New Delhi: As campaigning for the first phase of the Bihar Assembly election concluded on Tuesday, discussions within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) have already begun shifting from poll campaign to post-poll leadership possibilities.
While the alliance is contesting under the leadership of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, senior figures within the JD(U), BJP, LJP (Ram Vilas), Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and the Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal (RLJD) privately acknowledge that the state will see a new Chief Minister once the government is formed after the results are declared on 14 November.
Within the BJP, there is growing expectation that if the NDA secures a decisive majority, the party will stake claim to the Chief Minister’s post and Kumar will happily recede to the background.
Names being discussed include both Deputy Chief Ministers Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha, Health Minister Mangal Pandey, and former state BJP president Sanjay Jaiswal.
Senior party functionaries say that the experience of appointing relatively new or first-time Chief Ministers in some other BJP-ruled states has not yielded the desired administrative or political outcomes, and that Bihar — with its complex caste composition and history of coalition balancing — would require a leader with established political weight and administrative familiarity.
There is also internal discussion around a broader power-sharing formula aimed at maintaining cohesion within the alliance. Under the configuration being informally considered, the BJP would hold the Chief Minister’s post, while the two Deputy Chief Ministers would be from the JD(U) and the LJP (Ram Vilas). Meanwhile, RLJD chief Upendra Kushwaha may be moved to the Centre as a Union minister, to retain his influence while avoiding overlapping political space within the state government.
This sense of confidence or over-confidence depending on how one wants to see it, is visible even as few senior NDA strategist privately concede that the contest remains highly competitive.
This confidence among state leaders stems from three factors: the response to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s roadshow in Patna, the belief that the RJD has not fully shed the image associated with “jungle raj”, and the Rs 10,000 direct financial assistance scheme for women, which ground-level workers say is generating noticeable traction, particularly among younger women and economically vulnerable households.
NDA leaders argue that while there is visible anti-incumbency of various magnitude, voters will ultimately prioritise predictability and security. “There is anger, but there is also memory,” a senior JD(U) leader said. “People are weighing what they want changed and what they don’t want disturbed.Lack of jobs is an issue but the possibility of the return of jungle raj will trump over everything”.
However, amid this confidence, NDA leaders would do well to recall the 1998 Madhya Pradesh Assembly election. The BJP, certain of victory, had finalized cabinet portfolios and circulated pamphlets projecting party leader Vikram Verma as Chief Minister well before results were announced—only to see the Congress return back to power under Digvijaya Singh. Narendra Modi, ironically, was the BJP’s state in-charge there at the time.
