NEW DELHI: Over the past decade, Jammu & Kashmir has undergone a dramatic security turnaround. Stone pelting has vanished, militant recruitment collapsed, and villagers who once sheltered insurgents now talk about markets, broadband and foreign tourists. The quiet change signals the slow death of Pakistan’s long-running proxy war and the triumph of an indigenous appetite for normalcy.
In 2010, the Valley erupted in 2,654 organised stonepelting incidents that left more than 6,000 civilians and security personnel injured. By 2023, there was not a single recorded case, nor any strikes called by separatist networks. Union Home Minister Amit Shah highlights the contrast to illustrate how “a new era of peace” has begun. Srinagar’s Lal Chowk, once barricaded by coils of razor wire, now echoes with evening shoppers and college students sipping kahwa.
A decade ago, local social media idols such as Hizbul commander Burhan Wani lured hundreds of teenagers into the gun culture. In 2018, 218 Kashmiri youths joined militant ranks, the highest figure on record. Police data show only ten new local recruits in 2023, six of whom were swiftly killed in encounters. Independent security trackers estimate barely seven fresh recruits so far in 2025, marking a 97% decline from that 2018 peak. Analysts attribute the drop to tighter financial chokes, aggressive online counter-narratives and an urban middle class that now views jihad as a dead-end career path.
Violence indicators mirror the recruitment drought. Terrorist-initiated attacks fell from 228 in 2018 to 43 in 2023, a 66% slide that coincided with an 81% fall in civilian deaths after the abrogation of Article 370. Government figures comparing 2004-14 with 2014-24 show a 69% reduction in total terror incidents and a 68% fall in fatalities. Terrorist ranks that once numbered in the thousands now rely on small bands of foreign infiltrators; of the 76 terrorists killed in 2023, 55 were Pakistanis. The security grid still warns of 130-150 fighters on launch pads across the Line of Control, yet infiltration attempts have plummeted since their 2018 peak of 328 bids.
Senior officers trace the turnaround to an intelligence-led posture that focuses on prevention rather than retaliation. Drone-mounted cameras map night movements, while joint Army-police “grid domination” patrols seal escape corridors within minutes. The drop in local guides has forced infiltrators to brave high-altitude passes without support, leading to higher attrition on the border. Static guards at shrines reassure pilgrims after sporadic bus attacks, shrinking the propaganda dividends militants once reaped by targeting religious gatherings.
Islamabad’s proxy strategy faces structural limits. The Financial Action Task Force grey-listed Pakistan in 2018, squeezing hawala pipelines. Surgical strikes, cross-LoC artillery duels, and the 2025 “Operation Sindoor” air raid degraded Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaishe-Mohammad camps, forcing commanders to rebrand under cloaked names but with scant manpower. Even Pakistan’s social-media echo chambers struggle to mask internal turmoil; Kashmiris scrolling TikTok see economic crises in Karachi and ask why they should trade Indian rupees for slogans typed in Rawalpindi.
Nothing captures the peace dividend like the travel boom. A record 21.1 million tourists visited Jammu & Kashmir in 2023, and arrivals crossed 2.95 million by December 2024, including 43,000 foreigners. Official statisticians logged a 300% surge in foreign tourist arrivals after the G20 Tourism Working Group convened in Srinagar. The 2024 Economic Survey counted 34.98 lakh visitors to Kashmir, five times the 2021 tally, with Gulmarg’s Gondola alone earning Rs 103 crore. Jobs follow suit: more than 29,000 publicsector vacancies were filled between 2019 and 2025, while startups from Pulwama export saffron-infused confectionery to Dubai. For a generation raised amid checkpoints, the sudden normalcy of traffic jams outside new multiplexes is itself a form of liberation.
Kashmir’s militancy is not extinct—sporadic ambushes still bleed the security grid, and launch pads across the LoC remain stocked. Yet the broad arc bends decisively toward peace. The Valley’s future conversations will likely be about hotel tariffs, broadband speed and university admissions rather than martyrdom videos. Violence, once marketed as resistance, is now seen as an economic and moral cul-desac. In the quiet that follows, Kashmiris are scripting their own post-insurgency story, one paragraph, not a projectile, at a time.
Maj Gen R.P.S. Bhadauria (Retd) is the Additional Director General of the Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi, and was formerly the Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies & Simulation (CS3) at USI of India, having served in the Indian Army for 36 years.
