On a humid evening in 1972, Eastern Air Lines Flight 401 was approaching Miami when a tiny lightbulb that signals the landing gear is securely locked into place failed to illuminate on the cockpit dashboard. Fixated on this indicator, the entire three-man flight crew failed to notice that the autopilot had been accidentally turned off. The landing gear was perfectly fine. The crew flew a fully functional airplane into the ground, killing 101 people.
ANCHORING BIAS
We see versions of this in hospital wards, at crime scenes, in corporate boardrooms, offices, and at home.
We suffer from a fundamental, hardwired psychological glitch known as “anchoring bias.” This is our stubborn tendency to anchor onto the initial information we encounter. Once that anchor is dropped, human psychology and institutional structures are wired to protect our ego and peace of mind, and resist admitting a mistake, ignoring any subsequent evidence or doubts that cause chaos, uncertainty, and grief for the time wasted on the wrong path.
THE SPOT (MIS-) DIAGNOSIS
Consider a scenario that plays out in emergency rooms worldwide. A patient presents with upper abdominal discomfort. The busy physician labels the issue as “severe acidity,” and prescribes an antacid. The patient, relieved to have a simple explanation, goes home. The next day, the pain worsens, but the patient clings to the diagnosis as a case of acidity and indigestion. When they finally see another doctor, they complain: “ I have bad acidity.” This is called “diagnostic momentum”.
The second doctor accepts the initial label, missing the subtle signs of an atypical appendicitis or a blocked gallbladder until it becomes a life-threatening surgical emergency. The initial impression becomes a pair of psychological blinders. Even the patient holds on to the wrong diagnosis because of:
•Validation of pain: A diagnosis proves their suffering is real and not “all in their head.”
•The comfort of a label: Having a specific diagnosis provides a hope of treatment.
•Sunk Cost Fallacy: Patients invest time, money, and emotional energy into a specific treatment plan, making it painful to start all over again.
•Identity Alignment: Over time, a chronic diagnosis can become a core part of a person’s social identity and support community.
•Distrust of the Medical System: If a lot of effort is required for diagnosis, a patient may reject changes out of fear of entering medical limbo again.
MISSED CLUES
The same mental trap routinely paralyzes criminal investigations. When a murderer cleverly stages a crime scene to look like a suicide, accident, or a natural death, overworked first responders often accept that presentation at face value. Once the case is informally classified as a suicide, the detectives subconsciously ignore contradictory details. A missing weapon is not searched for, or defensive bruises are ignored. By the time someone raises a doubt, the scene has been disturbed, fingerprints wiped away, DNA contaminated, and the trail is permanently cold. Why does the system stop investigating “Solved” crimes:
•Confirmation Bias: Investigators seek evidence that supports their theory and ignore facts that contradict it.
•Resource Scarcity: Police departments face strict budget and time constraints. They must prioritize active, unfolding crimes over past, “resolved” ones.
•Cognitive Dissonance: It is psychologically agonizing for police and prosecutors to accept that their work left a guilty person free and punished an innocent one.
•Institutional Reputation: Admitting a major error destroys public trust, damages careers, and invites massive civil lawsuits.
•Systemic Inertia: The legal system is built on finality. Once appeals are exhausted, legal hurdles make reopening a closed case incredibly difficult.
FIRST IMPRESSION IS THE BEST(WORST) IMPRESSION
Why is the human mind so easily trapped by its first guess? The answer lies in:
•Cognitive evolution: The human brain, to save energy, prioritizes quick, coherent stories over messy, evolving realities. In the ancient world, making a fast decision and sticking to it was a survival mechanism. Today, to admit that our initial diagnosis was wrong is to embrace chaos and uncertainty. We would rather be comfortably wrong than painfully confused.
•The “Red Herring” Bug: If a major computer system crash is caused by a random power-supply fault that just happened during a routine software update, hours are spent rewriting and rolling back the new code.
•The “Horns or Halo Effect”: If the first impression is bad (“Horns Effect”), the teacher subconsciously grades all subsequent work more harshly, viewing the student as lazy. If the first impression is excellent (the “Halo Effect”), the teacher skims past later mistakes, assuming the student is just having an “off day.”
