USA will not tolerate a imbalanced relationship, and Europe should be responsible for its own security. In other words, US commitment to NATO and Europe has reduced, raising ripples across the continent.
PUNE: When President Donald Trump came up with the idea of relocating Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, clearing the areaand converting the coastal enclave into “The Riviera of the Middle East,”it would have been laughed off, had it not come from the most powerful man in the world. The removal of over 2 million people from their homes found enthusiastic support in Israel, but met with revulsion and anger everywhere else. Implausible as the idea may seem, it revealed the mind of President Trump in his vision to make America great again, and shape the world in his own perception.
USA also offered to buy Greenland from Denmark – a statement that prompted Denmark to increase its meagre defence budget and announce coldly that the territory is not up for sale. And even as he set about using federal troops to block the Mexican border, he outraged his northern neighbour by announcing, “Canada can be the 51st state of the USA and its Prime Minister, a Governor.”
To add fuel to the fire, he declared his intention to take back the Panama Canal from Panama and rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America since, “It has a nice ring to it.” These are not ideal pronouncements. They reflect a mindset that could well set about making these utterances a reality. Trump has also walked out of global institutions, and in one of his first steps, withdrew from the Paris Summit, thus making the world’s largest carbon emitter, a passenger in the fight against global warming. It withdrew from the WHO and imposed sanctions on the International Criminal Court over its actions to declare Israeli Prime Minister, Netanyahu as a war criminal. And also closed down the US Agency for International Development (USAID), affecting the funding to over 120 nations. US aid has been used to exert undue influence in many nations, like Bangladesh and even India, and it may not be too bad, but these actions will lead to a gradual weakening of global institutions.
Trumpfired the first salvo in his tariff wars by imposing 25%additional tariffs on Canada and Mexicoostensibly to, “Hold the countries accountable to halting illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl and other drugs.” Fortunately, a month long reprieve was granted to Mexico and Canada, but it could be a temporary respite. China was slapped with 10 % additional tariffs, and the European Union – USA‘s largest trading partner – would be next in the firing line. Also came the threat that 100% tariff would be imposed on BRICS nations if they tried to replace the dollar with their own currencies.All this could be an deliberate stance to improve USA’s negotiating positionby offering concessions later – a favoured tactic in ‘The Art of the Deal.’ But it could lead to reciprocal tariffs and start a calamitous trade war, which will break down free movement of goods and services that propel the global economy, and its effect will also hurt USA.
Internally, Trump has allowed his close friend Elon Musk, to run amok with his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Thishas allowed him to shut offices, give pink slips to thousands of workers, and hit every major government organisation, including the CIA and the Pentagon. He also carried out his election promise of deporting illegal immigrants by sending them back in military aircraft, bound in shackles and chains – including 104immigrants who arrived in India in this undignified manner. These high-on-optics actions may appeal to his voter base, but deporting all illegal immigrants is virtually impossible. And of course, it does not consider that virtually every white man who set foot in Americaand ousted the native Indians, is in fact, an illegal immigrant.
The US has a system of checks and balances and many of his internal actions have been stalled by federal courts. By the President has untrammelled powers in dealing with foreign affairs, and that is where his vision of the world could have the strongest fallout.
Trump the Peacemaker
Trump had stated that he will not start wars, but end them. To his credit, no wars had been fought by USA during his first tenure. And he has followed up his promise to end wars. In Gaza, a peace deal was finally hammered out in which Hamas agreed to release 33 hostages in return for 1700 Palestinian prisoners in aninitial six-week ceasefire. This would be followed by a next phase of six weeks which could see the release of all hostages and the removal of all Israeli troops from Gaza. Finally, in the last phase, talks will begin on hammering out a permanent resolution – perhaps based on some sort of a two-state solution.
