NEW DELHI: The upcoming Bihar Assembly elections are shaping up to be more about caste equations and Muslim politics than development. Both the BJP-led NDA and the opposition are actively working to secure the support of backward classes and Muslim voters.
The Congress and the Mahagathbandhan alliance are making reservation and constitutional issues central to their campaign. Like the recent Lok Sabha elections, they are once again trying to win over backward classes and Muslims by promising extended reservations. Reports suggest that the alliance may give fewer tickets to upper castes this time.
On the other hand, the BJP is focusing on strengthening its caste-based alliances and highlighting Hindutva. Events like the Mahakumbh and the Waqf Bill are expected to play a key role. Behind the scenes, the RSS is pushing the narrative of nationalism and Hindutva, just as it did in other states.
Since the general elections, the BJP has countered the opposition’s narrative on reservation by emphasizing its commitment to the Constitution and Dr. B.R. Ambedkar’s ideals. The party has run several campaigns aimed at weakening the opposition’s hold over backward-class politics. Recent wins in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi have boosted BJP’s confidence, while the opposition continues to struggle.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi remains focused on backward and minority politics, despite facing internal challenges—especially in Karnataka. The caste census issue has led to a split within the ruling Congress there. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has delayed action on the caste census report, while Deputy CM D.K. Shivakumar, who belongs to the Vokkaliga community, is hesitant to support it. The Vokkaliga and Lingayat communities are reportedly against any changes in reservation policies, and their support is crucial for any government in Karnataka.
Rahul Gandhi is also pushing for the introduction of a “Rohith Vemula Act” to provide reservation benefits to Muslims alongside backward communities. While he focuses on minority rights, the BJP continues to promote polarization through its Hindutva agenda.
In Bihar, the BJP has made it clear that the NDA will contest the elections under the leadership of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Nitish, along with PM Modi, represents strong OBC leadership. Dalit leaders like Jitan Ram Manjhi and Chirag Paswan are also part of the NDA, giving the alliance a strong caste balance. The recent appointment of Mohan Yadav as CM in Madhya Pradesh and the possibility of appointing another OBC leader as BJP national president could further influence Bihar politics.
Regarding Muslim voters, the BJP is hoping the Waqf Bill will help it secure some support from the community. At the same time, BJP believes that the more the opposition criticizes the Waqf Bill, the more Hindu voters will consolidate in its favour.
The NDA has already begun smooth seat-sharing talks with its allies, with no major disputes over candidates or leadership. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan is still struggling with internal conflicts. The RJD has insisted that Tejashwi Yadav will be its chief ministerial face and has demanded 150 seats. However, the Congress has not agreed on the leadership issue or seat sharing. Additionally, the Congress’s promotion of Kanhaiya Kumar as a prominent face has reportedly upset the RJD.
Despite these differences, both RJD and Congress are aligned on the core issues: attracting backward and Muslim voters. There are indications that both parties may reduce the number of tickets given to upper-caste candidates.
The outcome of the Bihar elections could set the political tone for future state elections across the country.