CPI Report Today: U.S. January CPI inflation cools to 2.4%, below forecasts, as core CPI hits 2.5%—lowest since March 2021. India launches new 2024 base year series with inflation at 2.75%. Full analysis.
U.S. Inflation Rate Drops to 2.4% in January, Core CPI Falls to 2.5% as Energy Prices Decline (Image: File)
CPI Report Today: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January 2026, released today at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, showed headline inflation falling to 2.4% year on year, below December's 2.7% and the 2.5% expectation. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, fell to 2.5% yearly, the lowest level since March 2021, bolstering predictions that the Federal Reserve will begin decreasing interest rates in the coming months.
Monthly headline CPI rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast. Energy prices fell 0.1% annually, with gasoline dropping 7.5% and fuel oil declining 4.2%. Food inflation has eased to 3.1% per year, with eggs down 7% and pork chops down 4.1% weekly. Canned veggies experienced the greatest monthly rise, at 5.5%. Shelter inflation slowed to 3% year-over-year, down from 3.2% in December. Used car and truck prices fell 2% annually.
Consumers benefit from falling gasoline and grocery prices. Investors responded positively, with the S&P 500 rising 0.7% and Nasdaq climbing 0.6% in early trading. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to its lowest intraday levels since early December.
| Factor | Implication |
|---|---|
| Current inflation | 2.4% (below 2.5% forecast) |
| March 2026 meeting | Rate pause expected (3.50%–3.75%) |
| May 2026 odds | 90% probability of rate cut |
| Chair transition | Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell in May |
Despite cooling inflation, the Fed cites a strong January jobs report and sticky core services for cautious stance.
The adjustment to the 2024 base year (2024=100) is the most major upgrade to India's Consumer Price Index since 2012. According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), the new series more accurately reflects modern consumption trends by increasing the item basket and adjusting category weights.
| Category | New Series (Base 2024) | Old Series (Base 2012) |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 2.75% | 2.55% (linked) |
| Core Inflation | 3.4% | 4.15% |
| Food Inflation | 2.13% | Not directly comparable |
The 20 basis point difference in headline inflation is attributed to methodological shifts and the revised consumption basket.
| Category | Annual Change (YoY) | Monthly Change (MoM) | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Items | 2.4% | +0.2% | Overall cooldown; lowest since May 2025 |
| Core CPI | 2.5% | +0.3% | Lowest annual core rate since March 2021 |
| Shelter | 3.0% | +0.2% | Decelerated from 3.2% YoY |
| Energy | -0.1% | -1.5% | Gasoline -3.2% MoM, Fuel Oil -5.7% MoM |
| Food | 2.9% | +0.2% | Cereals/Bakery +3.1%, Dairy -0.3% |
| Used Cars & Trucks | -2.0% | -1.8% | Significant downward pressure |
| Apparel | 1.7% | +0.3% | Linked to tariff pass-through |
| Metric | U.S. | India |
|---|---|---|
| CPI (YoY) | 2.4% | 2.75% |
| Previous Month | 2.7% (Dec) | 1.33% (Dec) |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.5% | 3.4% |
| Food Inflation | 2.9% | 2.13% |
| Energy Inflation | -0.1% | Embedded in new weights |
Next U.S. CPI report (February) is scheduled for Wednesday, March 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. India's new series is expected to produce structurally softer prints due to reduced food weight. Economists at Kotak Mahindra expect RBI to hold rates through 2026 as the new series provides a benign trajectory within the 2%–6% tolerance band.
A. The U.S. CPI report for January 2026 was released today, February 13, 2026, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time (7:00 PM Indian Standard Time).
A. There was no October 2025 CPI news release due to a federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025. The Bureau of Labor Statistics could not collect survey data for the October reference period, and data from September was carried forward to calculate subsequent months.
A. U.S. stock indexes rose following the report, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.7% and the Nasdaq climbing 0.6% in early trading. Investors viewed the lower-than-expected headline figure as a sign that inflation is returning to the Federal Reserve's target.
A. India's new Base 2024=100 series rebalanced weights, reduced Food & Beverages share to 36.75% from 45.86%, enlarged the item basket to 358 including services and online products, included rural housing rent, and incorporated e-commerce price data from 12 online markets.
A. The next U.S. inflation report, covering February 2026, is scheduled for release on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
Disclaimer: This post is not financial advise; it is being written for informative reasons only.
