London: It’s been a long time coming, but Donald Trump will actually meet Vladimir Putin on 15 August to start the ball rolling on the end of the war, eleven years after the Russian president ordered the annexation of Crimea and eight years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. When it takes place, the meeting will be the first US-Russia leadership summit since Joe Biden met Putin in Geneva in June 2021, part of an effort to stabilize US-Russian relations, increasingly strained over issues such as cyberattacks, the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, and Russia’s continued occupation of Crimea.
The last time that Donald Trump met Vladimir Putin face to face was more than seven years ago at the highly publicized and controversial summit in Helsinki, Finland. Many will never forget Trump’s deferential tone towards Putin when he failed to challenge him on issues such as Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential election, Russia’s human rights abuses, the poisoning of Russian dissidents abroad, and Russia’s occupation of Crimea. When asked whether he believed US intelligence agencies or Putin regarding Russia’s interference in the election, Trump replied, “President Putin says it’s not Russia. I don’t see any reason why it would be!” This was seen as publicly rejecting the findings of the CIA and FBI, which had unanimously concluded that Russia interfered in the election to help Donald Trump win. Reaction was swift and harsh from both Democrats and Republicans, with the late Senator John McCain calling it “one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in living memory.”
Almost as if to correct this image and demonstrate the gap between himself and the Russian president, Trump has in recent months markedly changed his demeanour and rhetoric towards Putin and the war. Before he took office for the second time, Trump had promised to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, but since becoming president his repeated overtures towards Putin have achieved minimal results. Now, Trump appears less placatory to Putin and more amenable to enhanced support for Ukraine. Last month he called Russia’s continued attacks on Ukrainian civilian areas “disgusting,” and admitted that he was “disappointed” with Vladimir. “We’ll have a great conversation. I’ll say: ‘That’s good, I’ll think we’re close to getting it done,’ and then he’ll knock down a building in Kiev,” he told the BBC. In reply, a stiff Putin said that “as for any disappointments on the part of anyone, all disappointments arise from inflated expectations. This is a well-known general rule.”
Vladimir Putin has periodically claimed to be interested in peace, but only on terms wholly unacceptable to Kyiv. Last month, the third round of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine took place in Istanbul, but broke up in less than an hour and led to no agreement other than prisoner exchange. Kyiv claimed that Russia had clearly shown it was not serious about the talks by sending a low-level delegation led by Vladimir Medinsky, a former culture minister known for writing patriotic books about history. “This level of delegation does not have the authority to negotiate, just spew out insults and announce demands,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, a Zelenskyy aide after the meeting. Zelenskyy has always said that he wants to meet Putin one-to-one, with either Trump or the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as moderator. Putin, however, appears not so keen to meet Zelenskyy, insisting that he will only make a deal with his dear friend Donald.
Late on Wednesday, when asked whether he would meet the leaders of Ukraine and Russia, Donald Trump told reporters: “There’s a good chance that there will be a meeting very soon.” The White House later revealed that Trump planned to sit down with Putin as early as next week, and then as a pre-condition he wanted a three-way meeting with the Russian president and Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Then on Thursday, Trump contradicted his earlier statement, saying he would hold a meeting with Putin regardless of whether the Russian leader agrees to meet his Ukrainian counterpart, implying that Vladimir Putin is in full control and running the show. Trump’s special envoy for peace missions, Steve Witkoff, has held at least five meetings with Putin since February, but all contacts have failed to deliver any breakthroughs. While Trump appears to have grown increasingly frustrated, Putin has dramatically escalated Russia’s attacks on Ukraine since the talks began, leading to the suspicion that Putin is simply stringing Trump along.
As long ago as January when he returned to the White House, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that if Russia doesn’t “settle now”, he would impose “high levels of tariffs” on Russia and other participating countries. He cast it as doing Russia “a very big FAVOUR” by forcing a deal. Nothing happened. Then in March he declared he was “strongly considering large-scale banking sanctions and tariffs on Russia” until a ceasefire and final peace agreement is reached. Again, nothing happened. Trump then signalled more secondary sanctions, especially targeting countries importing Russian oil, such as India, including steep tariffs and financial measures.
Finally, early this month Trump issued an ultimatum – Putin must agree to a ceasefire by Friday 8 August or face severe consequences including new sanctions and tariffs (reportedly up to 100% on oil buyers). Meanwhile, secondary sanctions were set to take effect, with a 25% tariff on Indian goods tied to Russian oil imports.
The BBC’s Russia correspondent, Steve Rosenberg, one of the last foreign journalists remaining in Moscow, told listeners last week that Russian citizens are confused about Trump’s tactics. On Wednesday, Trump announced that his envoy, Steve Witkoff, had successful talks with Vladimir Putin, but then announced on Thursday that the US may still impose further sanctions against Russia. Trying to make sense of it all, one of the Russian tabloids wrote that “it’s like saying the wedding went very well, but the groom was punched and lost 3 teeth, the bride had a fight with her friends and the mother-in-law climbed onto the chandelier, fell down and broke her leg.” If the meeting went “very well,” then why threaten new sanctions? Rosenberg commented on Thursday that there is a “lot of head-scratching” in Moscow and, despite all the talk of a possible summit coming up in a few days’ time, the Russians don’t really know which way this is going to go.
So, will Trump’s threats work? Vladimir Putin has given little indication that he is ready to make concessions or willing to adjust Russia’s core objectives, aiming instead to fully control occupied Ukrainian territories. Many observers believe that while Putin doesn’t want to anger Trump, realising that he may be spurning a chance to improve relations with Washington and the West, his war goals always take precedence. If Russia were able to fully occupy the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and if Kyiv declared Ukraine to be permanently neutral with a limit on the size of its forces, Putin could claim that his war in Ukraine had reached his objectives and only then would agree to peace.
Perhaps we’ll learn of the direction of travel by next weekend, but don’t hold your breath. Donald Trump, a former real-estate wheeler-dealer, is facing an experienced and cunning ex-KGB officer, with 25 years’ at the head of a nuclear power. The odds are stacked in Putin’s favour.
Early this month, the Russian president declared that his country seeks a “lasting and stable peace”, but offered no indication of compromise. Meanwhile he continues military operations and sees the war’s momentum as favourable to Russia. The bottom line is that Putin is not likely to agree to end the war unless terms are heavily tilted in Russia’s favour. He continues to set preconditions that Ukraine and its Western allies deem unacceptable, and there’s little indication of flexibility. Barred from participating in the negotiations, Ukraine is in danger of finding its future decided by its attacker and someone desperate to win the Nobel Peace Prize and therefore likely to be conciliatory towards its mortal enemy. Kyiv will be praying that there will be no repeat of Helsinki, seven years ago.
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John Dobson is a former British diplomat, who also worked in UK Prime Minister John Major’s office between 1995 and 1998. He is currently a visiting fellow at the University of Plymouth.
