New Delhi: Bihar’s verdict is not just a landslide for the NDA—projected to cross 205 seats—but a blunt rejection of the Congress party’s national political strategy. With the party collapsing toward a historic low of just four seats (at 4 pm) in the 243-member Assembly, the results amount to a direct repudiation of the two planks Rahul Gandhi had placed at the centre of his politics: a nationwide caste census and the allegation of “vote chori” (vote theft).
The irony is stark. Gandhi had positioned the caste census and the slogan “jitni abadi, utna haq” as the backbone of his messaging. Bihar, with its layered caste matrix, was supposed to be the ideal proving ground. The state’s 2023 caste survey—showing 84.5% of the population as OBC, EBC, SC, or ST—gave the Congress what it believed was a ready-made socio-political majority. The party assumed this 84.5% bloc would consolidate behind its justice-and-representation pitch.
Although the Bihar caste survey shows that OBCs, EBCs, SCs and STs together make up around 84% of the population, this figure is not separate from the state’s religious composition. Muslims, who account for 17.7% of Bihar’s population, are distributed within these caste categories—most Pasmanda Muslims fall under OBC or EBC, while a smaller section, such as Syeds, are counted as ‘General.’ In other words, the 84% figure already includes a large share of Muslims, and does not sit outside or in addition to the state’s religious breakdown.
Instead, the strategy collapsed dramatically. The NDA swept the state, and the Congress failed to register even in its traditional pockets, sinking to its lowest-ever tally. The leadership’s decision to effectively ignore forward caste interests—despite their historical support for the Congress—has triggered deeper doubts about the party’s political understanding.
Alliance insiders had told this correspondent after polling ended that the Congress, contesting 61 seats, was unlikely to perform well and would remain under 10 seats. Even they, however, admit that Friday’s numbers have come as a shock.
Equally damaging is the electorate’s rejection of Gandhi’s “Voter Adhikar Yatra.” The 16-day, 1,300-km march across Bihar in August–September sought to build a narrative around the claim that 65 lakh voters had been improperly deleted from electoral rolls through collusion between the EC and the BJP. The NDA’s sweeping victory has effectively dismissed this charge, with voters showing no sign of being persuaded by the “vote chori” narrative.
Gandhi’s time allocation is also drawing scrutiny. He invested 16 days into the “vote chori” yatra but spent only around seven days on the actual campaign—addressing 15 rallies and beginning his tour only on 29 October. Critics argue this imbalance reflects a deeper strategic failure: prioritizing an unproven grievance narrative over conventional, high-contact campaigning. It also raises uncomfortable questions about the judgement of his advisers.
The 2025 Bihar election has revealed a sharp disconnect between the issues the Congress chose to foreground and what Bihar’s voters believed truly mattered.
