Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Maharashtra emerge as key states in reshuffle calculations.
Following the much-awaited organisational reshuffle in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), speculation over a possible reshuffle of the Union Council of Ministers has intensified in the national capital. Sources indicate that the exercise could take place within the next fortnight, although no formal announcement has been made so far. However, the composition of the BJP’s new organisational team is being seen as an indication of the political priorities that could also shape the Cabinet exercise. With several states heading for Assembly elections in 2027 and the 2029 Lok Sabha elections already in view, the reshuffle is expected to go beyond merely filling vacant ministerial positions. Performance, regional representation, social equations, alliance considerations and the redistribution of key portfolios are likely to influence the final decisions. Notably, the Union Council of ‘bihar’s Water’ Ministers currently has 69 members, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, against the constitutional ceiling of 81 prescribed under Article 75(1A). Following the departure of Dharmendra Pradhan, Ravneet Singh Bittu and George Kurian, there are 12 vacancies, giving the government significant scope to induct new faces. The movement of some ministers into organisational responsibilities has further fuelled speculation. Minister of State for Road Transport and Highways Harsh Malhotra has been appointed Delhi BJP president, while Pankaj Chaudhary has taken charge as Uttar Pradesh BJP president. Their shift to organisational roles could necessitate changes in the Union government. Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding the future parliamentary representation of some ministers is another factor being closely watched. The Rajya Sabha tenures of BL Verma and Hardeep Singh Puri are due to end in November, with no clarity yet on their continuation in Parliament. Moreover, Piyush Goyal’s appointment as BJP national treasurer has also triggered speculation. If the party decides to strictly enforce its ‘oneman, one-post’ principle, Goyal may have to relinquish either his organisational responsibility or his ministerial role. Such a move could possibly lead to a change at the Commerce and Industry Ministry. Sources also said Modi has sought performance reports from Cabinet ministers. The assessments are expected to play an important role in determining the composition of the next Council of Ministers. According to sources, the Prime Minister is not satisfied with the performance of several ministers, and some could either be shifted to other responsibilities or dropped altogether to make room for younger and newer faces. Meanwhile, electoral considerations are likely to remain central to the reshuffle. Sources said the BJP could bring in leaders from states that are scheduled to go to the polls, while simultaneously seeking to improve regional and social representation. Greater representation for youth and women is also expected to be among the considerations. Uttar Pradesh is likely to be one of the principal focus areas. With the 2027 Assembly elections approaching, sources said the BJP could consider inducting a young leader from the Thakur community. The party’s assessment of dissatisfaction within sections of the community, along with the electoral trends witnessed in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, could influence the decision. The BJP could also consider inducting a prominent woman leader from Uttar Pradesh as part of an effort to strengthen women’s representation and consolidate its support among women voters ahead of the Assembly polls. The reshuffle could simultaneously provide an opportunity to strengthen the BJP’s relationship with its NDA partners. RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary, currently a Minister of State, is among the names being discussed for elevation to Cabinet rank. His elevation could help the NDA further consolidate its political position in western Uttar Pradesh. Punjab is another state that could figure prominently in the reshuffle calculations. The BJP’s recent organisational appointments, including the elevation of Sandeep Pathak as a national secretary, have added to speculation that the party could bring a prominent Punjab leader into the Union ministry. Sources said former AAP leader Raghav Chadha is among the names being discussed, though his possible induction would depend on the larger political strategy for Punjab. Harsimrat Kaur Badal, a prominent woman leader of the Shiromani Akali Dal, is also being discussed as a possible option. Her inclusion could acquire significance amid speculation about a possible revival of BJP-SAD ties. However, senior BJP leaders have indicated that the party continues to prepare for the Punjab Assembly elections independently, suggesting that any alliance-related decision remains fluid.
