A major Cabinet reshuffle is expected in mid-June, ahead of Parliament session and key state elections.
NEW DELHI: A Cabinet reshuffle is expected around mid-June, ahead of the Parliament session likely to commence in midJuly. This will be the first ministerial reshuffle of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third consecutive term and will come just days before the Bihar Assembly elections in October and the West Bengal polls slated for May next year.
According to initial assessments, while the BJPled National Democratic Alliance is expected to regain power in Bihar, the BJP is likely to face a significant loss of seats in West Bengal. As per ministerial staff and party insiders, former Union Minister Upendra Kushwaha—who heads the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) and was nominated to the Rajya Sabha by the BJP last year—may be inducted into the Union Cabinet.
This move is aimed at consolidating support from Bihar’s influential Koeri-Kurmi community. If this materialises, it could dent the political capital of Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary, who also belongs to the same Koeri-Kurmi community. Sources also indicate that some ministers from Uttar Pradesh are likely to be dropped, in line with performance evaluations and political recalibrations ahead of the 2027 state elections.
The Prime Minister’s Office, which operates a comprehensive and highly structured performance tracking mechanism for ministries, is said to have already finalised names for exclusion based on administrative delivery and public perception.
According to those familiar with the internal review, many sitting ministers have underperformed, with their shortcomings masked by the high-profile work of a few efficient ministries. Inductions into the Cabinet will be decided through political consultation, with caste arithmetic and alliance optics playing a determining role. Ministers from West Bengal are also expected to be affected.
The BJP, which made historic gains in the 2021 Assembly elections— rising from just 3 seats in 2016 to 74—has since witnessed a steady erosion in its support base. Internal assessments indicate that if elections were held today, the party might struggle to retain even 35 seats.
At least one of the top four or five high-profile portfolios—Defence, Home, Finance, External Affairs, or Education—is expected to witness a change. The reshuffle, sources say, is not merely a routine administrative exercise but a broader effort at political signalling and electoral groundwork. Also likely to be affected are ministers from the Northeast and eastern coastal states, in the wake of long-pending organisational changes within the BJP, including the expected replacement of party president Jagat Prakash Nadda. Currently, 11 ministers in the Cabinet are from Uttar Pradesh, including Modi and Rajya Sabha members like Hardeep Singh Puri. Bihar accounts for eight ministers in the Union Council, including both Cabinet-level and junior positions.
Madhya Pradesh has seven ministers, three of whom are from the Rajya Sabha. It is believed that some of these faces may change in the upcoming reshuffle. Among the 72 members in the Union Council of Ministers, 11 are from NDA allies, while the remaining 61 belong to the BJP. All of them took the oath on June 9, 2024, following the NDA’s return to power.