of speaking from two sides of the mouth.
In sharp contrast, Mamata Banerjee has the credentials to lead from the front. She is a fighter and happens to be both a Brahmin and a woman, something which could work for her as well as the alliance in the polls. Being from the Congress background, her acceptability would also be more than many others.
However, all the aces would be in the “hands” of the Congress and its leadership. Between us.