New Delhi: The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is preparing for a tough and closely contested battle in the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections, with internal assessments pointing to a highly competitive race shaped by localized anti-incumbency, lack of a pan-Bihar face, and the uncertain impact of new entrants such as Prashant Kishor. Senior BJP leaders and election functionaries acknowledge that while the party machinery is active on the ground, there is no scope for complacency as the margins are expected to be narrow.
In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the NDA secured 125 seats—just above the majority mark of 122—in the 243-member House, while the Grand Alliance, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), won 110 seats. The NDA polled approximately 37.3% of the votes (BJP 19.5%, JD(U) 15.4%, others 2.4%) compared to the Grand Alliance’s 37.2% (RJD 23.1%, Congress 9.5%, Left parties 4.6%), making it one of the closest electoral verdicts in the state’s history.
A senior BJP leader told The Sunday Guardian that “the difference between winning and losing is going to come down to extremely thin margins. We are not under any illusion that this will be an easy election. Ticket distribution will be critical, and any mistake at that stage could cost us multiple seats.”
Functionaries said that one of the key challenges facing the NDA is a perceptible anti-incumbency sentiment against the Nitish Kumar-led state government, especially in rural and semi-urban pockets. “It’s not limited to urban voters. In many villages, there is dissatisfaction over jobs, local infrastructure, and the perception that the government has not lived up to expectations,” a BJP district-level organizer said.
The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) process, which has triggered a political storm after the Opposition alleged it was aimed at voter deletion and disenfranchisement of the poor and marginalized, has had a mixed response on the ground. “In some constituencies, especially in Seemanchal and parts of central Bihar, the opposition narrative has stuck. But in other areas, particularly rural zones bordering Nepal and West Bengal, many voters have praised the move. They see it as a way to prevent illegal immigrants from voting,” a senior functionary associated with the BJP’s state election war room told this newspaper.
Internally, the BJP remains divided over how Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj initiative will impact the vote arithmetic. “There is no consensus on him. Some think he may cut into anti-NDA votes, others fear he might hurt us more in specific regions like Champaran, Buxar, or Gopalganj where his campaign has had reach. As of now, there is no clear evidence of a wave in his favour, but his presence complicates the equation,” a senior BJP strategist involved in electoral planning said.
Commenting on Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) leader and Union Minister Chirag Paswan’s recent statements and increased activity in Bihar, the party leader quoted above dismissed it as a sign of ‘over enthusiasm’ and ‘window shopping’. “Everyone, including him, knows that he is a very minuscule factor in the polls. His recent statements and actions (with regard to Bihar) are more focused towards getting more seats during the seat distribution rather than anything else. His supporters believe that he is well suited to replace as a credible face when Nitish retires. However, that is not how things are on the ground,” he added while pointing out that in the last three polls (2010, 2015, 2020) the LJP has won only 6 seats overall, with an average vote share of 5.7 percent in the last three polls.
“The five seats that the LJP won in the 2024 Lok Sabha election were not because of Chirag or the candidates’ face or work. They won because they were NDA candidates and had the support of Prime Minister Narendra Modi,” another senior party functionary added.
Adding to the layer of uncertainty is the absence of a strong state-level BJP face. “Since Sushil Modi passed away last year, we haven’t had a leader in Bihar with that kind of stature, acceptability across castes, and administrative experience. There are many good people, but we don’t have one name who can match Tejashwi Yadav’s crowd appeal or Nitish Kumar’s familiarity,” a former BJP MP from Bihar said.
Beyond the lack of a mass leader, senior leaders also point to an institutional gap in the party’s electoral preparation—specifically the absence of neutral, experienced advisors who offer a macro-level perspective. “Sushil Modi had the habit of listening not just to party workers or MLAs, but also to journalists, former bureaucrats, academics, and retired police officials who understood the state. That helped him develop a non-partisan reading of voter moods. We’re missing that now,” a senior party observer said.
“Earlier, Modi ji [Sushil Modi] would regularly call on retired officials and professionals who had no political stakes but deep understanding of the regions. That input was invaluable. Now most of our feedback comes from within the political apparatus, which sometimes filters the real picture,” a Patna-based BJP leader added. According to him, the present leadership of state president Dilip Jaiswal, Deputy CM Samrat Chowdhary, and Vijay Sinha have so far stayed away from such exercises.
While the party is banking heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal popularity to tilt the scales, leaders are aware that his appeal has limitations in a state election driven by hyper-local issues and caste alignments. “Modi-ji is our X-factor. His credibility is intact and he can consolidate floating voters. But in a tight race, booth-level strategy and local candidate strength will matter more than just central messaging,” a senior BJP office-bearer said.
However, the stakes for the BJP go beyond just forming the next government in Patna. A senior leader acknowledged that a defeat in Bihar would be more than just a state-level setback. “A loss in Bihar will be a significant setback for the BJP not just here but even at the national level, given the historical political importance of Bihar in shaping national narratives and coalitions. It will energize the Opposition and damage the aura of invincibility that we have carried since 2014,” he said.
The NDA’s precarious position in many seats it narrowly won in 2020—often by margins of a few hundred to a couple of thousand votes—has prompted the party to conduct multiple internal surveys and caste-mapping exercises before finalizing candidates. “We’re going seat by seat. This is not an election where a wave can carry 20–30 extra seats. Every mistake can cost us a government,” a central BJP functionary said.
With polls expected later this year, the party is also watching developments in the Opposition camp, including seat-sharing talks between the RJD, Congress, and Left parties, which remain unclear as of now. “If the Grand Alliance splits or bickers, it helps us. But if they present a united front and pick candidates wisely, then we have a real contest,” a senior BJP minister said.
There is also a widespread internal understanding that Nitish Kumar is likely to retire from active politics after the election, largely due to age and health-related considerations. BJP leaders, however, do not expect this to significantly alter the NDA’s vote share in the upcoming polls. “This is not a factor that’s going to either hurt us or help us in a big way. Most voters have realized that Nitish ji is in the final phase of his political career. It’s not a new or disruptive element anymore,” a BJP office-bearer said.
