In the continually changing currents of international geopolitics, who can predict trade deal outcomes when the trump card is a joker? Or maybe there is a method in the madness that carves out a new geoeconomic order through calculated unpredictability. The key question is: will the new order favour India? We can either wait for the answer while precariously hanging from the geopolitical precipice, or be positively proactive by strengthening ties with the Nordics and the wider European Union (EU).
Ultimately, India’s international economic engagements should deliver four core outcomes for its citizens: improving quality of life through social welfare and equity; generating meaningful employment; fostering ideation and innovation; and enhancing national security by countering China’s hegemonic ambitions. On all four fronts, the EU not only aligns with India’s strategic objectives but, in many cases, outperforms the US. Within the EU, the Nordic countries distinguish themselves further—consistently setting global benchmarks and offering compelling models in each of these areas.
EU’S AWAKENING: During his first term, US President Trump hinted that he saw the EU treating the US as both a fall guy and a Man Friday. Most EU leaders then dismissed him as a petulant child throwing tantrums. That dismissiveness grew stronger, as hardly anyone in the EU thought that Trump could return to power.
First, Trump’s victory jolted the EU. Second, when a vexed President Trump in his second term translated his “tantrums” into policy, the EU politicians and populus got abruptly awoken. The fact that the US would no longer be a philanthropic security provider shook the EU in a way they had neither thought nor planned for. The EU’s reflex response was that the US was no longer a dependable and trustable partner. Then the EU tried to mollify Trump. Finally, now, as the EU grasps the shifting order, it begins to introspect—its attitude and aptitude alike.
EU & ITS INTROSPECTIONS: President Trump has left the EU unsettled and unhinged. The EU is facing many challenges both inside and outside its borders. There are domestic issues like rising right wing, poorly planned policies on immigration and integration, rising crime, ageing demographics, increasing costs, high exposure to China in terms of trade and manufacturing. On the international front the Russia-Ukraine crisis is turning into a quagmire, security concerns about China, trying to find its position in the new world order.
EU READY TO REDEFINE RELATIONS: With the US’ MAGA approach, the EU, like the rest of the world, is looking to diversify its economic partnerships while being conscious of its choices. With commonly shared values, interests and a rising economy India-EU make long term perfect partners.
EU-INDIA PRICKLINESS: One of the prickly issues that subtly overshadows EU-India ties is the EU’s sanctimonious, didactic stance towards India and others—an attitude notably absent in EU-US relations, as dependence dictates a docile deference.
Over time this EU demeanour has calcified into regulatory policies and sometimes into laws. Add to this periodic tendentious sermonisations through EU think-tanks leading to partisan narrative towards India. It’s not that the Indians don’t appreciate the spirit of such altruism. But what peeves India is the EU using its yardstick to measure another social fabric, often ignoring local ground realities and domestic challenges. That’s why perhaps many countries felt a quiet delight as the US Vice President J.D. Vance admonished the EU at the Munich Conference this year. Democratic dilemmas are inevitable, including for India, but India-EU relations would benefit from a more perceptive, less dogmatic EU.
As India-EU FTA talks advance, CDMM warrants stronger focus and broader adoption across the EU. It will promote safe, legal, and mutually beneficial mobility of Indian talent.
MSMES: Often overlooked, Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), the backbone of most economies, drive employment and economy. Collaboration between Indian and EU MSMEs—especially innovation-driven Nordics like Sweden—should be prioritised.
Together, cutting-edge innovations and solutions can be developed for global markets across sectors like cleantech, defence, and digital security etc.
CHINA+1: India offers untapped manufacturing potential but should not be viewed merely as a China alternative. India is not about cheap labour ready to replace China as “world’s factory”.
India boasts of the world’s largest highly educated, easily integrated talent pool, evident in the global success of its diaspora.
India-EU industrial partnership aligns with the EU’s de-risking/China+1 strategy and India’s ambitions, forming a win-win industrial and strategic bridge.
It’s time to take the anvil out to forge new and strengthen existing connections.
Rajesh Mehta is a leading international affairs expert & Manu Uniyal, is a media consultant and a columnist based in Sweden.