Opposition unity falters as BJP eyes fresh political realignments nationwide
The very survival of the INDIA bloc has come under serious strain following the BJP’s sweeping victory in West Bengal and a series of strategic missteps by the Congress party. According to sources, the BJP is preparing to escalate “Operation Lotus” on an unprecedented scale. The process had already begun during the Assembly elections in five states, with seven Rajya Sabha MPs from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) shifting to the BJP. The focus has now moved decisively to Lok Sabha MPs.
Indications of a major split within the AAP are growing as Punjab elections approach. At least three of its Lok Sabha MPs are being viewed as vulnerable. The BJP is also closely tracking developments in Maharashtra, where further political churn appears likely. Observers believe that after the TMC’s heavy defeat in Bengal, attracting defections from within its ranks may become significantly easier. Former Supreme Court Justice Markandey Katju has publicly suggested that several TMC MPs could cross over to the BJP.
If internal BJP assessments are accurate, the party believes it can reach a majority in the Lok Sabha before the year ends. The numbers are straightforward: the BJP currently holds 240 seats and requires 32 more to touch the 272 mark. Potential targets include AAP (3 seats), Uddhav Thackeray’s UBT faction (9 seats), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (8 seats). After setbacks in Bengal and Tamil Nadu, these parties are facing existential anxieties. Most crucial are the 28 TMC MPs, whose future loyalties have become a matter of intense speculation.
For Mamata Banerjee, protecting the TMC may prove to be her toughest political battle. At 72, questions are being raised about whether she can sustain the same intensity of political combat. Unease among TMC MPs is palpable. After a decade in power, many could reassess their positions, barring a small core of loyalists. With Prime Minister Modi and his strategists known for calibrated surprises, the possibility of swift political realignment cannot be dismissed.
The repercussions are expected to extend to Uttar Pradesh as well, where MPs from the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress are reportedly anxious about shifting equations.
The roots of the present crisis trace back to the formation of the INDIA alliance itself. The bloc was conceptualized by JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar and RJD leader Lalu Yadav. Their blueprint proposed Nitish as convener and prime ministerial face of the Opposition for 2024, while Lalu would elevate Tejashwi Yadav as Chief Minister of Bihar. The Congress rejected the proposal, unwilling to project Nitish as the alliance’s face.
This was the second such rebuff. Ahead of the 2019 general elections, Nitish had floated a similar idea, which was also declined. That decision ultimately pushed him back into the BJP-led NDA. Lalu Yadav, disillusioned, withdrew from active maneuvering.
Although the INDIA bloc was formally constituted before the 2024 general elections and improved upon its 2019 performance, it fell short of forming a government. The BJP’s “400 Paar” slogan became a liability, as the Opposition successfully framed it as a threat to reservations. This narrative yielded dividends in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Haryana.
However, post-election unity quickly fractured. The Congress, under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, struggled to provide cohesive direction. Mamata Banerjee and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal resisted Rahul’s leadership, weakening collective strategy.
Learning from the Lok Sabha setback, Prime Minister Modi recalibrated swiftly. The BJP pivoted back to Hindutva, countering Congress’s caste-based politics and reshaping the political discourse. The first major test was Haryana, where the BJP secured a decisive victory, triggering visible cracks within the INDIA bloc. Victories in Maharashtra and Delhi followed.
The introduction of the State-level Identity Register (SIR), beginning with Bihar, further altered the narrative. From the Red Fort on August 15, Prime Minister Modi linked SIR to illegal infiltration, effectively setting the electoral agenda. The Opposition failed to anticipate the strategic implications.
Believing SIR to be a potent issue, the Opposition launched protests from Parliament to the streets. The result aligned with BJP strategy. By foregrounding the deletion of 6.5 million names in Bihar, the Opposition inadvertently sharpened communal polarization. To date, it has not presented a verified individual among the deleted names. As Bihar’s elections began, SIR lost momentum as a campaign issue. Rahul Gandhi shifted from the EVM debate to allegations of “vote theft,” but this strategy faltered.
Subsequent elections in five key states exposed further Congress miscalculations. In Assam, the early deployment of Gaurav Gogoi and later Priyanka Gandhi weakened the party’s position. In Kerala, anti-incumbency against the Left delivered victory to Congress, though the state unit endorsed the Socio-Economic and Caste Census—contrary to the central leadership’s earlier resistance. The Kerala Congress argued that SIR-related dynamics ultimately benefited them.
In Tamil Nadu, SIR failed to gain traction. The DMK’s crushing defeat dramatically altered regional equations. Congress’s decision to distance itself from its decades-old ally DMK and instead back the TVK inflicted reputational damage on both Congress and the broader alliance.
In West Bengal, Congress mounted an aggressive campaign against the TMC, seemingly unprepared for the possibility of a TMC collapse. The BJP’s sweeping victory and government formation left the Opposition stunned.
For two years since the 18th Lok Sabha was constituted, the INDIA bloc had hoped for cracks within the NDA. Instead, its own cohesion now appears fragile. The defeats of the TMC in Bengal and the DMK in Tamil Nadu have transformed the political landscape. Mamata Banerjee and the DMK leadership have grown increasingly critical of Congress. Akhilesh Yadav of the SP has also distanced himself, while AAP has already exited the alliance framework.
The BJP views this emerging realignment with confidence. With Assembly elections due early next year in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa, and Manipur, the party appears intent on capitalizing on Opposition fragmentation—aiming to weaken it further before the next electoral cycle.
