2024 has been chaotic with upheavals and downdrafts. Although this year a record number of countries went to the polls, they have frequently turned inwards with barriers and nativism. Global growth has been affected and has been at 3.2%. Global governance has eroded with ever-sharper divisions between factions.
With this retreat in globalization, 2025 looks bleak. US-China rivalry may diminish the economic growth of the world going further & the divisions between the Global North & Global South have only accentuated. Traditional norms are under stress and new groupings are emerging. Climate promises have faced another round of battering and disillusionment. The one clear ray of light has been the advancement of critical technology development, especially artificial intelligence. AI agents are heralding a new era of technological development that is anticipated to lead to a period of abundance in the future.
The future of international cooperation looks increasingly under stress. The conflict in Ukraine and in Israel has exposed sharp disagreements even within groupings like NATO & member countries like those that are signatories to ICC. The ongoing onslaught in Ukraine has culminated in the rise of a new axis- that of Russia, China, Iran & North Korea which are now cooperating and integrating with each other like never before.
At the same time, China & the US are entering a new stage of a trade war that has already included the government of China putting export controls on critical minerals among other threats for tariffs that have been issued by the incoming Trump administration. They have also escalated their animosity towards each other in regions in the South China Sea and Africa. This escalation is detrimental to growth, cooperation, and development going forward for the world.
This is while the BRICS grouping has expanded this year to include other regional powers like Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia & UAE and have held talks to the effect of attempting to de-dolarise trade between member countries.
The future of liberal democracy in its current form is also increasingly being challenged. While democracy in its core sense of rule by majority through elections remains largely intact, the election of far-left or right-leaning figures makes it more illiberal in character and nativistic in nature. There is also the erosion of some democratic aspects such as the presence of a thriving press and opposition in certain countries. From Trump in the US to Milei in Argentina, to Germany & Israel- the consequential countries are wavering and doddering on their prized liberal credentials.
The support for climate change this year- while largely present in words and vision- is absent in concrete delivery and commitment in dollar terms. COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan is a case in point. The dismal sum of $300 billion offered by the Global North for the entire Global South is a display of shortcomings in putting claims to real commitment. This is woefully short to turn around the ongoing rise in temperatures and greenhouse gases in the near future to keep the earth from going over 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels.
This year technological progress and growth have definitely shown promise and progress. AI in particular is continuing to advance adding more and more features and capabilities with more promise for a future of abundance. AI agents in particular are now able to complete specific tasks from start to finish and hold great promise in both the medium term and the long term for their contributions & capabilities in multiple sectors.
Quantum computing has also made a breakthrough with Google’s Willow and could soon help us transition to cubits-based computing as opposed to our current binary computing of ones and zeroes. Space technology has shown considerable promise with newer rockets and carriers. Finally, this year was also exceptional for cryptocurrency & blockchain ecosystem with greater adoption, integration and development in this space. Bitcoin has also crosses $100,000 USD for the first time in its lifetime, although what effect the new developments in quantum may have on its cryptography are to be seen.
2025 brings with it much promise and equally more challenges. The Global South led by India & China will largely define how 2025 will evolve because the largest proportion of economic growth and population growth will occur in the Global South. At the same time, because of its dominance in AI, the US will continue to remain ahead in the pack with technological, economic & military progress.
However, what must lead 2025 is compassion. Leaders and citizens alike must lead with a sense of compassion for others- for communities & for ecology alike. While this is easier said than done, we must continue to aspire for it, and it is compassion alone that can lead to positive growth in the economy and development for people in 2025 and beyond.
Rajesh Mehta is an International Affairs expert working on areas like Market Entry, Innovation & Public Policy