NEW DELHI: The recent electoral performances of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in Bihar and the Maharashtra civic elections have signalled the steady rise of Asaduddin Owaisi’s party among minority voters, posing a fresh challenge for the Congress, which has traditionally relied on this constituency.
AIMIM’s growing footprint has unsettled the Congress leadership, particularly as minority voters appear increasingly willing to explore alternatives beyond the grand old party. For decades after Independence, minorities largely backed the Congress, but recent trends suggest that this loyalty can no longer be taken for granted.
While the Congress is attempting to rebuild its organisation through its Sangathan Srijan initiative and reclaim its traditional vote bank, party leaders privately concede that the task is becoming harder as AIMIM expands beyond its Hyderabad stronghold. Over the past few years, Owaisi’s party has made inroads into Bihar, Maharashtra and parts of Uttar Pradesh, altering established political equations.
A senior Congress leader from the minority wing told The Sunday Guardian that AIMIM is directly eating into the Congress vote base. According to him, the party has also weakened regional forces such as the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led RJD, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP. Others within the Congress, however, warn that the longer-term threat is more pronounced for the Congress, particularly in states where it is struggling to revive itself.
Bihar’s Seemanchal region offers a clear example. Once considered a Congress-RJD stronghold, the region witnessed AIMIM’s breakthrough in the last two Assembly elections. Ahead of the Bihar polls, AIMIM had written to RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav seeking inclusion in the Mahagathbandhan, demanding only five seats. The proposal was rejected by both the RJD and the Congress, which labelled AIMIM the “B-team” of the BJP. When the results were declared on November 14, the Congress managed to win only six seats, sharply down from the 19 it had secured in 2020. AIMIM, contesting on its own, won five seats. In the 2020 Assembly elections as well, AIMIM had won five seats, though its MLAs later defected to the RJD. By 2025, AIMIM had emerged as a significant spoiler in Seemanchal, hurting the Mahagathbandhan in several constituencies.
A Congress leader acknowledged that Owaisi’s development-focused pitch for Seemanchal—a region dominated by economically deprived Muslim communities—resonated more strongly than the Congress’s narrative, contributing to the erosion of its minority support.
AIMIM’s momentum continued in the recently concluded Maharashtra civic and Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections. The party won 124 seats across 13 municipal corporations. In Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, it outperformed the Congress by winning 33 seats. It also secured 21 seats each in Vidarbha and Malegaon, 14 in Nanded, 10 in Dhule and eight in Solapur. In the BMC polls, AIMIM won eight corporate seats—more than both factions of Sharad Pawar’s NCP and the Raj Thackeray-led MNS.
The results also dealt a blow to the Samajwadi Party in Mumbai, with AIMIM breaching the SP’s traditional stronghold in the Govandi-Mankhurd belt, represented by four-time MLA Abu Asim Azmi.
With Assembly elections due in Assam and West Bengal, AIMIM is now exploring alliances in both states, which have sizeable minority populations. In Assam, it is believed that AIMIM could align with the AIUDF after the Congress ruled out any tie-up with Badruddin Ajmal’s party. In West Bengal, a possible alliance with the Indian Secular Front, founded by cleric Abbas Siddiqui, is being discussed. Such alliances could further dent the Congress’s electoral prospects.
Congress spokesperson and CWC member Pawan Khera, however, dismissed concerns over AIMIM’s rise. Speaking to The Sunday Guardian, he said polities based on religion or caste was unhealthy for democracy and asserted that the Congress remained an inclusive umbrella party committed to equality, as enshrined in the Constitution.
With Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections next year, Congress fears AIMIM alliances with leaders like Chandrashekhar Azad or Swami Prasad Maurya could spoil prospects for both Congress and the Samajwadi Party, with potential effects on the 2029 Lok Sabha polls.
