India’s crude oil imports from Russia are set to reach a six-month high in December, defying the latest round of U.S. sanctions on Moscow’s top state-owned producers and underscoring the resilience of the trade despite heightened compliance risk.
Preliminary cargo-tracking data compiled by Kpler, an independent commodities and maritime analytics firm that uses real-time vessel movement data to track global oil flows, shows December arrivals at about 1.85 million barrels per day, slightly above November’s 1.83 million barrels per day and the highest since June’s 2.10 million barrels per day. This would mark the third consecutive monthly increase in flows.
The continued rise comes at a time when the U.S. and India are engaged in sustained discussions on trade and market access, with Washington signalling tougher scrutiny on Russian oil transactions as part of its broader sanctions enforcement. U.S. officials have warned that countries purchasing Russian crude above the G7 price cap could face penalties or tariff measures, a policy stance conveyed during several bilateral interactions over the past months. Yet the December numbers indicate that these warnings have not altered India’s procurement behaviour.
Trade analysts tracking Russian flows into Asia said the composition of Indian buyers has shifted as refiners reassess exposure to U.S.-linked financial and insurance channels. Some private refiners have moderated purchases from Russian state-linked suppliers, while others with longer-term arrangements or lower sanctions exposure have increased intake. “The headline numbers remain stable because some refiners have reduced purchases while others have increased them, resulting in a redistribution rather than a reduction,” one analyst said.
A significant portion of India’s December arrivals is concentrated at the Vadinar terminal, which Kpler estimates will receive around 658,000 barrels per day of Russian crude this month, up from 561,000 barrels per day in November and above the 2025 average of 431,000 barrels per day. A senior refinery executive said the increase reflects “front-loaded deliveries under existing term arrangements,” noting that port-level variations often arise from chartering schedules and the way suppliers consolidate shipments.
Executives said December deliveries were also driven by loading programs from Russia’s western ports that were scheduled weeks before sanctions took effect. These barrels have continued to reach India without operational disruption. “Cargo flows you are seeing in December are the result of schedules locked in several weeks earlier, and those schedules have held steady,” one of them said.
The steady rise in imports despite U.S. messaging highlights India’s emphasis on strategic autonomy in its energy policy. Officials and analysts said New Delhi has consistently maintained that its crude purchases must remain insulated from geopolitical pressure and grounded in affordability, supply security, and refinery economics. They said India’s decision-making reflects a longstanding principle that major energy choices should not be shaped by external coercive measures, especially as Russian grades continue to offer commercially attractive pricing relative to other suppliers. “Given the differentials on offer, refiners have decided that continued intake is commercially viable,” a trade specialist said.
Russia will remain India’s largest crude supplier in December, with deliveries holding steady at levels similar to those seen before the latest sanctions. While there has been a shift in which Indian refiners are lifting barrels, the overall flow has not declined. Pre-booked cargoes, term commitments, and favourable pricing have kept imports elevated even as refiners adjust compliance protocols for future transactions.
