Gwalior-Chambal may throw up a challenge for BJP

To reach Bhopal, parties have to keep an eye on the Gwalior and Chambal regions, among crucial deciding factors.

NEW DELHI

The Gwalior and Chambal regions have a big role to play in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections. With the announcement of poll date by the Election Commission on 17 November, all parties have announced the names of their candidates and started their campaign to rule the Bhopal Assembly. To reach Bhopal, parties have to keep an eye on the Gwalior and Chambal regions, which can prove to be the deciding factors of the election. This region may have a big role in deciding who will win the Madhya Pradesh elections.

Alone, these two regions consist of 34 seats, of which Gwalior has 21 and the remaining 13 are covered by the Chambal region. During the last election, these regions proved to be the deciding factor, as Congress won the majority of the seats.
Out of 34, Congress won 26 seats, and the BJP won 7 seats. Then came the defection of 22 MLAs from the Congress led by Jyotiraditya Scindia, and the subsequent bypolls helped the BJP climb to 16 seats in the region.

Scindia’s “betrayal” of the Congress government and bringing the BJP back to power is still a talking point here, the bastion of the erstwhile Gwalior royal family to which he belongs. As the feud between his people and older BJP leaders continues three years later, ahead of the polls, it has resulted in a mini-exodus from the BJP, including four senior leaders.

While BJP insiders talk confidently of such doubts dying once its campaign machinery led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi kicks in, many ask why the party leadership did not effect a change at the top earlier and why this “last-minute” introduction of multi-term MPs and Union ministers in the race now.

They include state Home Minister Narottam Mishra and Union Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar.

MP Home Minister Narottam Mishra is contesting the Datia seat against former MLA Rajendra Bharti of Congress, while Tomar will contest against Congress candidate Ravindra Singh Tomar in the Dimani seat of the Morena district. Since Tomar’s name was announced, it gives the idea that the BJP doesn’t want to lose these seats, as this can prove as the deciding factor.

The BJP is hopeful that Tomar will be able to bridge the fault lines that damaged its prospects in the entire Chambal-Gwalior region, which has 34 seats. However, the Union Agriculture Minister may get into trouble if the Congress candidate manages to walk away with a chunk of votes. While the presence of former MLA and BSP leader Balveer Singh Dandotiya could be a crucial factor, if he fights the elections, something that he has already announced, then conventional equations may not count.

In the 2018 elections, Dimani’s seat was won by Congress candidate Girraj Dandotiya against BJP candidate Shiv Mangal Singh Tomar by a margin of 18,477. The BJP has sent Narendra Singh Tomar from the Centre to change the scenario for them.
On the other hand, Datia’s seat was won by state Home minister Narotam Mishra in a close fight against Congress candidate Bharti Rajendra with a margin of 2,656 votes.
Experts say that Datia is a fortress for Narottam Mishra, but this time a close fight can be seen because Bharti has defeated Mishra once in Datia.