PANAJI: The Eastern Mediterranean has become a hotbed of geopolitical competition, given its vast reserves of natural gas, its proximity to Europe, and its intersection with key trade and energy routes.
Qatar’s recent strategic pivot into the Eastern Mediterranean region marks a significant departure from its traditional energy-focused strategies. While Qatar has been a global powerhouse in the distribution of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and has made significant investments, such as in a gas plant in Texas, its involvement in the Eastern Mediterranean appears to be driven by more than just economic incentives. This move suggests a calculated geopolitical strategy aimed at establishing a foothold in one of the world’s most strategically sensitive regions.
The Eastern Mediterranean has become a hotbed of geopolitical competition, given its vast reserves of natural gas, its proximity to Europe, and its intersection with key trade and energy routes. For Qatar, expanding into this region goes beyond economics. Its actions signal an intention to project influence and gain leverage in an area where the stakes are not merely financial but also geopolitical. By embedding itself in the region under the guise of energy development, Qatar can deploy assets—such as ships, men, and equipment—ostensibly for business purposes, but with the potential for dual-use in intelligence gathering and strategic disruption.
The Eastern Mediterranean also provides Qatar with an opportunity to expand its influence through soft power, alliances, and even covert operations. For instance, its gas development projects could serve as a cover for transferring advanced technology, equipment, and possibly funding to groups or entities aligned with its broader regional agenda. There is historical precedent for such covert actions, as seen in how Hamas allegedly misused international aid to construct an extensive network of underground tunnels in Gaza. This precedent raises concerns that Qatari investments in the Eastern Mediterranean could enable similar activities by regional terror groups.
Qatar’s Eastern Mediterranean strategy appears to be closely aligned with Turkey, a country with which it shares strong ideological and strategic ties. Turkey has long been a proponent of ambitious pipeline projects that would traverse disputed waters, undermining Cypriot sovereignty and Israeli plans for a gas pipeline connecting to Greece and the European Union. This alignment is not coincidental but part of a broader shared Islamist agenda pursued by both Qatar and Turkey.
Turkey’s aggressive posturing in the Eastern Mediterranean has drawn widespread international criticism, particularly from the European Union, Greece, and Cyprus. By leveraging its partnership with Turkey, Qatar gains an indirect means to influence and disrupt the region’s energy dynamics without drawing the same level of scrutiny. This partnership could also enable Qatar to act as an intermediary, allowing it to advance Turkey’s goals while maintaining its polished diplomatic image.
In the event of conflict or heightened tensions, Qatar’s presence in the region could serve as a platform for intelligence operations and disruptive actions against Israel and other regional actors. The Eastern Mediterranean’s proximity to key Israeli assets, including its natural gas infrastructure and naval operations, makes it an ideal location for surveillance and interference. Moreover, Qatar’s partnerships with major international energy companies provide it with a channel to influence US and European policymakers indirectly. These companies, motivated by their financial interests, could be persuaded to lobby against
Israeli initiatives, creating an additional layer of geopolitical complexity.
Qatar’s ambitions in the Eastern Mediterranean pose significant security challenges for the region. Countries like Egypt and Cyprus, which have cooperated with Qatar on various energy projects, may inadvertently enable its broader strategic goals. This cooperation could backfire, undermining their own security and the stability of the region. For example, Qatari investments could facilitate the transfer of advanced equipment and technology that might end up in the hands of hostile actors.
Furthermore, Qatar’s activities could exacerbate existing tensions in the region, particularly between Turkey and its rivals. Turkey’s aggressive stance in the Eastern Mediterranean has already heightened tensions with Greece, Cyprus, and Israel. By aligning itself with Turkey, Qatar risks being drawn into these disputes, further destabilizing the region.
Qatar’s strategy also underscores a broader issue: the compartmentalization of US and allied bureaucracies. Qatar and Turkey have consistently exploited this compartmentalization to pursue their agendas without facing unified opposition. For instance, Qatar’s polished diplomatic approach allows it to maintain strong ties with Western governments, even as it supports Islamist groups and policies that run counter to Western interests. This duality enables Qatar to operate in a grey zone, advancing its strategic goals while minimizing the risks of international backlash.
The US and its allies must recognize the broader implications of Qatar’s activities in the Eastern Mediterranean. While Qatar remains a key player in the global energy market, its actions in this region highlight the need for a more coordinated and comprehensive approach to countering its influence. This includes addressing the potential security risks associated with Qatari investments and ensuring that these investments do not undermine the stability of the region.
Qatar’s pivot to the Eastern Mediterranean represents a significant shift in its strategic calculus. While its activities are framed as energy development, they carry profound geopolitical implications. By establishing a presence in this strategically vital region, Qatar seeks to project power, influence regional dynamics, and advance its broader Islamist agenda. Its partnership with Turkey and its ability to leverage international energy companies further complicate the geopolitical landscape, posing challenges for Israel, Cyprus, Egypt, and the broader international community.
To address these challenges, regional and global stakeholders must adopt a more unified and strategic approach to counter Qatar’s influence. This includes scrutinizing its investments, strengthening regional alliances, and addressing the broader ideological underpinnings of its actions. Failure to do so risks enabling Qatar to further entrench itself in the Eastern Mediterranean, with potentially far-reaching consequences for regional security and stability.
Savio Rodrigues is the founder and editor-in-chief of Goa Chronicle.