Pradhan’s resignation may prompt tougher decisions as PM Modi weighs political challenges ahead of crucial state elections.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s direct intervention has finally borne fruit. The government, which was in crisis due to the student protests, has received significant relief following the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan. It is now expected that the second week of the Monsoon Session will proceed smoothly starting Monday.
However, it is certain that PM Modi’s future political approach will be quite different, as this was the first time in his 24-year tenure that he faced such a stiff challenge—one that put the government in a difficult spot. PM Modi may now adopt a tougher stance, and we might see even stricter decisions in the coming days. There are indications that he could even make surprising moves, such as a minor reshuffle across certain ministries, to repair the government’s tarnished image and maintain the trust of allies.
While the entire Opposition, including the Congress, extended its support to the student protests in its own way, the ‘Cockroach Janata Party’ could also emerge as a source of trouble for them. The demeanour of the party’s leader, Abhijeet Dipke, and his associates makes it clear that they intend to enter mainstream politics as a formal political party in the near future. Their agenda during the protest largely mirrored that of the Congress—featuring images of Ambedkar and the red-covered Constitution—signaling a race to become the champion of the backward classes. If this happens, the opposition faces the greatest risk. Abhijeet appears to be following a path somewhat similar to that of Arvind Kejriwal, and various anti-Modi forces seem to be backing him from behind the scenes.
Although Abhijeet succeeded in mobilising the youth over the issue of paper leaks, the events that unfolded at Jantar Mantar over the past week have sent out several signals. The most significant indication was an attempt to destabilize the NDA government at the Centre and target PM Modi, aiming to spread anarchy and tarnish the government’s image. However, PM Modi managed the situation by focusing on—and successfully securing—an end to the protests. As soon as PM Modi took charge three days ago, he initiated a dialogue with the protesters; Sonam Wangchuk ended his fast, and sweeping changes were made within the Education Department. Additionally, a stringent law was enacted to address paper leaks. Ultimately, Pradhan resigned, defusing the entire situation. Following Pradhan’s resignation, all eyes will be on whether PM Modi introduces the Delimitation Amendment Bill during the monsoon session—thereby bolstering the NDA’s unity and strength—or decides to defer it. On Monday, the government will attempt to corner the opposition by tabling the amendment bill addressing paper leaks in both Houses; the government will also use this bill to gauge its own strength.
Notably, the Vande Mataram Amendment Bill has already been introduced in the Rajya Sabha. Most of the eight Bills the government intends to introduce during the Monsoon Session are amendment bills, requiring a two-thirds majority for passage. While the government can muster a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha, it will need the support of parties like the DMK in the Lok Sabha.
Although the Delimitation Bill has not been mentioned in the agenda so far, the Foreign Regulation Amendment Bill—which is included—will be crucial; it seeks to establish accountability regarding the receipt and utilization of foreign funds. The Congress has already opposed this amendment bill, which also requires a two-thirds majority. PM Modi took a positive step by securing Pradhan’s resignation. He had previously demonstrated magnanimity in 2021 by withdrawing the three farm laws with an eye on the 2022 Uttar Pradesh elections, thereby ending the year-long farmers’ protest. Currently, elections in five states, including Uttar Pradesh, are just around the corner.
Until now, passing the Delimitation Bill alongside other key bills during the monsoon session was a priority for Prime Minister Modi. However, that priority might now shift, and the Delimitation Bill could be deferred to the next session. This is because elections are scheduled for the end of the year in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur. Except for Punjab, the BJP holds power in all these states; consequently, winning elections in these regions is likely to become the Prime Minister’s primary objective. Elections will be underway in these states during the Winter Session.
While Prime Minister Modi will certainly focus on the strategy for these states, the emphasis will also be on expanding the political alliance. Efforts will be made to bring Sharad Pawar’s NCP and other smaller parties into the fold. Reports of Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde visiting Delhi have already heated up the political atmosphere in Maharashtra.
