(Reuters) -U.S. retailers are bracing for a subdued holiday shopping season this year as the economic fallout from President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies leaves shoppers more cautious about buying extravagant gifts. The holiday selling season spans over three months from November to the end of January, including key shopping days such as Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas, which account for a chunk of retailers' annual sales. In recent weeks, several companies, including Deckers Outdoor, Elf Beauty, Tapestry, Under Armour and Canada Goose signaled soft demand during the holidays. Here are some prominent holiday shopping forecasts and surveys: SOURCE KEY FORECASTS NUMBERS PwC PricewaterhouseCoop American shoppers ers projected the are expected to steepest spend about $1,552 year-over-year drop per person on in U.S. holiday average, down 5.3% spending since the from last year. pandemic, primarily fueled by Gen Z shoppers pulling back amid economic uncertainty. Deloitte U.S. holiday sales Retail sales during are expected to the November grow at their 2025-January 2026 slowest pace since period are expected the pandemic. to rise between A survey conducted 2.9% and 3.4%, by Deloitte showed compared with a the least 4.2% increase last optimistic outlook year, marking the on economic slowest growth sentiment since the since the 2018-2019 firm started season. tracking it in E-commerce sales 1997. are projected to The survey also increase between 7% said consumers and 9% during the expect to reduce season, their spending on compared with last both retail goods year's 8% growth. and experiences, In-store sales are with nearly all projected to rise generations and between 2% and income groups 2.2%, compared to a planning to pull 3.4% growth in back on spending 2024. this season, except Consumers are for Gen X shoppers. expected to spend an average of $1,595, down 10% from last year, according to a survey of 4,270 consumers conducted online byan independent research company and fielded between August 27 and September 5. 77% of surveyed consumers expect higher prices on holiday items, and 57% expect the economy to weaken in 2026, with 56% of respondents being concerned about a potential recession in the next six months. Salesforce The software Online spending is company projects a expected to rise slower growth in 2.1% to $288 online spending billion, lower than between November 1 a 4% increase in and December 31. the same period last year. Mastercard The Mastercard Retail sales are Economics Institute expected to rise expects U.S. 3.6% between holiday sales November 1 and growth to moderate December 24 this this year. Still, year, compared to a it will be driven 4.1% growth in the by promotions, as same period last consumers seek the year. best value for Online sales are their money amid expected to jump broader 7.9% this holiday macroeconomic season, compared to uncertainty. an 8.6% rise last year. In-store sales are projected to grow 2.3%. It rose 2.8% in the 2024 holiday season. Adobe Analytics U.S. holiday online U.S. online sales sales to grow at a to rise 5.3% to slower pace this $253.4 billion year, Adobe between November 1 Analytics projects, and December 31, as macroeconomic compared with an uncertainty 8.7% rise last continues to year. pressure consumer Cyber Monday sales spending. are expected to rise 6.3% to $14.2 billion. Consumer spending between October 7 and October 8 is expected to be $9 billion, a 6.2% increase compared with last year, as the data firm expects shoppers to kick off some of their early holiday purchases during Amazon's October Big Deal Days. EY-Parthenon Ernst & Young's U.S. holiday retail consulting firm sales in the forecasts a modest November-December rise in holiday 2025 shopping sales this year, season are expected driven mainly by to rise 2.5%, higher prices due compared with a to inflation. While 4.2% increase last higher-income year, EY-Parthenon households are forecast shows. largely unaffected The sales growth at by price increases, 2.5% is expected to spending from be the slowest middle-and since 2018, when it lower-income grew 2.4%. consumers is While total sales expected to be are expected to constrained due to cross $1 trillion, slower income gains are likely to growth and rising be driven by higher credit dependency, prices, compared the firm says. with last year, when volume growth made up about 85% of sales growth. National Retail NRF forecasts Spending is set to Federation (NRF) holiday sales above rise in a range of $1 trillion for the 3.7% to 4.2% to first time, but between $1.01 sees slower growth trillion and $1.02 than last year. trillion. It had risen by 4.3% to $976.1 billion in November and December last year. (Reporting by Neil J Kanatt and Juveria Tabassum in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo and Alan Barona) (The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)
