NEW DELHI: There will be no leadership change in Karnataka for now. According to party sources, Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi is not inclined to replace Chief Minister Siddaramaiah under pressure. Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar has reportedly been informed of this position.
The Congress’s immediate focus remains on the upcoming elections in five states. Shivakumar has been appointed observer for Assam and is assisting Priyanka Gandhi Vadra in candidate selection. The party plans to convene a meeting of the Central Election Committee on February 22 to finalise and release the first list of candidates for Kerala and Assam.
Sources indicate that Rahul Gandhi is personally handling the Karnataka matter to ensure that mistakes similar to those in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are not repeated. At that time, decision-making was diffused across multiple power centres—10 Janpath, Priyanka Gandhi and KC Venugopal—resulting in conflicting signals and delayed interventions.
In 2020, political turbulence led to the fall of the Congress government in Madhya Pradesh. The Rajya Sabha nomination issue became the flashpoint. Had negotiations with Jyotiraditya Scindia not broken down abruptly, the crisis might have been contained. Senior leader Digvijay Singh was pressing for a Rajya Sabha berth, while speculation about Priyanka Gandhi’s name from Madhya Pradesh added to internal tensions.
When asked by journalists at the time, then Chief Minister Kamal Nath publicly welcomed the idea of Priyanka’s candidature. Political manoeuvring intensified thereafter. Reports of missing Congress MLAs during the winter session of 2019 later revealed that they were housed in a Gurugram hotel. Efforts to retrieve them were led by leaders including Jitu Patwari and Jaivardhan Singh. The episode exposed internal vulnerabilities.
Ultimately, Scindia defected to the BJP in March 2020 along with supporting MLAs, bringing down the Kamal Nath government. The loss of a single Rajya Sabha seat snowballed into a regime collapse. Even Kamal Nath, while still Chief Minister, was reportedly unaware of the full scale of the operation.
Following its success in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP attempted a similar strategy in Rajasthan by targeting then state president and Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot. However, then Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot managed to prevent the government’s fall. Nevertheless, the episode weakened Congress organisationally.
Rahul Gandhi subsequently distanced himself from Sachin Pilot, though Priyanka Gandhi continued to engage with him. According to party insiders, crucial decisions that needed to be taken decisively in Delhi were delayed. On at least two occasions, Rahul is said to have considered firm action against Pilot but faced internal resistance.
Congress eventually lost Rajasthan, despite expectations of retaining the state. After the results, Rahul reportedly concluded that decisions must not be taken under pressure or on the advice of selective intermediaries. Since then, he has assumed a more direct role in key state matters.
Sources suggest that political manoeuvring resembling Rajasthan’s pattern is now visible in Karnataka. Shivakumar’s hopes are perceived to be linked to Priyanka Gandhi’s support, similar to Pilot’s earlier reliance. However, Rahul is said to be exercising greater caution.
He is understood to be opposed to the so-called “two-and-a-half-year formula” for leadership change. There is no indication that Siddaramaiah will be replaced mid-term. Instead, party sources point to the possibility of a significant cabinet reshuffle to accommodate more of Shivakumar’s supporters, thereby balancing internal equations without destabilising the government.
Any reshuffle, however, is likely only after the completion of the five-state elections in April. The broader strategy appears aimed at preventing internal fissures from escalating into a repeat of the Rajasthan or Madhya Pradesh scenarios. For now, the message from the leadership is clear: Karnataka will not witness a leadership overhaul under pressure.