Trump claims credit for bringing about the ceasefire, but his pronouncements on taking over Gaza have almost scuttled the deal. His idea of peace in the Middle East seems to virtually allow Israel to do as it pleases and put an end to any prospects of a two state solution. But Saudi has stated that any normalisation of ties with Israel is dependent on the establishment of a Palestinian state, and there may be a need to give concessions later. After all, the US security architecture in the region hinges around Israel, Saudi and US influence, edging out Russia and China and also isolate Iran. That suits India as it couldenable the development of I2U2 (India, Israel, USA, UAE) ties and also the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor. But it would be at the cost of ties with Iran which could come next under the pump.
He has also appended years of US policyover Ukraine by his ceasefire proposal. In his much touted talk with Putin, he has agreed virtually to all Russia’s demands – and that too, without keeping Ukraine or Europe in the loop. In the proposed terms, Ukraine’s membership of NATO is ruled out; it has been told to abandon its “ Illusionary goal of a return to the pre-2014 levels,” and accept the status quo, in which Russia keeps the land it has occupied – virtuallytwenty percent of prime Ukrainian territory. European and UN troops(No US troops)would be placed in Ukraine, as security guarantees, but as a non-NATO force – implying that USA will not be called to assist if things get out of hand. Aid to Ukraine has been categorically ruled out – and with amazing chutzpah, he has suggested that Ukraine “Pay for the tens of billions of US assistance, with little to show,” by granting access to USA to its minerals and rare earths.Ukraine will be unable to continue the fight without US aid, and will be forced to accept the terms – which though one-sided, could finally put an end to the needless war. Europe has been left holding the baby and also face the future prospects of further Russian expansion westwards. Trump has given injunctions to Europe to increase defence spending to 5 percent of its GDP, since “USA will not tolerate a imbalanced relationship, and Europe should be responsible for its own security.” In other words, US commitment to NATO and Europe has reduced, raising ripples across the continent.
The prospect of peace in Europe – even if completely on Russian terms is actually a good thing. Trump has signalled a willingness to get closer to Russia. This will break Russia’s isolation and its undue leaning towards China. Trump had identified China as the main threat facing the world in this century, and can now focus on the Indo-Pacific. Perhaps there will be a thrust on revitalising QUAD, which will help reduce China’s expansionist belligerence in this part of the world.
India and Trump
India seems to have got off on a sound footing with Modi’s visit to Washington which helped cement the ties that were formed in his first term. Prime Minister Modi and President Trump share a sound equation, which will develop the upward trajectory of the relationship. But it will be more transactional and India would be forced to make concessions. In this very significant meeting, both sides agreed to develop trade to $500 billion by 2030 – up from the $200 billion now. But to reduce the imbalance (India has a $46 Billion surplus) India would have to buy more defence equipment – like F-35 stealth aircraft, Javelin missiles, Stryker vehicles and Poseidon maritime recce aircraft – and increase our purchase of US gas and oil. In a way, that would not be bad. Although expensive, it could provide access to new technology and diversify us from existing Russian equipment. Increased US investments could also help make India a manufacturing hub that could supplant China. It will also offer greater areas of cooperation in Artificial Intelligence, semi-conductors, nuclear energy, space and emerging technologies. The launch of the US-India COMPACT (Catalysing Opportunities for military partnerships, accentuated commerce and technology) will deepen military, economic and technological cooperation. But in return India will have to open its markets to US goods, and perhaps take a more pronounced US stance with respect to Russia and China. Therein lies the danger. India’s strategic autonomy has been the cornerstone of its foreign policy and it will take a lot of deft diplomacy to ensure that it is maintained. But overall, in spite of the occasional erratic statement, Indo-US relations couldprosper and India will be the gainer for that.
There will be a bumpy five year ride ahead with much turbulence could be felt along the way. Trump’s actions could change the world order as America revamps its role. India could be quite a pivotal player in that. The challenge lies in furthering our relations with the USA and at the same time developing independent ties with Europe, Russia, China, Israel, Saudi,Japan, Iran, and other powers to ensure that all our eggs don’t lie in one basket, and that our national interests are always kept in mind.
Ajay Singh is the international award winning author of seven books and over 200 articles. He is a regular contributor to the Sunday Guardian.