The Southwest Monsoon is setting in over Kerala, officially announcing the entry of monsoon in India; however, marking a delayed start to the rainy season after missing its original forecast window. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has formally predicted a below-normal monsoon for 2026, projecting seasonal rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) due to a strengthening El Niño condition.
Arrival of Monsoon in India: Kerala
The Southwest Monsoon officially arrived in India on June 4, 2026, making landfall over the Kerala coast. This onset marks a slight delay compared to the typical June 1 arrival date and misses the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) earlier forecast windows of May 26 and May 27. Rains hit coastal areas like Kochi on the morning of June 4, 2026. The IMD has issued yellow and orange alerts for heavy downpours across several districts, including Alappuzha, Kottayam, and Ernakulam.
India Monsoon Update June 4: When will Monsoon Rains Take Place in Delhi
The Southwest Monsoon is projected to arrive in Delhi by June 27 or the first week of July, keeping close to its standard onset timeline. Even though the main monsoon system has just hit Kerala, Delhi-NCR is experiencing an active pre-monsoon phase. Temperatures have dipped recently, giving relief to the residents after a prolonged phase of heatwaves and 45 Degrees Celsius plus temperatures.
India Monsoon Update June 4: When will Monsoon Rains Take Place in UP
The Southwestern Monsoon is projected to hit the neighbouring state of Delhi, Uttar Pradesh around the same time, last week of June to first week of July. According to the IMD’s updated Long-Range Forecast, Northwest India (including Uttar Pradesh) is expected to receive below-normal overall rainfall (<92% of the Long Period Average) due to a dominating El Niño cycle. Furthermore, June 2026 is projected to feature above-normal heatwave days in isolated parts of the state before the monsoon completely establishes itself.
India Monsoon Update June 4: When will Monsoon Rains Take Place in Punjab and Haryana
The Southwestern Monsoon is projected to hit the agriculture rich states of Punjab and Haryana around June 27 to July 4, around the same time when other northern Indian states receive their first monsoon rains. Due to the effects of El Niño, less rainfall will force farmers to rely excessively on tube wells and ground pumps, triggering massive groundwater depletion concerns.
The El Niño Impact on the Southwest Monsoon in India
Climate models from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and IMD indicate an 80% to 90% likelihood of a strong El Niño phase developing through the June–September period. This warming pattern in the Pacific Ocean disrupts moisture-laden winds, threatening to create extended dry spells and uneven rain distribution in the latter half of the season. June 2026 is specifically expected to see below-normal rainfall alongside above-normal maximum temperatures across most states.
