As China lashes out, everyone has to be concerned: Gordon Chang

New Delhi: Only “a few people in senior Communist Party circles truly know what is behind China’s new aggressiveness, what is now known as ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’,” said Gordon Chang in an email interaction with The Sunday Guardian, when asked why China would possibly go for a tense stand-off with India along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) at a time when the world is reeling under the coronavirus pandemic and China itself is not free from the virus.

The US-based columnist, author and China expert added that everyone had reasons to be concerned as “China is roiling its borders. Not only are Chinese troops in Indian territory, China since the middle of February has been engaged in a series of boat-bumping and other incidents in the South China and East China Seas with six other countries. Moreover, China’s military has increased the tempo of dangerous intercepts of the US Navy in its peripheral waters and skies. There have been multiple threats of invasion of Taiwan in recent months. As China lashes out, everyone has to be concerned.”

He believes that the stand-off is not going to ease soon. “This pattern of belligerent behaviour, among other things, suggests that getting China off Indian soil will take a long time. Beijing is in no mood to compromise, and perhaps only the prospect of defeat will get Chinese generals to return to their original positions,” he said.

On the question of the direction the US-China “Cold War” was taking, Gordon Chang said, “As China is taking on its neighbours, it is also challenging the United States. Some call the tense situation today the beginning of a new Cold War; others more correctly point out Beijing has been trying to undermine the United States for decades. Let’s remember that in May of last year Beijing declared a ‘people’s war’ on the US.”

“What is different this time” according to him “is that America now has a President who is pushing back hard.”

So what are the chances of this “war” escalating into a conflict may be in the South China Sea?

“In this confrontation, anything can happen. There could be World War III, but far more likely is a long struggle,” he said.

He believes that “the present is an especially risky time” because “too often in the past, American leaders and others warned the Chinese but never carried through. In short, the world taught China to ignore what we said. That emboldened the worst elements in Beijing by showing everybody else that aggression worked. Now, as a result, Chinese leaders think they can do whatever they want. The world, however, will at one point have to stand firm. That point will be extraordinarily dangerous.”

But what about the situation in China? Is there any unease in China about the pandemic and the crisis it has unleashed on the world? Any soul-searching? Any criticism of the government’s policy?

To which Chang replied, “We know not everyone in Beijing endorses its provocative approach to the world, but no senior leader expresses disagreement in public. That’s a sign Xi Jinping remains strong.”

And how much of this current crisis has to do with Xi Jinping personally and his personality? And is he secure “for life” as President?

“Xi is going for broke, but his China is not strong enough to stand against all the adversaries he is creating. At some point—and I think that point could come within a year, especially if President Trump wins re-election—the Chinese leader will create a confrontation that China will lose. Xi Jinping is arrogant, and he overestimates his ability to intimidate others,” said Chang.

He went on to add, “How can the world impose costs on China? Xi is taking China back to a state-dominated, closed system, returning China to totalitarianism. This has occurred several times in Chinese history, and it has never worked out well for the country. Unfortunately for China, this is occurring in a global downturn and a period of de-globalization. China’s system is unsustainable, needing constant financial input from the outside. Other countries can cut the flow of money and technology to the modern Chinese state. Beijing is particularly vulnerable because the more we learn about its role in spreading coronavirus the more likely that countries will cut China off from what it needs. China prospered in a period of globalization and general prosperity. It is not clear it can navigate an era of the opposite: the erection of political barriers and recession.”