CABINET RESHUFFLE POST 15 JUNE?
The capital is abuzz with speculation that the Narendra Modi government will finally see a cabinet reshuffle. This has been on the cards ever since the BJP appointed a new party chief, for Nitin Nabin needs to get his team in place. Some members from the Council of Ministers (including a few high profile cabinet ones) are tipped to return to the party for organisational work. Accommodating them within the party would also soften the blow of losing a ministerial berth. Only after that would the PM go ahead with the reshuffle. It is also being speculated that at least two states may see a change in CMs. Some governors may be recalled back to the cabinet as well. But, as they say, wait and watch.
WILL THE CONGRESS TAKE MAMATA BACK?
A picture of Mamata Banerjee hugging (or was it gripping her fiercely for support?) Sonia Gandhi at the INDIA bloc meeting made all the headlines. This was followed by a meeting of Mamata with Sonia, while her nephew Abhishek Banerjee met Rahul Gandhi. Given that her party is on the verge of a split there is some speculation as to whether the former West Bengal CM is planning a ghar wapsi. This is the same Mamata Banerjee who refused to take Rahul Gandhi’s leadership seriously. While this may suit a weakened Mamata, does it suit the Congress? Local leaders such as Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, whose politics has been based on opposing the TMC are vehemently opposed to this. Rahul is displaying some maturity, judging by the warm welcome he gave Mamata and her nephew Abhishek in Delhi. In fact, Rahul is said to have offered a beleaguered Abhishek refuge in Telangana should he want to take refuge in a “friendly” state from all the cases against him. However, for now it seems that the TMC-Congress merger is on hold. The Congress needs to figure out how best to accommodate Mamata without alienating its own base. She would need a high profile post—some claim she wants to be the Leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha (a post that is currently occupied by Mallikarjun Kharge). Making her a party general secretary seems more reasonable (also Mamata does not have a Rajya Sabha seat as yet), but that is something Mamata feels is more her nephew’s level than hers. So, watch this space.
BEING AKHILESH YADAV The Samajwadi Party is the second largest party in the Opposition with its chunk of 37 MPs. This number becomes all the more significant given the fact that the TMC is on the verge of a break-up and the Congress has alienated the DMK. At the INDIA bloc meeting, both Akhilesh Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav are said to have remonstrated with the Congress for tying up with the TVK at the cost of the DMK. But currently, Rahul Gandhi is flying high as he knows that post the recent Assembly polls, there has been a crucial change in the chemistry of the INDIA bloc. Earlier it was the Congress that needed the allies. But now, it is the allies that need the Congress more. Akhilesh is already feeling the heat with BJP leaders dropping not so subtle hints on social media that the SP too is on the verge of a break-up. “Not my party” is what he told those who asked him about this. Perhaps he has reason to be confident. Unlike the TMC there is no Number Two who is being promoted at the expense of other leaders within the SP. There is no Abhishek Banerjee here, no Udhayanidhi Stalin and also no Tej Pratap or Misa Yadav. Unlike Mamata and M.K. Stalin, the SP chief has age on his side. He is also in full control of the party. Unlike Tejashwi Yadav there are no relatives trying to snatch the party from him—he has already fought that battle and won. Hence, his MPs know all too well that while the BJP may offer short term allurements, Akhilesh Yadav is not going anywhere. He is there for the long haul.
WHO TRIPPED MEENAKSHI NATRAJAN?
While it is the Election Commission that rejected Meenakshi Natrajan’s Rajya Sabha application on the grounds that she did not disclose that she had a complaint against her pending in a Telangana court, the sabotage seems to have come from within her own party. The Congress high command is asking who leaked the case details to the BJP? It was the BJP’s Madhya Pradesh state general secretary Rahul Kothari who filed an objection against Natrajan’s candidature, stating that she had failed to fully disclose details of a case against her in the affidavit submitted by her along with her nomination papers. The reference was to a complaint against Natrajan and some others pending before a court in Hyderabad. Since no FIR had been filed against her, the details of the case (including the fact that there was such a case) were known only to very few. In fact, it was on the advice of a senior party leader from the state, that Meenakshi did not mention this case in her affidavit (also mentioning it could have led to rejection of her candidature). But the question remains, who leaked this information to the BJP? The Congress leadership has its suspicions and is conducting an inquiry since Natrajan’s candidature was cleared by Rahul Gandhi himself. Another candidate whose Rajya Sabha nomination has run into turbulent weather is Pranav Jha. The amiable Jha is Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge’s political secretary; and has a lot of goodwill in the Congress, as well as in the media. But it looks as if the BJP-backed “independent” candidature of Parimal Nathwani could queer the pitch for him. If there is no cross-voting in Jharkhand, the Congress has the numbers, but it needs the help of its allies in the state. The message from both Natrajan’s and Jha’s candidature is that loyalty will not go unnoticed anymore within the Congress. But the moot question now is, what about disloyalty?
IT’S POLITICAL, NOT PERSONAL There is grace even in a break-up. The feisty Sushmita Dev has announced that she will be parting ways with the TMC. She is not the only one to do so, for the party seems on the verge of a split with as many as 20 of its Lok Sabha MPs planning to leave the TMC. But unlike her colleagues, Sushmita (who was a Rajya Sabha MP from the TMC) first announced her resignation from the party. She then resigned her Rajya Sabha seat. Sushmita is still to come out with her options, though a photograph of her meeting Assam CM and BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma was a giveaway. But, unlike most others who have changed parties, she did not wait until she had secured another offer before resigning her Rajya Sabha. She gave that up and then went across for a social but politically loaded cup of tea with the Assam CM. This is not her first change-over, for Sushmita was earlier with the Congress. But even today she refers to Rahul Gandhi as Rahulji and Mamata Banerjee as Mamata-di. Opposition is political. The rest is grace. In fact as a side note, given Sushmita’s equation with Himanta back to when both were in the Congress, as well as the fact that the TMC does not have much of a presence in the Northeast, the meeting with the BJP leader happened later than sooner.
BACK TO DELIMITATION AGAIN?
What is the BJP planning for the monsoon session? It does appear that the Modi government has not yet given up on its Delimitation Bill that was voted out during the special session of Parliament in April. This was the one takeaway amongst the journalists after attending the celebratory events to commemorate Modi Government’s 12 years in office. Since this is a constitutional amendment bill the government needed a two-thirds majority in both the Houses to pass this. Having failed once, the government has clearly not given up; and the Bill remains very much a priority (clubbed as it is with the Women’s Reservation Bill). This would explain the frantic activity to woo Mamata Banerjee’s MPs in order to make the requisite numbers. BJP leaders also claim that the DMK, with its group of 22 MPs would either support the bill or abstain from voting. This is slightly hard to believe, because the DMK was one of the vociferous opponents of the entire delimitation exercise, painting it as anti South. But, at the same time, it is also true that the DMK is piqued with the Congress for breaking off its alliance and tying up with Vijay’s TVK. The question remains—will it shoot itself in the foot just to spite the Congress?
