Kolkata: As the first phase of the high-stakes West Bengal Assembly elections wraps up, the political spotlight has now moved decisively to the second phase slated for April 29, with parties actively fine-tuning their strategies in an increasingly dynamic electoral environment. A distinct trend is becoming visible in the campaign playbook of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is concentrating its efforts on constituencies that have a comparatively lower proportion of Muslim voters. This approach is consistent with strategies the party has previously deployed in states such as Assam and Bihar, where demographic considerations have significantly influenced electoral outcomes.
As per the 2011 Census, Muslims accounted for roughly 27% of West Bengal’s population. More recent estimates indicate that this share has crossed the 30% mark, bringing the community close to onethird of the state’s overall population. Such demographic realities have made electoral calculations more intricate and central to the strategies of all major political players.
Available data shows that Muslims comprise more than 50% of the electorate in 43 Assembly constituencies, while in another 20 seats their share lies between 40% and 50%. Altogether, there are 63 constituencies where the Muslim voter base exceeds 40%. On the other hand, 231 seats fall below this threshold, and these constituencies have emerged as the focal point of the BJP’s electoral strategy. Of these 231 seats, 121 have already gone to polls in the first phase.
In the upcoming second phase, a total of 142 constituencies are set to vote, out of which 32 are considered minority-dominated, with Muslim populations exceeding 40%. This leaves around 110 seats where the BJP is expected to concentrate much of its campaign energy.
Observers suggest that the BJP is channeling a substantial portion of its resources into these 110 constituencies in the second phase, with the aim of consolidating Hindu votes to bolster its electoral prospects. Unlike in several other states where it operates within alliances, the party is contesting independently in West Bengal, directly fielding candidates across these key seats.
This strategic focus is informed by its performance in the 2021 Assembly elections. Out of the 231 constituencies with less than 40% Muslim voters, the BJP managed to win 74 seats, while the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) secured 156. Significantly, the BJP finished as the runnerup in 154 of these seats, giving it a strong foundation to build upon. Party strategists believe that if it can retain its existing victories while converting a meaningful share of these second-place finishes into wins, it could edge closer to achieving a majority.
At the same time, voting patterns among Muslim communities continue to play a decisive role in shaping the state’s political landscape. In recent elections, there has been a clear consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of the TMC, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. Survey findings indicate that the party’s share of Muslim votes rose from approximately 51% in 2016 to nearly 75% in 2021. According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), as many as 84% of Muslim voters backed the TMC in the previous Assembly elections.
However, the 2026 electoral contest introduces new dynamics. The Indian National Congress has stepped up its campaign efforts, particularly in constituencies with a significant Muslim population. This could potentially lead to a division of Muslim votes—an aspect the BJP is monitoring closely. Even a modest split between the Congress and the TMC could influence results in tightly contested seats.
The BJP’s performance in 2021 also exposed certain shortcomings. Despite having favourable demographics in many Hindu-majority constituencies, the party failed to translate these advantages into victories in several instances, partly due to doubts among voters regarding its winnability. Analysts believe that prominent victories—especially in Nandigram—have since helped alter this perception, possibly enhancing the party’s appeal in comparable constituencies.
Building on these insights, the BJP is now stepping up its campaign in approximately 155 constituencies where it had previously finished second despite advantageous demographic conditions. The party’s strategy in the remaining phases is likely to centre on converting these close contests into electoral wins.
With voter alignments continuing to evolve and electoral margins becoming increasingly narrow, political analysts argue that the second phase of polling could be crucial. Its outcome will play a crucial role in determining whether the BJP’s targeted constituency strategy translates into tangible gains, or whether the TMC succeeds in maintaining its dominance in the face of a more competitive and fragmented opposition.
