The Pahalgam attack has pushed Kashmir back by years and it will take much time and sustained effort to recover lost ground.
PUNE: THE ATTACK
It has been less than a week since the horrific terrorist attack killed 26 tourists in the meadows of Pahalgam, and the sense of anger and revulsion is still strong. It is even difficult to write without getting emotional. And therein lies the danger. The attack has impacted all Indians in collective grief and anger, and calls for retribution have been raised. That retribution will come, but it should not be a knee-jerk reaction. The response must be hard, swift, and well-calibrated and not swamped by emotions.
The attack in Baisaran—a beautiful meadow, which is often called ‘Mini-Switzerland’, marked a change in the terrorist modus operandi. Around four or five terrorists, dressed in camouflage fatigues, armed with M4 carbines and AK-47 assault rifles approached the popular tourist spot in the afternoon of 22 April. They had obviously done a detailed reconnaissance earlier and were helped by local sympathisers. They selected a spot that was accessible only by foot or pony, thus ensuring security response would be delayed. A group patrolled the upper reaches of the mountains to give early warning; another came up to the tourists thronging the area, separated them after ascertaining their religion, and shot them one by one, before disappearing in the thickly wooded mountains adjoining it.
It was a well-planned action, carried out by well-trained terrorists, specifically targeting tourists based on religion. Kashmir had witnessed a spurt of tourism after the near normalcy of the past three years and over two crore tourists had visited the beautiful state in this year itself. The figure was likely to triple in the coming holiday season. Tourism has boomed to a Rs 21,000 Crore industry that has raised the per capita income of ordinary Kashmiris by 10.6%. The mood in Kashmir had changed with a focus on economic prosperity and development, rather than some half-baked notion of separatism, and even local terrorism had declined considerably. Suddenly, the hotels will be deserted again, the shikaras and pony handlers will stand empty; Taxis and tour operators will see their bookings cancelled, and the bustling restaurants lose their customers. All this seems to be part of the plan. Hitting the economic lifeline will raise the sense of discontentment and unrest once again, and put paid to all claims of normalcy.
The most chilling part of the plan was the deliberate communal angle given to it. The victims were asked their religion, told to recite the Kalma, and drop their trousers. Non-Muslims were shot in cold blood. In fact, the only Muslim to be killed was the pony handler Syed Adil Hussain Shah, who bravely helped 8 to 10 tourists out of harm’s way, while he himself got hit.
The communal canard was a deliberate act to bring out the religious divide in Kashmir and also the rest of India. Coming so soon after the passage of the Waqf Amendment Act, it helped touch a sore chord. It is very unfortunate that immediately after the attack, social media was full of posts, calling for retribution on religious lines, Kashmiri students in other parts of the country were hounded, and religious tensions seemed to resurface.
That misses out on the fact that virtually all of Kashmir closed down their shutters in solidarity with the victims. Rallies and candlelight marches were held in Srinagar, in what was called “the murder of Kashmiriyat” and “the shame of Kashmir”. Even politicians of all hues, came together in condemning this act. Kashmir, like the rest of the country, came together in sorrow and anger. That, in itself is a victory, which should be capitalised upon.
THE RESPONSE
Calls for retribution have arisen, and there is no doubt that it will be swift and severe. But the government must not give in to the temptation of a show of force, but adopt a sustainable long-term strategy to strike the root of the problem.
Getting ‘normalcy’ back to Kashmir is the first step. And to do so, the sense of security that existed just a week or so ago, must be restored. That will take much time and effort, and will require a considerable effort from the security and intelligence agencies. It is quite likely that there could be a follow-up strike—maybe not just in Kashmir, but in some other part of the country, as well. That has to be guarded against.
