NEW DELHI: The BJP has decided to completely change its strategy for the West Bengal Assembly elections. According to sources, the party’s Bihar model will now be extended to Bengal, with the RSS providing full organisational support. Instead of directly attacking Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, the BJP will push other issues to the forefront. The Citizenship Amendment Act, infiltration and law and order will remain central themes, but personal attacks on Mamata will be avoided.
The BJP believes that sharp attacks on Mamata Banerjee during the last Assembly election backfired by generating sympathy for her, which ultimately helped the Trinamool Congress. This time, the party is determined not to repeat that mistake. Union Home Minister Amit Shah is personally monitoring the Bengal campaign. During his visits to the state, he has consistently raised infiltration and local governance issues to corner the TMC.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visits are expected to begin after Makar Sankranti, when he will set the overall political agenda. He may flag off the new Vande Bharat train between Howrah and Guwahati and announce several development projects for Bengal and Assam.
Assembly elections are scheduled in Bengal, Assam, Kerala and Tamil Nadu in April-May. For the BJP, the real focus is on Assam and Bengal. In Assam, the party is aiming to retain power for a third consecutive term. In Bengal, it is determined to make a serious bid for power this time. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the objective is more modest—to increase vote share and win a few seats—but the main battlefield among these four states is clearly Bengal.
In West Bengal, the BJP’s principal opponent remains the Trinamool Congress. The opposition INDIA bloc is fragmented in the state. Recently, TMC leader Humayun Kabir, who had laid the foundation stone of the Babri Masjid, announced a new party and said he would contest separately. Asaduddin Owaisi’s party from Hyderabad has also entered the fray. Just as multiple regional parties emerged in Bihar, Bengal is also set to see several smaller players. Kabir’s group and Owaisi’s party are expected to target the Muslim vote bank, a development that could indirectly benefit the BJP by splitting the TMC’s traditional support.
The BJP has made infiltration its principal campaign issue and is seeking to shift the election towards a Hindutva-oriented narrative. There are indications that this issue is strengthening Hindu polarisation. Mamata Banerjee’s recent statements also suggest that she is feeling the pressure. She tried to provoke Amit Shah by calling him a disciple of Shakuni, Dushasana and Duryodhana, but the BJP responded cautiously. Party leaders believe Mamata will try to exploit any sharp reaction to generate sympathy, so they are deliberately avoiding giving her that opportunity.
Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury’s attacks on Mamata are also helping the BJP. Chowdhury accused her of vote rigging, saying she was the real “vote thief”. BJP spokesperson Gaurav Bhatia remarked that Chowdhury had effectively exposed the same allegations the opposition had earlier levelled against Prime Minister Modi. The BJP’s approach is to simply respond to statements made by other leaders while maintaining restraint on its own.
The Congress’s posture indicates that it is not particularly invested in the Bengal contest. As in Bihar, it is likely to enter the fray more as a formality. The Congress and the Left will fight the elections together, and some Congress strategists privately feel that if Mamata loses, it could create space for their revival. At present, however, the Congress is largely marginalised in Bengal, a situation the BJP hopes to exploit.
After its strong showing in Bihar, the BJP is confident, while the opposition remains divided. This was visible even during the monsoon session of Parliament, where opposition parties took differing positions on MNREGA. In West Bengal, the TMC held separate protests against the BJP on the issue, while the Congress is planning its own nationwide agitation. The party has announced protests across the country over MNREGA, after its earlier demonstration on December 23 failed to make an impact. There are also reports that Rahul Gandhi may be travelling abroad during this period, a point the BJP has already begun to highlight.
In this political environment, the Congress faces multiple challenges, while the BJP believes that its cautious, issue-driven Bengal strategy could finally put Mamata Banerjee on the defensive.
