In an increasingly multipolar world, India has sought to maintain strategic autonomy while expanding partnerships with major global powers. From its engagement in the Quad to its leadership role in BRICS, New Delhi has attempted to balance competing interests while advancing its own vision of global governance. However, geopolitical shocks in 2025 exposed the limits of this strategy. Trade tensions with the United States, border frictions with China, instability in South Asia, and continuing ties with Russia have complicated India’s diplomatic positioning. As 2026 unfolds, the key question remains: can India transform its balancing strategy into a proactive role that shapes the emerging global order?
In recent years, India has positioned itself as a key balancing force in an increasingly multipolar world, guided by the principle of strategic autonomy. This approach has allowed New Delhi to deepen engagement with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—bringing together the United States, Japan, and Australia for Indo-Pacific stability—while simultaneously maintaining long-standing ties with Russia in defense and energy, including the ongoing S-400 deliveries. At the same time, India has promoted BRICS as a platform representing the interests of the Global South and advocating for reforms in global governance institutions.
Navigating Systemic Shocks
However, the shocks of 2025 revealed the limits of this delicate balancing act. The imposition of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on countries purchasing Russian oil, a brief but intense conflict with Pakistan, and political instability in neighboring Bangladesh and Nepal exposed vulnerabilities in India’s strategy. Maintaining strategic autonomy without appearing indecisive or overly cautious has become increasingly difficult.
From the perspective of United States policymakers, India’s autonomy is sometimes perceived as hedging. Washington has repeatedly encouraged New Delhi to reduce its dependence on Russian defense equipment and energy imports. Although cooperation in defense, technology, and trade expanded in early 2026, disagreements over tariffs, oil purchases, and expectations regarding alignment against China continue to create friction.
Relations with China remain complex. Border tensions persist along the Line of Actual Control, yet bilateral trade continues to grow, demonstrating the economic interdependence that coexists with geopolitical competition. India’s presidency of BRICS in 2026 represents an important diplomatic opportunity. If managed effectively, the summit could help India position itself as a bridge between major powers and the Global South, particularly if Chinese President Xi Jinping participates.
The Diplomatic Toolkit
The potential revival of a Quad leaders’ summit in 2026 will provide another test of India’s balancing strategy. Economic diplomacy, however, remains one of India’s strongest tools. Initiatives such as the export of digital public infrastructure like the Unified Payments Interface, leadership in the International Solar Alliance, and vaccine diplomacy have significantly strengthened India’s global image and influence.
At the same time, the “Neighbourhood First” policy faces growing challenges. Political transformations in Bangladesh and Nepal, combined with persistent tensions with Pakistan, demonstrate that stability in South Asia cannot be taken for granted. India may need to move beyond reactive diplomacy and instead build long-term influence through infrastructure connectivity, trade integration, and pragmatic engagement.
Looking ahead, India’s foreign policy must evolve from balancing external powers to actively shaping the emerging global order. Economic growth, demographic momentum, and technological development provide the foundation for India to emerge as a credible “third pole” in world politics. Yet 2026 will be a critical year. Strategic autonomy will remain effective only if India can combine independence with decisive leadership and pragmatic partnerships in a rapidly changing international system.
The author is from: Yerevan State University, Armenia & NXT Fellow 2026
