J&K exit polls show BJP leading in Jammu, Congress-NC in Kashmir

BJP supporters during the third and final phase of Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, in Jammu on Tuesday. ANI

With 47 seats in Kashmir and 43 in Jammu, the BJP seeks a robust performance in Jammu following the abrogation of Article 370.

Srinagar: Exit polls in Jammu and Kashmir suggest that the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance is poised to secure 38-48 seats out of the 90-seat assembly, while the BJP is projected to win 23-30 seats, according to our survey. If these results hold when votes are counted on October 8, Mehbooba Mufti’s People Democratic Party (PDP) may play the role of kingmaker, with the party expected to win between 5-11 seats.
In Jammu, the BJP is likely to maintain its dominance, potentially securing 23-30 seats, while the Congress-NC alliance may win between 10-16 seats out of 43. In Kashmir, the Congress-NC is leading, with projections of 27-33 seats. The 90 assembly seats are split between 47 in the Kashmir Valley and 43 in Jammu.
The Congress and NC ran a joint campaign in Jammu and Kashmir, though they faced off in “friendly fights” in some constituencies. Overall, the Congress contested 38 seats, while the NC fielded candidates in 58. The BJP, with limited presence in the Kashmir Valley, contested 62 of the 90 seats.
The election in Jammu and Kashmir took place over three phases, with a multi-party contest featuring a variety of regional players.
In terms of vote share, the BJP is expected to win 27-31 seats in Jammu, with Congress-NC possibly securing 11-15. The PDP may only win 0-2 seats in the region. The BJP’s vote share is projected to be around 41%, while the INDIA bloc (Congress-NC) may capture 36%. The PDP’s vote share could fall to just 5%.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won two seats but secured leads in 29 assembly segments, strengthening its position in Jammu.
For these elections, the Congress has teamed up with Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference, while both the PDP and BJP are contesting independently. Additionally, Altaf Bukhari’s Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party, Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party, and Sajjad Gani Lone’s Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference are also vying for seats.
The BJP and Congress dominate the Jammu region, while the NC and PDP hold sway in the Kashmir Valley. With 47 seats in Kashmir and 43 in Jammu, the BJP is aiming for a strong performance in Jammu, especially following the abrogation of Article 370.
In the last assembly elections a decade ago, the PDP emerged as the largest party with 28 seats, followed by the BJP with 25, NC with 15, and Congress trailing with 12 seats, a loss of five compared to the 2008 elections.
Meanwhile, the J&K Lieutenant Governor (LG) is expected to nominate five MLAs to the Assembly on the advice of the Home Ministry, a process opposed by the Congress. These nominations will play a key role in government formation. This follows an amendment to the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, which was further revised in July 2023. With the addition of these nominated MLAs, the assembly will expand to 95 members, raising the majority threshold to 48 seats for forming the government.
Meanwhile, the Jammu and Kashmir Congress has hit out at the BJP and the central government over the expected nomination of five MLAs to the J&K Assembly by the Lieutenant Governor (LG), acting on the advice of the Home Ministry. Congress’ Jammu and Kashmir Chief, Tariq Hamid Karra, condemned the move, calling it “constitutional rigging” aimed at influencing the election outcome.
According to sources, these nominated MLAs will play a crucial role in government formation. The nominations follow an amendment to the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, which was further revised in July 2023. With the addition of these MLAs, the Assembly will increase to 95 members, raising the majority threshold to 48 seats needed to form the government.
National Conference (NC) Vice President and former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister, Omar Abdullah, has rejected the exit polls predicting a lead for the Congress-NC alliance.
Dismissing the projections, Abdullah expressed confidence that his party, in alliance with Congress, will form the next government in J&K. Meanwhile, the BJP has urged caution, with party leaders stating that the final outcome will be clear on October 8. “Wait for the results,” BJP leaders said, asserting that the party will emerge as the largest force in the state’s assembly elections.