London: In a rambling speech at the United Nations General Assembly last month, lasting for more than an hour instead of the allocated 15 minutes, Donald Trump claimed something extraordinary. Not known for underselling his achievements, real or imaginary, he said: “In a period of just seven months, I have ended seven unendable wars…….in all cases they were raging with countless thousands of people being killed. Everyone says that I should get the Nobel Peace Prize for each one of these achievements.” While six of Trump’s claims fail to survive when tested against reality, the final one he boasted about – the Gaza Peace Plan – just might.
Standing alongside Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House a week later, in a self-congratulatory speech Trump proclaimed the advent of “eternal peace in the Middle East”. It was a “big, big day”, he declared, a “historic day”, perhaps even “one of the great days even in civilisation”. He was echoing his words “an incredible diplomatic success” used back in 2019 when he claimed to have persuaded Turkey to pause its military operations in Northern Syria. This ceasefire failed, and many observers fear that history will be repeated in Gaza.
While Trump was holding forth on the brilliance of his proposal, the White House released the text of a 20-point plan to end the war in Gaza and rebuild the Palestinian territory. The plan calls for an immediate ceasefire and hostage release, both living and dead, within 72 hours once both sides accept the agreement. Israel would then free more than 2,000 Palestinians from Israeli jails, including those detained since October 2023, and bodies of deceased Palestinians. Hamas must disarm, relinquish all governance in Gaza and agree to no further roles. A technocratic, apolitical interim authority would then run Gaza during a transition period, supervised by an international “Board of Peace” with Trump as chair and include international actors such as former UK prime Minister Tony Blair. The plan also incorporates the gradual withdrawal of Israel under security guarantees, large-scale humanitarian aid, reconstruction of Gaza, and a promise that Israel will not annex or permanently occupy the Gaza Strip.
The question is, will both sides agree to the plan and make it work?
There is little doubt that accepting a peace plan that looks rather like one put forward by Joe Biden well over a year ago, is a political gamble for Benjamin Netanyahu. Since then, there has been mass killings of Palestinian civilians, mostly women and children, more destruction in Gaza and now a famine, while Israeli hostages in Gaza have had to endure months more of agony and captivity. The Biden initiative failed because Netanyahu moved the goalposts with a new set of demands, under pressure from the hard-right members of his cabinet, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Before Netanyahu left Washington last week, his staff filmed him putting over his version of events. Even though he had earlier given wholehearted support to Trump in the White House, telling him in English “I support your plan to end the war in Gaza, which achieves our war aims”, the thought of a distant prospect of a Palestinian state was too much for Netanyahu. In a video, getting his message out in Hebrew to the Israeli people before the long flight home, Netanyahu was asked if he agreed to a Palestinian state. He was emphatic. “No, absolutely not”, he replied, emphasising that he would forcibly resist any idea of a Palestinian state.
The concept of a Palestinian state is clearly a red line for Netanyahu and his hardline ultra-right ministers, as Jewish extremists want the land annexed and Palestinians replaced with Jewish settlers. But the 20-point proposal clearly states that “no one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return. We will encourage people to stay and offer them the opportunity to build a better Gaza”. On the subject of a Palestinian state, the proposal is suitably vague, saying: “While Gaza redevelopment advances and when the Palestinian Authority reform programme is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognise as the aspiration of the Palestinian people”. It’s no wonder that Netanyahu’s ultra-nationalist minister of national security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, called the plan “dangerous” and ‘full of holes”.
