THE DEBUT
Kangana Ranaut has clearly grabbed the media headlines with her candidature from Mandi. She is one of the most sought after faces at media conclaves, for the one thing she does know is how to craft the perfect sound bite. However, if elected, what will be her role in the BJP? Will she find a place in the Council of Ministers (3.0), if, of course, the trends are right and Narendra Modi makes a comeback for the third time. There are some who are a bit sceptical since the flamboyant actor does have a tendency to talk herself into a controversy. Will she focus on Parliament and party work, or will she be distracted in settling some scores of her own vis-a-vis her rivals in Bollywood, whom she refers to as the Nepo-Mafia (those who have come in through the nepotism route)?
Her narrative is very much in keeping with the chaiwala story of a self-made success, which is one reason why she fits in so well with the BJP ecosystem. Whatever plans the BJP has in store for her, it would be interesting to see how she plays out her new role, as she debuts in electoral politics. The BJP has its fair share of Bollywood MPs, though most have not excelled in Parliament, except Smriti Irani (but then she is more TV than Bollywood). Either way, the Kangana campaign will be an interesting one to follow.
WHO WILL BLINK FIRST?
With Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal behind bars, there are two issues at play here. One is the legal case where Kejriwal has the ace legal eagle Abhishek Manu Singhvi defending him. Singhvi’s arguments in court while defending Kejriwal have gone viral on social media, making him one of the most sought after legal counsels in India today. The other conflict is between the Centre and the Delhi government. Although Kejriwal has announced that he will continue to run the capital from behind bars, there are some logistical hurdles to be crossed. It’s not going to be easy for him to govern the capital on a minute to minute basis. But with Kejriwal remaining adamant, will the government be left with no option but to announce Governor’s Rule? If that happens then it could work in Kejriwal’s favour, drumming up some sympathy for him. The AAP may not do as well in the Lok Sabha elections, with its star campaigner behind bars. But a few Lok Sabha seats is not Kejriwal’s goal. His eye is on the coming Assembly elections, due early next year. And certainly the Governor’s Rule would buttress the narration of victimhood that he will take to the people of Delhi.
EXACTLY WHO IS CONTESTING THESE ELECTIONS?
If there is one message from the BJP’s candidate list—at the time of writing the party had released around 404 of the 543 candidates for the coming Lok Sabha—it is this: that the Prime Minister’s focus is beyond these elections. Winnability is not the sole criterion in choosing candidates, which is why loudmouths with popular appeal have been benched. These include Anantkumar Hedge, Sadhvi Pragya Thakur, Ramesh Bidhuri and Parvesh Varma. Those who have questioned the Prime Minister such as Feroze Varun Gandhi have also been benched despite him winning Pilibhit with a record margin. By making Union ministers fight elections (who had earlier come via the Rajya Sabha route) the PM is also grooming his team, not just for 2024 but also for 2029, encouraging leaders to have an on ground connect. Another cue that the PM is looking beyond 2024 is the move to bring former Chief Ministers such as M.L. Khattar, ShivRaj Singh Chouhan, Trivendra Singh Rawat, Biplab Deb and Basavaraj Bommai to the Centre. This not only gives him a good bench strength of faces with governance experience to choose from, but also distracts the ex CMs away from state politics where he is building a new leadership.
So clearly the BJP is looking beyond 2024. As is the Aam Admi Party, for it’s clear that it’s not the Lok Sabha polls but the coming Delhi elections that are Kejriwal’s priority. To a lesser extent, the same can be said for the Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal and even those who are not part of the I.N.D.I.A bloc such as the Akali Dal and the TDP. For most of the regional parties the state polls are more important than the Lok Sabha ones. The Congress claims that it barely has any funds to mount a comprehensive campaign due to the freezing of its bank accounts and will leave most of the campaigning (i.e. funding) to the candidates themselves.
Which brings us to the key question: who then is fighting the 2024 Lok Sabha?