New Delhi: The upcoming Vice Presidential election is shaping up to be an intriguing political contest, with both the ruling NDA and the opposition INDIA bloc set to announce their candidates in the coming days. While the BJP has convened a parliamentary party meeting today, the opposition will hold its strategy session a day later, on Monday.
According to indications from the BJP, the party is likely to put forward a candidate with a Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) background. However, the crucial question is whether the nominee will belong to a forward caste or a backward community.
On the opposition side, it is almost certain that the Congress will announce the candidate on behalf of the INDI Alliance. What remains to be seen is whether Congress fields a Jat leader—aiming to capitalise on farmer politics after the resignation of Jagdeep Dhankhar—or whether it opts for a different face.
The matter of a Jat nominee has assumed importance as the opposition had earlier accused the BJP of being “anti-Jat” in the wake of Dhankhar’s exit. Although BJP’s victory appears inevitable given its numbers, the opposition is expected to leverage this election for political messaging and mobilising sympathy.
This election is set against the backdrop of a highly combative monsoon session of Parliament, where the united opposition disrupted proceedings repeatedly, forcing the government to pass its key bills amid chaos. The four remaining days of the session are also expected to see turmoil.
The schedule of the election is already clear. The last date for nominations is 21 August, which also marks the last day of the monsoon session, and polling will take place on 9 September. Significantly, the NDA plans to file its nomination on 21 August, with all BJP MPs, Chief Ministers, and allies directed to be present in Delhi. The ruling bloc will also attempt to showcase its unity while courting neutral players like the BJD, YSR Congress, and BRS.
Numerically, BJP’s position looks comfortable. Out of 782 MPs in both Houses, the BJP and its allies command the support of about 425 MPs—well past the halfway mark. This means the NDA has no obstacle to securing victory. The party’s focus is instead on expanding its margin, replicating or surpassing the scale of Jagdeep Dhankhar’s win in 2022.
That year, BJP successfully managed to draw support from neutral and opposition parties. The TMC abstained from voting, and parties like the BSP, BJD, and YSR Congress extended support to Dhankhar, enabling him to secure over 500 votes. Congress candidate Margaret Alva, by contrast, was backed by only 182 MPs.
The political arithmetic, however, has shifted since then. While BJP has grown stronger in the Rajya Sabha, the opposition has consolidated in the Lok Sabha under Congress’s leadership. Congress has recently drawn both TMC and AAP closer through “dinner diplomacy,” ensuring their participation in joint opposition moves.
The opposition is particularly united in its resistance to the revision of the Bihar voter list under the SIR system, which has emerged as a rallying point for parties like TMC and AAP that seek to appeal to Muslim voters.
Neutral parties, however, remain a wildcard. In Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, the SIR issue has little relevance, making the BJD, BRS, and YSR Congress less likely to align with the opposition. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy recently accused his rival Chandrababu Naidu of colluding with Rahul Gandhi, a stance that makes an opposition alignment even more improbable. While sudden shifts in political equations cannot be ruled out, current signals suggest these neutral players may ultimately back the NDA or abstain.
The core question, therefore, is not whether BJP’s candidate will win but by what margin. The party is keen to secure a decisive mandate larger than Dhankhar’s, strengthening its image of political dominance and unity. The opposition, on the other hand, is determined to use the contest to highlight its own consolidation, with particular emphasis on Jat representation and farmer politics.
As the deadline for nominations nears, the atmosphere is charged with speculation, and the election promises to be less about the outcome and more about the political messaging on both sides.
