Ukraine’s ‘Spiderweb’ drone strike redefined warfare, crippling Russia’s bombers with cheap tech, showcasing future combat’s precision, autonomy, and low-cost disruption.
London: The operation mounted by Ukraine last Sunday was nothing short of spectacular. Some 117 drones, modified from the type of $500 consumer models that normally film weddings, destroyed or disabled a large number of critical Russian bombers valued at about $7 billion. Somewere wrecked as far away as 4,300 kms. At a stroke, Kyiv proved that you can cripple a major power’s air force for the price of a family car, changing the face of warfare for ever. So, what happened?
Kyiv’s large-scale drone attack, codenamed “Spiderweb”, targeted the strategic aircraft that Russia uses for long-range missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. Some 41 heavy bombers were reportedly destroyed or damaged, which the Ukrainians are confident will hinder Russia’s ability to carry out mass strikes on their country in the future. In conventional military doctrine, the destruction of so many strategic aircraft would be planned as part of a multi-million-dollar operation using long-range missiles, probably involving an aircraft carrier and risking the lives of pilots, rather similar to what the US and UK have been doing in recent attacks against the Houthis in Yemen. But Ukraine has achieved a dramatic strategic impact using cheaply produced quad copters similar to those that can be purchased on the streets of any Indian city.
Operation Spiderweb, which according to President Zelensky took 18-months of painstaking planning at great risk and in total secrecy, involved assembling sheds with hidden compartments to contain the nests of drones with their explosives. These were slipped onto lorries which were then driven to their various destinations: two near Moscow, in Ivanova and Dyagilevo; one in the far north, in Olenya close to the secret naval base in Murmansk; and one at Belaya near Irkutsk, which is more than 2,500 miles from Ukraine. With the trucks positioned near the Russian bases, the roof panels of the containers were lifted off by a remotely activated mechanism allowing the drones to fly out and begin their attack. Because of the distances involved, Ukrainian scientists had developed a brilliant system which combined autonomous artificial intelligence algorithms and manual operator intervention. According to the Ukrainian Intelligence Agency (SBU), “during the flight some drones lost signal and switched to performing a mission using artificial intelligence along a pre-planned route. After approaching and contacting a specifically designated target, the warhead was automatically activated”.
By the end of the attack, Kyiv claims that over 40 Russian warplanes were severely damaged or destroyed. According to the head of SBU, Vasyl Maliut, the drones destroyed a number of Russian A-50 surveillance planes, the supersonic Tu-160 and Tu-22 bombers, and the massive Tu-95s, which were developed to carry nuclear bombs and now launch cruise missiles at Ukraine. Altogether, about one third of Russia’s bomber fleet was badly damaged or destroyed.
The timing of the attack was no accident. A Russian delegation was on its way to Istanbul at the time the drones were striking, which was only 48 hours since Moscow had launched its own massive record-setting attack involving 472 drones. The notable difference was that the Ukrainians had targeted only Russian planes, whereas the Russians had targeted Ukrainian infrastructure and civilians, many of whom were killed.
Sunday’s attack was also carried out exactly 29 years to the day after Ukraine handed over dozens of the same strategic bombers to Russia, along with up to 2,000 strategic nuclear warheads and 176 Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles in exchange for the promise under the Budapest Memorandum that its borders would be secure from any Russian invasion. The obvious question is, if Kyiv had kept their nuclear arsenal would Vladimir Putin have dared to launch his full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than 3 years ago? The clear answer is “no”. He would have been deterred because of the danger of a nuclear confrontation; that’s what nuclear weapons are for!Here’s another question. As Vladimir Putin tore up the Budapest Memorandum, can he be trusted to keep to any agreement once his war on Ukraine ends? Only someone duped by Russian propaganda would answer this question with a “yes”.
Ukraine’s extraordinary attack against Russia’s bomber force is arguably one of the most important raids in the history of modern warfare and will have a major and instant effect on Russia’s capabilities. For more than three years, Moscow has been raining bombs on Ukrainian cities, killing more than 13,000 civilian men, women and children, according to the UN Human Rights Mission in Ukraine. Eighty-four percent of the casualties have occurred in territory controlled by the government of Ukraine, and 16 percent in territory occupied by Russia. The loss of so many significant strategic bombers will mean Moscow will have major problems in the near future to continue this slaughter.
In order to maintain its sorties with multiple bombers from different locations firing dozens of cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets, Russia has to maintain a strict rotational system. Military experts reckon that for every bomber in use, a second is being repaired and a third is undergoing long-term maintenance. Before last Sunday, western analysts estimated that Russia had about 90 strategic bombers in operation. Of these, some 13 were totally destroyed during Operation Spiderweb and another 28 damaged, many beyond repair. The Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers that make up most of the losses are no longer being manufactured, and the production of the largest and heaviest bomber in the world, the Tu-160, is so slow that only a few emerge from the factory each year. This will inevitably reduce both the frequency and intensity of Russia’s cruise missile attacks on Ukraine.
Perhaps the most significant result of Spiderweb, however, will be the dramatic effect on the morale of Russian forces, just as its brazenness and ingenuity will lift the spirits of the Ukrainians. Vladimir Putin seems to believe that if you kill enough people they will acquiesce and give up, but Sunday’s operation may be a sign that the pendulum is at last swinging in Ukraine’s favour. Even the great Russian propaganda and disinformation machine will struggle to portray Spiderweb as anything but a disaster for Putin and the Russian forces. The pro-Russian telegram channel “Fighterbomb”, believed to be run by Captain Ilya Tumanov of the Russian army, acknowledged that Sunday would “later be called a ‘black day’ for Russian long-range aviation – and the day is not over yet”.
Beyond the initial reaction, experts agree that Spiderweb was a game-changing moment in modern warfare, with repercussions for every serious military on the planet. The knock-on effects will have the potential to significantly alter how Russia and the US think about the conflict. At very little expense and with jaw-dropping audacity, a small-ish nation has delivered a major strategic setback to one of the most powerful militaries on earth, deep inside its own territory.
The novel deployment of cheap but ultra-modern technology is the reality of the 20thcentury battlefield, where drone power and remote attacks are suddenly key, sending a powerful message with far-reaching consequences. Defence planners around the world will be scratching their heads as to how to cope with this emerging threat.
Spiderweb is exactly what conflicts of the future will look like. The rules of war have just been re-written and the consequences will be felt globally.