NEW DELHI: This time, the Congress will rely less on outside candidates in the Rajya Sabha elections scheduled next month. Indications suggest that local leaders will be given preference in most states, with senior advocate and party leader Abhishek Manu Singhvi being a key exception. Learning from past setbacks in Haryana and Himachal Pradesh, the party is attempting a revised strategy. However, even this recalibration may not fully eliminate the risk of cross-voting. Internal factionalism remains a significant concern. After Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, fears of cross-voting have now surfaced in Telangana as well.
Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) chief and former Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao has announced that his party will field a candidate, turning the election into a political test against the Congress government led by Chief Minister Revanth Reddy. The BRS move is being seen as an attempt to settle political scores after the Congress made inroads among BRS MLAs. Sources indicate that the BJP could indirectly support the BRS from within. The candidate’s name is expected to be announced before the nomination deadline, with indications that a prominent local face may be chosen.
For Congress, Singhvi remains the first priority. However, for the second seat, the party is considering B. Sudarshan Reddy, who had earlier contested the Vice Presidential election as the Opposition’s nominee and lost. The party is keen to bring him to the Rajya Sabha. Yet several local leaders have staked their claim, complicating the decision-making process.
Elections are scheduled for 37 Rajya Sabha seats across ten states on March 16. Congress is confident of winning two seats in Telangana, along with one seat each in Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. In Jharkhand and Assam, prospects depend on support from allies. In Tamil Nadu, the situation hinges on the stance of the DMK. Sources say that Congress Organization General Secretary K.C. Venugopal recently met DMK leaders, but no breakthrough was achieved. Congress is seeking not only a Rajya Sabha seat but also a larger share in Assembly seats and a role in power-sharing arrangements. The DMK is reportedly unwilling, and with political dynamics in Tamil Nadu shifting rapidly, uncertainties persist.
In Telangana’s 119-member Assembly, 41 MLAs are required to secure one Rajya Sabha seat. Congress has 66 MLAs of its own and one CPI member, taking its tally to 67. The BRS has 37 MLAs. This means that while Congress can comfortably secure one seat, it needs additional support to clinch the second. The contest for the second seat has evolved into a prestige battle between Revanth Reddy and Chandrashekar Rao. Since its defeat in the Assembly elections, the BRS has faced consecutive electoral setbacks. A victory in the Rajya Sabha election could provide a morale boost to its cadre. For Congress, losing the second seat would alter political equations significantly.
Though ten BRS MLAs are said to be aligned with Congress, Rajya Sabha elections are conducted through secret ballot, allowing the possibility of cross-voting. Congress requires 15 additional votes to secure the second seat. If AIMIM’s seven MLAs, the BJP’s eight MLAs, or dissatisfied legislators act strategically, the party could face defeat. Another challenge is that granting a ticket to Sudarshan Reddy may trigger cross-voting from overlooked aspirants.
In Himachal Pradesh, another Congress-ruled state, the party is again inclined toward local candidates. Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu is advocating for former Union Minister Anand Sharma, while former state Congress president Pratibha Singh is considered close to the Gandhi family. In the previous Rajya Sabha election, Singhvi lost despite Congress having sufficient numbers — 40 MLAs when only 31 were required to win. With Assembly elections due next year, the BJP is expected to field a candidate and focus on disgruntled legislators. Speculation even suggested that Sukhu himself could be sent to the Rajya Sabha to counter anti-incumbency, though such a move appears unlikely. Haryana presents another complex scenario. Leaders such as Alka Lamba and Pawan Khera are said to be in consideration, while others claim local roots to strengthen their case. However, sources indicate that the Congress high command is unlikely to repeat past mistakes and may firmly back a local candidate. In recalibrating caste equations, the party has bolstered Jat leadership under Bhupinder Hooda with OBC representation through state president Rao Birender Singh. There is discussion within the party about fielding a forward-caste candidate, possibly a Brahmin, in response to BJP’s social engineering strategies.
In Chhattisgarh, two seats are up for election. Based on the current strength in the Assembly, BJP and Congress should secure one seat each. However, factional tensions within Congress could make retaining its seat difficult. BJP needs four additional MLAs to capture a second seat. If Congress fails to fill five vacant seats nationally, its position in the Rajya Sabha could weaken further, potentially affecting its claim to the post of Leader of Opposition in the Upper House. Amid shifting political equations and internal turbulence, the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections pose a significant test for the party across multiple states.