Although there seems to have been little or no Palestinian voice in the development of the plan, the good news for President Trump is that many leading Arab and Islamic countries have supported it, including Jordan, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Pakistan, Indonesia and Turkey. Writing on X shortly after Trump’s announcement, Tony Blair, whom Trump is convinced is the man for the job, endorsed the plan, describing it as a “bold and intelligent plan which, if agreed, can end the war”. The key words are “if agreed” as the plan has not yet been agreed by Hamas. During the press conference at the White House, Trump said they were “very, very close” but his 20-point plan was not even shared with the militant group until after the conference. By the following day, Hamas officials had said that they were reviewing the plan “in good faith”, but gave no indication when they would respond officially. On Tuesday, Trump posted on Truth Social that Hamas must agree the deal by 6pm Washington DC time this Sunday, otherwise “all HELL, like no one has seen before will break out against Hamas”.
Optimists note that there’s something in the framework of the plan for all sides to like and dislike – the mark of a good compromise. Palestinians and their regional backers get the promise of no annexation and no displacement, plus the hope – however faint – of future statehood. Netanyahu gets all the hostages back, Hamas disarmed and out of power, a security buffer, and Arab partners shouldering the bulk of Gaza’s security and reconstruction. The Palestinian Authority gets a role down the line, but would be out of the picture for the foreseeable future, and the “statehood” language is vague enough to give Netanyahu plausible deniability at home. While there is little doubt that Netanyahu will struggle to keep his coalition together, opposition leaders in the Knesset have already given their backing to the proposal, which would give him a lifeline to stay in power and out of jail.
Trump’s plan put Hamas under pressure from multiple directions, especially from its regional backers, Qatar and Turkey, who pushed the group to accept the ceasefire for the sake of an immediate end to the bloodshed and suffering. One of the problems to any agreement, however, is that Hamas’ surviving commander in Gaza, Izz al-Din al-Haddad, has insisted that no agreement can be made unless there is a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and that Hamas must retain its weapons. For him, this is a red line. Sources say that he believes the plan is unbalanced and does not offer Hamas sufficient guarantees once they have given up their main bargaining chip – the hostages – and their weapons. Al-Haddad holds the veto power over deals concerning hostages or ceasefires and under his leadership, Hamas has restructured its command, intensified intelligence gathering, and coordinated sniper fire, anti-tank missile strikes and explosives across multiple fronts in Gaza. He is said to favour continued conflict unless more favourable terms are reached.
It’s a simple fact that the men with guns in Gaza control the whereabouts and the fate of the hostages, and getting the hostages home is one of Netanyahu’s war-aims. Donald Trump has warned that if Hamas doesn’t accept the plan, “Israeli forces can finish the job and it will be a very sad end”. But conditions in Gaza are already “hellish”, according to reports, so it’s hard to see how things could get any worse. It’s also clear that while Hamas is no longer a coherent military operation, what exists now in Gaza is an insurgency – people with weapons, popping out of hundreds of miles of tunnels from holes in the ground trying to kill Israeli soldiers. US intelligence reports that some 30,000 young Palestinians have joined Hamas since the start of the war, so there’s plenty of scope for the insurgency to continue almost indefinitely, should Trump’s plan not be accepted. Recent history in the Middle East clearly shows that insurgencies are extremely difficult to end, and they will continue so long as someone is prepared to fight and die.
Then late on Friday came a dramatic announcement from Hamas on their reaction to the plan. It wasn’t a “yes” but a “yes BUT”. They would release all remaining hostages but wanted further negotiations on a number of issues. Hamas did not address certain key aspects of the Trump plan, notably the requirement for its disarmament and the withdrawal from its role in Gaza’s governance. Nevertheless, Donald Trump ordered Benjamin Netanyahu to stop the bombing in Gaza city and the 2 million Palestinians in the Strip and the families of the Israeli hostages remain on tenterhooks.
Suddenly there’s the real possibility that an end to this terrible war is in sight, but it’s far from clear that either side is seriously ready to abandon their fight. Is Donald Trump’s peace plan a light at the end of the Gaza tunnel? Possibly. But as the old saying goes, sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is an express train coming towards you.
John Dobson is a former British diplomat, who also worked in UK Prime Minister John Major’s office between 1995 and 1998. He is currently a visiting fellow at the University of Plymouth.