A little-known terrorist group—The Resistance Front, which is actually an offshoot of the banned Lashkar-e-Toiba has claimed responsibility for this act. Some of the terrorists have already been identified. They include Hashim Musa aka Suleiman from Pakistan; Ali Bhai, aka Tulha Bhai, also from Pakistan; Adil Hussain Thokar, a resident of Anand Nag, and Asif Sheikh from Awantipora—who acted as guides and provided logistics and shelter. They, and the others who participated in the heinous attack will be tracked down and eliminated. But it is the head of the hydra—Pakistan—that needs to be addressed.
It is not a coincidence that just a few days before the attack, the Pakistani Army Chief, General Asim Munir issued a veiled warning, calling Kashmir as “Islamabad’s jugular vein,” which Pakistan would not forget. The invoking of the Kashmir issue was designed to divert attention from Pakistan’s political, economic and social mess. The freedom struggle in Baluchistan is intensifying and freedom fighters recently hijacked an entire train. Waziristan has virtually slipped out of control with the growing activities of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, and rising tensions with the Taliban. Ironically, the only peaceful border that Pakistan had at this juncture, was with India. But predictably, they have chosen to activate that as well. This action and the Indian response will raise the India bogie once again, divert Pakistanis from their many problems, and project the army -which had lost much of its sheen – as the only saviour of the country. Perhaps General Asif Munir is himself hoping for some sort of low-level military engagement which will bring the army back to relevance again.
India has already launched a slew of measures, including the cancellation of visas for Pakistanis, expelled diplomats and military attaches from the Pakistani High Commission, and shut the Attari-Wagah border. But the measure that will hurt most is the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—a treaty that has held firm since its inception in 1960, and survived three wars and two decades of insurgency. Ironically, Pakistan’s “Jugular Vein” is the waters flowing from Kashmir’s rivers into Pakistan, which sustains 280 million Pakistanis and irrigates 80% of its cultivated land. That jugular can now be squeezed.
The IWT allows Pakistan to use the waters of the western rivers—the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab; while the Eastern rivers—the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej could be used unrestrictedly by India. The lion’s share of the waters—a whopping 80%—flows into Pakistan. The suspension of this treaty does not mean that water can be shut off like a tap. It will take a decade of building dams, hydroelectric projects, reservoirs, canals and distributaries to harness the waters adequately and divert its flow away from Pakistan. But even on an immediate basis, India can now desilt reservoirs and release waters without informing Pakistan. This means that water can be released in wet months, which could add to flooding, and can be withheld in the dry season when it is most required. That will affect downstream crops in Pakistani Punjab, and the functioning of their Tarbela and Mangla hydroelectric projects, starving it of electricity. The impact of it all will not be seen immediately but can be an existential threat to Pakistan in the long-term—so much so that it declared this to be an “act of war.”
Pakistan has predictably denied the charges, even though the smoking gun points squarely to it. It has followed up with measures of their own, including the cancellation of the use of its airspace by Indian airlines and the suspension of the Shimla agreement—another unequal agreement which gave great concessions to a defeated Pakistan in 1972. But then, the Shimla agreement had not been adhered to by Pakistan, in any case. It had repeatedly broken the sanctity of the LOC and had not followed the policy of non-interference which was stipulated in it. What this will do is to merely activate the LOC, which has been mercifully silent since 2003.
The Pahalgam attack has been the worst terrorist strike on Indian soil since the Mumbai attacks of 2008. It has pushed Kashmir back by years and it will take much time and sustained effort to recover lost ground. There would be a great temptation of a military strike, perhaps one that even alters the LOC, but that has to be carefully considered. It may be better to merely exploit the many fault lines of Pakistan—Balochistan, Waziristan, POK—to tie the army down there. It has to be ensured that the atmosphere of safety and normalcy, which brought in tourists, investments and prosperity returns to Kashmir once again. But most of all, it must be ensured, that the canard of communalism, which the terrorists hoped to raise, does not take root in Kashmir, or anywhere else. If it does, the terrorists would have attained their aim.
* Ajay Singh is the international award-winning author of seven books and over 200 articles. He is a regular contributor to The Sunday Guardian.