NEW DELHI: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda recently signed a peace deal, brokered by the United States, in order to end the decades long conflict in the Eastern Congo region while helping the Americans gain access to critical minerals in the region. DRC is home to 10% of global copper reserves and accounts for over half of the global cobalt reserves. DRC is also significant producer of diamonds, gold, manganese and tantalum. Eastern Congo region, consisting of North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Tanaganyika, Haut-Lamami and Maneima is rich in high-value minerals like coltan, gold, tin and tantalum which are critical for electronics and clean energy. However, this region has long been in conflict, with various armed factions vying for control in the region. The most prominent armed faction in the region is M23 whose primary area of operations is North Kivu with operations extending to South Kivu. M23, formed in 2012 is composed of ethnic Tutsis who seized Goma, the largest city in North Kivu, however they were defeated by the Congolese Army and the UN force and promises were made to integrate M23 fighters into the Congolese army. However, the group took up arms against the Congolese Army in 2021, accusing the Congolese Army for not keeping the promises met to the group. and recently made gains in the Eastern Congo capturing mineral rich areas, which has helped them generate finances for War through taxation, illicit mining and exports. The group also controls Goma, a city with population of 2 million people and the largest city in the mineral-rich province of North Kivu and Bukavu, the second largest city in Eastern DRC and the capital of South Kivu province. The United Nations has accused neighbouring Rwanda of backing M23.
KAGAME’S CALCULUS IN EASTERN DRC
Rwanda’s interest in Eastern DRC is driven by security concerns, historical tensions, economic interests and geopolitical ambitions. President Paul Kagame has been the dominant force in Rwanda since 1994 as he steered the country through post-genocide period. Kagame’s centralized governance and assertive foreign policy is credited with bringing Rwanda stability, development and rapid economic growth. However, his rule is also marked by authoritarianism and suppression of dissent. Kagame, a Tutsi has suppressed the majority Hutu population in Rwanda by invoking 1994 genocide and has also used it to justify his aggressive approach towards Eastern DRC. He has accused DRC of sheltering FLDR rebel group, made up of Hutu extremists, which has forced him to adopt forward defence strategy leading to supporting rebel groups like M23. This way Rwanda is not directly involved in war with DRC while helping them secure the border. However, another critical dimension that needs to be explored is the shared Tutsi identity of Kagame and M23 fighters. Kagame, a Tusti himself and the leader of the Rwandan Patriotic Force (RPF) – the victorious force after the 1994 genocide- has long positioned himself as the protector of Tutsis. He has often complained about the discrimination faced by Tutsis in DRC. However, the real reason Kagame has adopted an aggressive posture towards DRC is the mineral wealth. Rwanda has long been accused of profiteering from illicit mining and mineral smuggling in Eastern DRC. According to a UN experts report, mineral smuggling from DRC to Rwanda has reached at an unprecedented level after M23 captured territories in Eastern DRC, jeopardizing tin, tantalum and tungsten exports from the region as looted minerals from DRC were mixed with local Rwandan production and were laundered in downstream supply chain under the guise of Rwandan origin. Rwanda despite its modest gold reserves is a top exporter of gold. Kagame’s calculus therefore cannot be viewed purely in terms of security or ethnic solidarity. While these two factors provide a justification for Kagame’s aggressive posturing towards Eastern DRC, the main motivation appears to be Rwanda’s economic gains through illicit mining and the geopolitical leverage it provides Rwanda.
KAGAME’S ENDURING ADVANTAGE DESPITE THE OUTCOME
Under Kagame, Rwanda is seen as the poster child of post-conflict recovery and economic growth. Rwanda, often referred as ‘Singapore of Africa’ has positioned itself as the hub of tech and innovation and even launched Africa’s first smartphone plant. In contrast, his DRC counterpart Felix Tshisekedi is severely weakened despite securing a second term due to the resurgence of M23. DRC is amongst the five poorest nations in the world and International Monetary Fund (IMF), public finances in DRC were further stretched as they tried to fight the M23. Even as Americans brokered a peace deal, Kagame still remains to gain as the peace deal might reduce open hostilities, but the deal does little to dismantle the deeper structures that empower Rwanda’s control in Eastern DRC, ensuring Rwanda’s role in global supply chain for critical minerals. Therefore, the outcome of the peace deal is dependent on whether Rwanda’s economic interests are protected.
Trishala Sancheti is a Research Fellow at India Foundation.
