ReformUK races ahead in local elections, toppling Tory strongholds, shaking Labour, and signaling a dramatic shift in British politics.
LONDON: During the 1 May local elections and mayoral elections it is clear ReformUK have performed like a Ferrari, in an unprecedented surge that is bigger and better for the party than even UKIP at its height in 2014.
At the time of writing ReformUK have their first Mayor in Dame Andrea Jenkyns, a former Tory minister, Labour has scrapped through with 3 Mayors, and the Conservatives have 2 Mayors.
ReformUK also have their first woman Member of Parliament now that Sarah Pochin has won the seat in Runcorn and Helbsy from the Labour party.
In the local Council elections ReformUK are setting the pace, early results show Reform with more than double the number of Tory Councillors with 7 Councils out of 23 already in the bag. In a shocking loss for Conservatives they are neck and neck with the Lib Dems who have enjoyed a big gain; Labour are trailing behind even the independent candidates almost parallel with the Greens. Two sectarian candidates have been elected in Rochdale and Burnley.
Local elections are often not a reflection of general election voting intention but they are symptomatic of the nation’s vibe, which is an abject rejection of Labour’s handling of the economy and a reaction to 14 years of Tory inefficacy over 4 election cycles. Kemi Badenoch the current Tory leader has not regained the trust that she promised, she has been barren of policies that are urgently needed. The message brought home by Rupert Lowe, formerly of ReformUK but now an independent MP, about deporting illegal immigrants has resonated with the population who are looking for a fresh approach. The Conservatives have 2 voices that chime with public sentiment in Robert Jenrick Shadow Justice Secretary and Chris Philp Shadow Home Secretary, despite their worthy intentions these two are carrying the baggage of the previous 14 years.
Successive British governments have failed on British politics and focussed on sectarian appeasement not geopolitics; the new sectarian MPs/candidates bring in foreign politics and introduce foreign conflicts into local issues which are a distraction and reduce Britain’s image and influence in the wider world.
UK needs a government for the geopolitical and geoeconomic climate of today, not a government that unquestionably accepts the yellow brick road proffered by senior civil servants; a government that recognises today each state is working in its own particular interest.
During the ColdWar1.0 the US became known as “leader of the free world” due to their President’s battle against communism on behalf the liberal democracies. The enemy has changed and the fight continues but today’s US President has jettisoned NATO and much of the EU in favour of focussing on US priority issues such as the Artic, Greenland and the Indo-Pacific; apart from how much it is costing and what it can offer Ukraine is totally irrelevant to US. President Trump did not campaign on being the “leader of the free world”, UK and EU took it for granted but less than 100 days into the Trump presidency the reality dawned.
So what is UK’s standing in the world and do democratic elections hold the powers accountable? UK’s standing is higher in Europe than in Eurasia and the Global South. These local elections do show elections hold powers accountable. Faced with a choice between the two traditionally dominant parties, the woke-ridden Lib Dems and Farage’s fearsome Ferrari, combined with the national dissatisfaction with successive governments has made folks abandon their local priorities to vote with a sentiment more like in a general election, to vote for an untried and untested party who will “drain the swamp”.
Accountability rests with democracy and the leaders of democracies, with ReformUK surging to 30% in projected national vote share, Nigel Farage is a proven disruptor, if his ReformUK party continue with its current momentum it is not inconceivable that he will become Prime Minister in 2028-29. Implementation of policy will be key to his success, indeed to any governments’ success; the Civil Service is responsible for implementation. Published in November 2023 the Independent Review of Governance and Accountability in the Civil Service, by The Rt Hon Lord Maude of Horsham, found “The public interest in having a permanent politically impartial Civil Service, able to serve any democratically-elected government effectively and to give ministers well-informed and robust advice, is not well assured due to the absence of systematic external scrutiny.” The Institute for Government commended the recommendations “The Maude review will be an important reference document for whoever lives in No.10”. The IfG noted that Maude’s approach was to give ministers more input into the appointment of top civil servants (American style) but they also noted its publication coincided with Rishi Sunak’s second ministerial reshuffle, which pointed to a desire to bury Maude’s ideas and a cool reception within government. Another government response to this Review was from Jeremy Quinn, Sunak’s Cabinet Secretary “we are undertaking a review of the 125 most significant public bodies to improve efficiency and performance; and we are strengthening the process to identify new chairs and board members of public bodies to develop and support a strong pipeline of candidates. However, a number of long-term recommendations, if implemented now, would serve to detract from the focus on the Prime Minister’s five critical priorities.”
In the series “Yes Minister” Sir Humphrey observed ““Ministers come, and Ministers go. The average Minister lasts less than eleven months in any Department”, according to Cabinet Office data Civil Servants are retiring at an average age of 62.
The question remains are Civil Servants accountable for implementing the government of the day’s manifesto commitments and strategy or is it one way plan that Prime Ministers and Ministers are expected to spin?