•Availability Heuristic: The human mind prefers a
shortcut to a coherent story over efforts to an accurate one.
•Corporate Blindspot: How Kodak went bankrupt by ignoring their own engineer, Steve Sasson’s invention of the first digital camera, BlackBerry and Nokia ignored the iPhone smartphone revolution, and Blockbuster ignored Netflix’s offer of sale, are all part of corporate folklore.
Doctors are trained to have a differential diagnosis, and investigators to prepare a list of suspects or possible causes. Whenever human beings must analyse data under pressure, anchoring bias and premature closure cause them to stick to their first guess, often with disastrous results.
SAFETY VERIFICATION
High-stakes industries learned long ago that you cannot fix this bias by asking people to “be more objective.” Instead, they build rigid, legally mandated organizational safety mechanisms to shatter the trance of the first impression.
•In aviation, they created the Two-Challenge Rule. If a junior co-pilot notices the captain is erring due to a mistaken initial assumption, they are trained to challenge the captain exactly twice. If the captain ignores both warnings, the junior officer is legally mandated to take physical control of the aircraft.
•In modern surgery, we use the WHO Surgical Safety Checklist before the first incision is made. The entire operating room stops for a mandatory “Time Out.” The surgeon, nurses, and anaesthesiologists must loudly state the patient’s name, the exact procedure, and the correct surgical site, to avoid a wrong mental map of the patient.
•Nuclear power plants use “Independent Verification” by another operator to confirm or contradict the initial impression of a crisis by a single operator. Aerospace has “Failure Mode and Effects Analysis” (FMEA) before a rocket launch. Fire departments use the “Incident Command System” (ICS). Road design is based on “Forced Compliance Design”, such as Rumble strips, and not on the assumption that drivers will always pay attention. Agencies use a formal “Red Team” of paid analysts to play the devil’s advocate.
•Battle plans are tested through “Wargaming” against simulated enemy actions, using tabletop simulations, advanced computer models, and live field exercises to identify logistical flaws and strategic blind spots. Alternate plans are formulated for the unexpected. In the chaos of battle, officers easily fall prey to “hindsight bias” or rewriting the narrative to protect their egos. Immediately following a mission, units hold a mandatory “After Action Review” (AAR).
HANDY PSYCHOLOGICAL TOOLS
You can install your own psychological circuitbreakers to overcome the anchoring bias of initial impressions before making major life choices, starting a new venture, or navigating a crisis.
•Premortem: Before you optimistically launch a new business, buy a house, or commit to a major career shift, think as if twelve months later, this venture has been an absolute disaster, with loss of money, time, and peace of mind. Now, work backward to write how it failed. This allows you to spot glaring red flags you were ignoring out of excitement.
•Search for Disconfirming Evidence: If you are convinced a certain diet, investment strategy, or medical treatment is flawless, force yourself to search for its flaws. Be your own “Devil’s advocate.” You do not need to change your mind, but force your brain to process opposing arguments.
•Warning others: Warn a friend or family member diving into a risky new venture or clinging to a dubious medical opinion, without crushing their momentum or triggering an ego lockdown. Avoid telling them “You are wrong” or “Why do you think that’s a good investment?” Instead, ask, “How will we handle it if the market dips next month?” Frame your warnings as strategic armour, not a stop sign. Work together to co-create an exit ramp, if certain parameters change, and decide on alternatives.
•Outside Consultant: Beat the “sunk cost fallacy” on a failing project, a toxic relationship, or a wrong career path, by asking yourself: “If I were an outside expert unemotionally looking at my life today, what would I abandon?”
First impressions may help with day-to-day survival, but they are a terrible anchor for complex, high-stakes decisions. By forcing ourselves to pause, step back, and actively use these cognitive tools to hunt for evidence that proves us wrong, we can break free from the cognitive tunnel and change course before we run out of options. The youngest minds with no preset blinkers are often the ones to ask unexpected questions, and the experienced and wise seniors point out the weak links in the plan or procedure.
*Dr. P.S. Venkatesh Rao is a Consultant Surgeon, Former Faculty CMC (Vellore), AIIMS (New Delhi), and a polymath in Bengaluru, drpsvrao.com
