The party’s feedback suggests the CM’s popularity and law-and-order record could offset local anti-incumbency.
The extent of freedom given to Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in selecting candidates is emerging as one of the key factors that could determine the BJP’s performance in the upcoming assembly election, with party leaders discussing how the central and state leaderships should divide responsibility for ticket distribution.
According to BJP sources familiar with the discussions within the party and the Sangh, the current assessment does not point to any substantial anti-incumbency against the Yogi Adityanath government. Instead, the focus within the organisation is increasingly on ensuring that candidate selection does not disturb the political and social equations that the party believes are currently working in its favour.
Party leaders point out that Uttar Pradesh is an exceptionally large and politically complex state, with electoral equations varying significantly across regions and constituencies. They believe that the major decisions on who should be given the ticket from which constituency should therefore substantially involve the state leadership, particularly Adityanath, who is the Chief Minister and the principal face of the BJP’s campaign in the state.
According to the sources, the issue being discussed within the party is not whether the central leadership will have a role in ticket distribution, but how much operational freedom should be given to the state leadership to take into account local political and social equations, since sections of the BJP fear that excessive interference by the central leadership could create turbulence during the campaign. “Uttar Pradesh is too large and politically complex for candidate selection to be driven entirely from Delhi.
The state leadership has to have adequate freedom, particularly the Chief Minister, because he will ultimately lead the campaign,” a BJP source said. The sources said the popularity of Adityanath is itself an important component of the party’s electoral assessment. Law and order continues to be cited within the BJP as one of the principal factors associated with the Chief Minister’s appeal. According to party feedback, this the state leadership to take into account local political and social equations, since sections of the BJP fear that excessive interference by the central leadership could create turbulence during the campaign. “Uttar Pradesh is too large and politically complex for candidate selection to be driven entirely from Delhi.
The state leadership has to have adequate freedom, particularly the Chief Minister, because he will ultimately lead the campaign,” a BJP source said. The sources said the popularity of Adityanath is itself an important component of the party’s electoral assessment. Law and order continues to be cited within the BJP as one of the principal factors associated with the Chief Minister’s appeal.
According to party feedback, this popularity, along with the law-and-order plank, could help contain the effect of any anti-incumbency that exists at the local or administrative level. At the same time, party sources acknowledged the existence of a perception in sections of the state’s political and bureaucratic establishment and among some social groups that the Adityanath government favours particular castes.
However, the BJP’s internal assessment is that this perception has not acquired sufficient resonance on the ground to translate into a significant political sentiment against the Chief Minister. The sources said the party’s present assessment is that there is no substantial anti-incumbency wave against the government. The bigger organisational challenge, therefore, is expected to be managing constituency-level factors, including the choice of candidates, local caste equations and the relationship between the state and central leaderships.
The discussion over ticket distribution has consequently assumed importance because the BJP’s campaign will be built around Adityanath’s leadership in the state. Party leaders believe that if the Chief Minister is given adequate space to select candidates who fit local political equations, it could strengthen the campaign. Conversely, they are concerned that excessive intervention from the central leadership could complicate the campaign by overriding the state leadership’s assessment of individual constituencies.
