The Mumbai attack targeted India’s heart, the commercial centre of India. Pahalgam targeted India’s soul. It was designed to undermine the very idea of India, its spiritual traditions, and culture. It was an attack on Sanatan Dharma.
NEW DELHI: Pahalgam, at 2740m, a popular tourist spot famed for its scenic beauty and scintillating weather, is a two-hour drive from Srinagar, heading east along NH 44 and NH 501. Pahalgam is also one of the two routes to reach the holy Amarnath caves, the other being via Baltal. The large number of tourists who thronged Pahalgam on Tuesday, 22 April, was a testament to the return of normalcy in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Indeed, since August 2019, when the special status of Jammu and Kashmir was revoked, the UT has witnessed an unprecedented influx of tourists. However, all that was set to change on this balmy afternoon.
At about 2:45 pm, Pakistan-backed terrorists emerged from a nearby forest and opened indiscriminate fire on tourists who had gone to Baisaran meadow, a scenic uphill area accessible only on foot or by pony rides, and about 40 minutes’ walking distance from the road head. The terrorists, all Muslims, were believed to be five in number, and some were dressed in combat fatigues. In this remote area, they segregated the men and sought to know their religious identities. Then, in what can only be described as an act of total depravity, they identified the Hindu men and shot them dead in cold blood in front of their stunned wives and children. It was the worst terrorist attack on India since the horrific Mumbai attacks of November 2008. In a sense, it was even worse than the Mumbai carnage. The Mumbai attack targeted India’s heart, the commercial centre of India. Pahalgam targeted India’s soul. It was designed to undermine the very idea of India, its spiritual traditions, and culture. It was an attack on Sanatana Dharma.
The carnage left 26 dead and many injured. The timing of the attack was not lost on the people of India. It coincided with US Vice President J.D. Vance’s visit to India. At this time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was visiting Saudi Arabia. The attack was deliberate, calculated, and had the markings of the infamous Pakistani ISI all over it. In an act of depravity never seen in India, the terrorists asked the men to recite the Kalima, their trousers were taken down to examine if they were circumcised, and then the Hindus were shot in cold blood. Just a few days earlier, Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir, while addressing the Overseas Pakistanis Convention in Islamabad, spewed hatred on Hindus, reviving Jinnah’s legacy and saying that Hindus and Muslims can never live together. It was a call to incite India’s Muslim community. It was a call for hatred. And soon after, the carnage took place in Pahalgam.
This was an act designed to provoke. India stood outraged. Prime Minister Modi cut short his visit to Saudi Arabia and held an emergency Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting upon his arrival in Delhi. Soon, the Government of India announced the first of a series of measures against Pakistan. The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was held in abeyance, visas were revoked, the Attari border crossing was closed, and the Pakistan Army, Navy, and Air attachés were declared persona non grata and ordered to move back to Pakistan within seven days.
Pakistan retaliated by putting the 1972 Shimla Agreement on hold, recalling all its defence personnel from leave, and conducting missile testing over the Arabian Sea, among other measures. Pakistan’s Minister of Power, Awais Leghari, termed India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty as “an act of water warfare; a cowardly, illegal move.” Pakistani society is concerned about what the suspension could mean for food security. Reduced inflows from the Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) will severely affect Pakistan’s agriculture. It puts uncertainty in the minds of the Pakistani establishment and opens up options for India.
India is no longer obligated to adhere to the restrictions imposed on “flushing” reservoirs to desilt them. The IWT mandates that such flushing be conducted during the peak monsoon season to fill the reservoirs quickly. Now, with the pact in abeyance, desilting can take place at any time. This could be detrimental if executed during the sowing season. Additionally, India is not required to consider Pakistani concerns regarding design specifications for its hydropower projects. India also does not have to share flood data on the rivers.
India can now develop and operate various projects, such as Salal and Baglihar, along with post-2019 projects on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers without skewed IWT-based unjustified restrictions, thereby increasing energy and water control. However, India lacks the infrastructure to block the Western rivers completely; this situation is expected to change in the long run. Significant storage and diversion systems also require years to construct, which limits immediate impacts.
With India-Pakistan relations at a low ebb, there are no indications of a thaw anytime soon. On the contrary, the already strained relationship is likely to deteriorate further. Addressing a rally at Jhanjharpur in Madhubani district of Bihar on 24 April, Prime Minister Modi made it clear that the terrorists and their handlers will pay for the murderous assault of 22 April. “The punishment will be significant and stringent, which these terrorists would have never even thought about,” he said. That was the national mood, too. So, how is this likely to play out?
In the coming days, there will be significant diplomatic activity, focusing on raising world awareness of the brutality of the crime, which undoubtedly was sponsored by Pakistan. Lt Gen Asim Malik, the current DG of ISI; Gen Asim Munir, the chief of the Pakistan army; and Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shahbaz Sharif, must be held accountable for what happened on 22 April. There will also be renewed attention on addressing the terrorist groups operating in J&K and their support networks, which could potentially include local politicians. The national focus now is on the anticipated retaliatory strike by India and the form this could take.
In his rally, the Prime Minister made it clear that there would be consequences for terrorists and their sponsors. While it would be premature to speculate on the options, it would be fair to state that they include all military and non-military measures. They could be restricted or massive in scale. As of now, nothing is off the table.
There are genuine fears that any action by India could lead to similar retaliation by Pakistan, and this could escalate into an all-out war. With both nations being nuclear-armed, the risks are tremendous. Pakistan has continuously used the threat of a nuclear overhang to pursue its policy of bleeding India with a thousand cuts. But the time has come to call a halt to these blackmailing tactics. No self-respecting nation can accept its sons and daughters being brutalised in the manner done on 22 April. So, a stern message must be sent from India this time. And if that escalates into war, so be it.
Deterrence is built not just by a nation’s military and economic strength but also by the will of its leadership. The coming days will test the political establishment like never before. It will also test the will and resoluteness of the people of India. Pakistan has crossed the Lakshman Rekha. It will have to suffer the consequences.
* Maj Gen Dhruv C Katoch is an Army veteran serving as the Director of India Foundation.