It is election season, and everyone is offering their own assessments. Some present opinion polls, others conduct electoral surveys, some share personal opinions, and others advance different kinds of projections. Above all these, however, exit polls are considered the most influential. They are seen as indicators of which party has momentum and who may ultimately win the contest. Now, public attention is fixed on the exit polls for five states presented this week by various news channels. The real test for survey agencies lies particularly in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. If the Bengal surveys prove accurate, it could mark a historic chapter in Indian politics. The Bharatiya Jana Sangh—founded by Dr. Syama Prasad Mookerjee—and its successor, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), riding on the plank of Hindutva and development, could come to power waving saffron and the tricolour.
On the other hand, if the exit poll projections in Kerala turn out to be correct, it could mark a significant milestone—where Communist parties symbolized by the red flag may no longer hold power in any Indian state. Before counting begins, the question remains: do exit polls truly predict results with precision?
In Indian elections, political parties, corporate funders, and even foreign entities seeking to gauge the prospects of future governments have, in recent years, spent crores of rupees on so-called election strategists and their survey firms. When top leaders of the Congress, BJP, or regional parties begin relying not only on opinion and exit polls but also on these agencies’ assessments of “right” and “wrong” candidates across constituencies, long-standing grassroots leaders—deeply connected with the public—often feel sidelined.
There is no doubt that, much like in the United States and Europe, surveys began decades ago as tools to understand consumer preferences and public mood ahead of elections. Election surveys originated in the United States. George Gallup and Claude Robinson conducted early surveys to gauge public opinion on government functioning. Later, similar exercises were carried out in Britain, France, Germany, and Denmark during the 1930s and 1940s.
Exit polls emerged much later. According to Time magazine, the first large-scale exit poll was conducted in 1967. American political researcher Warren Mitofsky carried out an exit poll during the Kentucky gubernatorial election. That same year, on February 15, Dutch sociologist Marcel van Dam conducted a survey during the Netherlands general elections to understand voter choices and motivations. In both instances, experts sought to determine whom people were voting for and why. Subsequently, media organizations adopted this method, and by the 1970s exit polls had rapidly become part of political culture in the United States and Western countries. Media outlets relied on exit polls to satisfy public curiosity between voting and results.
In 1980, exit polls became controversial for the first time. During the U.S. presidential election, media company NBC released exit poll results three hours before voting concluded, projecting Ronald Reagan’s victory over Jimmy Carter. Carter’s supporters strongly protested. The issue reached the U.S. Congress, and an inquiry was conducted to assess whether voters had been influenced. Following this, restrictions were imposed on releasing exit polls before the completion of voting. Many other countries later adopted similar safeguards.
In India, the first exit poll was conducted in 1957 by the Indian Institute of Public Opinion. Its head, Eric de Costa, is regarded as the pioneer of exit polling in India. In the 1990s, satellite television brought surveys into people’s homes. Doordarshan commissioned the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) to conduct nationwide election surveys. This marked the beginning of the close relationship between exit polls, Indian elections, and electronic media.
Prannoy Roy began with India Today magazine and later became the founder of a major television network. However, in the past decade, dozens of election strategists and survey firms have emerged. Like astrological predictions, occasionally one forecast proves accurate while many others fail. In such cases, agencies often defend themselves by citing statistical models or candidate weaknesses. A few years ago, sting operations exposed questionable practices of certain firms on television channels. Yet, many Western-educated political leaders continue to trust these consultants over their own state and local party workers.
Exit polls typically include questions about a voter’s age, education, and background. They examine past voting behavior and current choices, and attempt to understand why a voter supported a particular party and which issues influenced the decision.
Axis My India, a market research firm, has built considerable credibility with media institutions in recent years. The company announced plans to invest Rs 500 crore to connect with 25 crore Indian families through a digital platform focused on two-way communication and problem-solving. Founder and Chairman Pradeep Gupta stated that the investment would be raised through debt and equity dilution. Established in 1998, the company is known for conducting surveys during Lok Sabha and Assembly elections and claims to have reached nearly 8.5 crore households.
Gupta described exit and opinion polls as components of market research and articulated a vision to address the concerns of all 25 crore Indian families—an ambitious and challenging goal. Interestingly, Gupta once celebrated a successful projection by dancing in a television studio with prominent anchor Rajdeep Sardesai. On another occasion, when predictions proved incorrect, he appeared apologetic and tearful on air.
This time, exit poll projections in West Bengal have presented a divided picture. Some surveys forecast a BJP victory, while others predict that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) will retain power after 15 years in office. In a significant move, Pradeep Gupta announced that Axis My India would not release exit poll projections for West Bengal, raising questions about the credibility of such exercises. He cited unusually high non-response rates, stating that voters were reluctant to disclose whom they had voted for.
In a press release, Gupta said the company conducted structured field research across all 294 Assembly constituencies of West Bengal. A team of 80 trained surveyors, organized into 16 independent field units, interviewed over 13,250 respondents using standardized methodology. However, approximately 70 percent of voters declined to participate. While some reluctance is factored into sampling models, this level of refusal was historically high and introduced significant non-response bias.
The statement added that teams traveled more than 8,324 kilometers and had initially prepared to publish findings. However, after detailed internal review of data quality, response distribution, and statistical confidence levels, the company decided not to release projections for the state.
Thus, maneuvering and drama around election surveys continue. Observing the success of major firms, numerous smaller survey companies and self-styled strategists have entered the field. The business is flourishing. Like astrology, these exercises will continue to influence and please various sections of society, and the game will go on.
